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Weather guide Monday 31st March to Sunday 6th April 2014

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Often warm with rain in places and thunder chances to mid week; Thursday perhaps wet, then cooler and changeable[/b][/font]
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Some places,particularly the Midlands saw their coldest temperature for a year last Sunday, widely -3c or -4c and colder than anything the mild Winter could offer. Here at Llanwnnen it fell to -3.9c but was only the lowest since November (-7c), many nights saw at least a ground frost last week. The Midlands had a lovely dry and bright Moday, but a slow moving front made it a wet afternoon across SW Wales. West Wales fared best overall last week, seeing the best of the sunny spells and less of the showers compared with the Midlands, where hail and thunder featured highly. On Thursday afternoon the temperature at Coventry dropped from 9c to just 3c with hail, sleet and thunder in the area. There was some snow cover for high ground such as the Brecon Beacons at times last week, temperatures generally being on the cool side, although West Wales managed some days up to an average 11 or 12c. Showers more widespread on Friday, Coventry and some other parts getting thunderstorms and large hail, this up to 2cm in diameter at Gaydon, Warwickshire. A big change in the weather this weekend, as SE winds have introduced warm air off the Continent, on Saturday 16c was reached for West Wales in places and 18c for parts of the Midlands where it was also a sunny day. [/font][font=Helvetica]


More very mild even warm weather in the coming week although with rain or showers at times too, and cooling off somewhat from Thursday. Sunday, a largely dry afternoon with spells of hazy sunshine. especially for the Midlands again, just the chance of some light showers for Pembrokeshire as a front wriggles over the Irish Sea. Highs between 17 and 20c this afternoon, way above the late March average of 12c. A keen SE breeze however. A largely dry, mild night no lower than 6c. Fronts move into the SW during Monday bringing more in the way of cloud and with showery rain in places, this turning heavier and more prolonged across Wales afternoon, with the chance of thunder. Some showers for the West Midlands although much of the East Midlands escaping with a dry, bright and rather warm day. Maxima ranging from 13c for Pembrokeshire to 17c for the East Midlands, the breeze less of a feature on Monday. Things drying up through Monday night with clear spells and a grass frost in places. A low pressure anchored west of Spain continues to control our weather through to mid week dragging some further warm air from the SE. Tuesday may well be a dry day with spells of hazy sunshine and highs of 17 to 19c, very good for the start of April! Just the chance of some rain flirting with Pembrokeshire later in the day. The Continental feed of air continues for Wednesday so another warm one, highs 16 to 19c for most places, sunny intervals but also showers breaking out in places too, perhaps thundery. A fresh SE wind on Wednesday knocking the edge off the temperatures.

Thursday could be a day of sharp contrasts, a slow moving front across western parts, with West Wales perhaps wet and much cooler, while the Midlands could see another warm day with rain holding off until later in the day? 20c for the East Midlands but only 12c for wetter West Wales. This could change but a wet day for some on Thursday seems likely, and with thunder for a few areas too. Great variabilty and uncertainty in the weather models for the end of the week but a somewhat cooler prospect is expected with further rain at times for Friday and next weekend, but there should also be some pleasant dry interludes, so a mixed bag really. Temperatures probably close to or a little above average at 12 to 15c max and with frost unlikely.
[attachment=210210:PPVG89 mild showery rain Mon.png][attachment=210211:h850t850eu mild unsettled Mon.png][attachment=210212:PPVJ89 m dry warm Tue.png][attachment=210213:h850t850eu warm m dry Tue.png][attachment=210214:ecmt850.072 dry warm Tue.png][attachment=210215:PPVL89 Wed warm some showers.png][attachment=210216:h850t850eu Wed thundery potential warm.png][attachment=210217:PPVL89 Wed warm some showers.png][attachment=210218:metslp.120 unsettled wet in places Thu.png][attachment=210219:PPVO89 Potentiually wet WW warm Mids.png][attachment=210219:PPVO89 Potentiually wet WW warm Mids.png][attachment=210220:ecmt850.144 messy FR Sa still r warm.png][attachment=210221:h850t850eu cool wet outlier weekend.png][attachment=210222:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion rain at times this week.png][attachment=210223:t850Sir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion warm mid week then cooling.png][attachment=210224:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font]
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