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Weather guide Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th March 2014

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable with some rain at times; drier and milder prospects from mid week, especially Midlands[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The West Wales deluge is over! After one of the wettest Seasons on record, here at Llanwnnen 782mm the total rain for December to February, or two and a half feet! At Coventry only Winter 1976/ 77 has been wetter since 1870 ([url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]https://twitter.com/bablakewx[/url] ) . As well publicised this has been the wettest Winter on record averaged out across the whole of Wales and England, however statistics do not tell the whole story, and for some eastern parts it has been unremarkable regards rainfall, with a few places actually below average. There have though been a couple of wetter Seasons in the past, Autumn 2000 holds that crown by a fair margin with 502.7mm the England and Wales figure compared to 450.8mm for this Winter overall.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Some February rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 287.4mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 149.9mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Aberdaron: 124mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 74.4mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Rugby: 51.4mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington: 145.2mm[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The Valleys and Brecon Beacons of Wales exceeded 400mm in places! In contrast parts of Lincolnshire had less than 40mm.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The Winter was also very notable for its lack of cold and snow, with most low lying areas seeing no lying snow at all - even the hills of Mid Wales have seen precious little. We have had completely snow free Winters before but they are uncommon, and often they are followed by a snowfall or two sometime during March or April. Something of an improvement in weather fortunes this week, with some dry and mild periods mid week onwards, the Midlands better favoured for this.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Bits and pieces of rain and drizzle become more continuous and heavier through Sunday afternoon across Wales and onto the Midlands by early evening along with a fresh to strong SSW wind. The rain clears overnight with a deep low centred over SW England by dawn Monday. This low then fills out over southern England through Monday with light air flows close to it. This means some slow moving downpours likely across Wales and the Midlands, with Cardigan Bay and NW Wales perhaps missing the worst of these. Elsewhere though some very heavy showers knocking about with hail and thunder in places, there should be some sunny intervals between them. Highs of 8 or 9c which is close to the early March average, with fairly light winds. Showers dying out on Monday night for the Midlands but a few keep on for West Wales, where clearances permit a local ground frost, down close to 0c for some inland parts. A very unconvincing ridge tries to dry things out for Tuesday but troughs and lows are surrounding it and so we should not expect a completely dry day as there will be showers, even some longer spells of rain in places, hard to say where exactly. Temperatures again close to average around 9c. Clear spells may well lead to a widespread ground frost on Tuesday night with any showers dying out and little in the way of wind. A proper ridge over southern Britain on Wednesday so much better prospects for a dry day. Fairly mild with sunny intervals although a weak warm front may be bringing drizzle to West Wales by evening. Highs 10 or 11c. Clearing skies means another ground frost and it may well touch zero somewhere.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]High pressure then lies close to southern and eastern UK for the rest of the week and into next weekend, so the best of the weather always over SE England while Atlantic fronts bring spells of rain to the NW. Wales and the Midlands inbetween and so experiencing some decent dry conditions but with the risk of rain extending this far south at times too. SW winds will bring mild air however, and so where it brightens, and best prospects for this are the Midlands then some pretty high temperatures for early March can be expected, with even the first 60f of the Spring a possibility by the weekend. Thursday then looks a generally dry and mild day, sunny intervals especially for the Midlands and South Wales although a front over northern Britain may affect NW Wales with some rain or drizzle possible here later in the day. Mild highs 10 to 12c but with a keen SW wind developing especially over Wales. A more active frontal system may cross all parts on Thursday night with rain for Wales which then affects the Midlands for a time on Friday, but it could be that the high close by kills off the worst of this leaving a mainly dry picture again. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Potential for an incursion of very mild air next weekend, with Saturday most favoured for dry bright and quite warm conditions, the Midlands perhaps reaching 14 to 16c (61f). This scenario still by no means certain, however it should be a dry, mild day at least. Rain may affect West Wales late on Saturday and here more cloud and wind pegging temperatures closer to 12 or 13c. A spell of rain is then likely to cool things off for next Sunday. [/size][/font]
[attachment=208615:PPVG89 SM showers Mon.png][attachment=208616:PPVJ89 drier Tue some rain about though.png][attachment=208617:h850t850eu some rain about others stay dry Tu.png][attachment=208618:PPVL89 Wed m dry.png][attachment=208619:ecmt850.096 m dry Wed.png][attachment=208620:PPVO89 dry VM MIds some rain WW THU.png][attachment=208621:ecmt850.120 dry mild Mids rain later WW THu.png][attachment=208622:ecmt850.168 potentially VM Sat rain late WW.png][attachment=208623:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=208624:mild from mid week.png][attachment=208625:viewimage above 1020 from TH.png][attachment=208626:viewimage m dry Mids from Wed.png]
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