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Weather guide Easter Monday to Sunday April 27th 2014

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TonyH

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[b]Quite warm and unsettled; rain or showers at times, but dry, bright spells too.[/b][/font]
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A generally mild and dry week gone, Ceredigion in particular seeing some rather warm conditions of 17c in the first half of the week, although it did turn somewhat cooler from Friday. High sunshine amounts too early in the week especially, Coventry had almost unbroken sunshine from Sunday to Wednesday totalling 43.7 hours for these 4 days while Llanwnnen had an estimated 62 hours over the week.. With clear skies nights were chilly with frosts, many rural areas getting a night or two below zero, Llanwnnen getting down to -2.2c on Friday night, however the cities were milder, the Urban Heat Island of Coventry keeping minima above 1.5c all week. Most places have had a completely dry week, at Llanwnnen there have now been 12 consecutive dry days. [/font]
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A much more unsettled week to come although still with some rather warm and dry weather at times. A low is moving NW along the English Channel during Sunday bringing wet and windy weather to southern England. Much of Wales and the Midlands may well escape the worst of this rain, but a rather cloudy and quite windy afternoon and evening in prospect, although there may be sunny intervals at first. The rain area to the south then pushes northwards into our regions, most of this should be quite light and patchy before some heavier stuff affects southern parts of Wales and the SW Midlands later this afternoon and evening perhaps with thunder. On the mild side for Sunday maxima between 14 and 16c. Most of the rain dying out after midnight, a mild night lows around 8c. The low is quite close by our SW on Monday so an unsettled day with showery rain breaking out especially afternoon and for the Midlands, SW Wales may escape with little. Some sunny intervals too and with a rather warm ESE flow temperatures reaching 16 to 18c, so not a bad Easter Monday if you avoid the rain! A slack lowish pressure regime for Tuesday so lighter winds but with rain or showers in places once more, but some places staying generally dry. Highs 13c where wet but a mild 17c possible should it brighten. No frost again on Tuesday night as with much of this week.[/font]
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Atlantic air is attempting to move over the UK mid week associated with low pressure in the mid Atlantic, but with still something of a rather warm Continental feed into the east. Maybe a dry start to Wednesday but showery rain about through the afternoon which does not preclude some warm sunny intervals especially for the Midlands. Highs between 13 and 17c, best most likely for the Midlands. Pressure becoming ill-defined again on Thursday, a slack synoptic pattern so less wind than on Wednesday but with showers, perhaps a longer spell of rain in places, temperatures not bad again reaching 14 to 16c as some sunny intervals should occur. Just the chance of a ground frost Thursday night then speculatively dry and bright on Friday but too far off for sure. Next weekend looks unsettled too with quite a deep low moving towards SW Britain, this would bring showers and longer spells of rain and some strong winds. April looking like finishing on a cool and changeable note.[/font][font=Helvetica]
[attachment=211195:PPVG89 rain i n places EM.png][attachment=211196:ecmt850.048 slackening Tu.png][attachment=211197:PPVL89 some rain Wed.png][attachment=211198:ecmt850.096 some rain Wed.png][attachment=211199:ecmt850.120 slack mild some showers TH.png][attachment=211200:ecmt850.144 dry poss FRi.png][attachment=211201:ecmt850.168 L SW unsettled weekend.png][attachment=211202:prcpWarwickshire some rain at times.png][attachment=211203:prmslWarwickshire unsettled weeek.png][attachment=211204:t850Warwickshire mostly mild week.png][/font]
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