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Weather guide Monday 24th February to Sunday 2nd March 2014

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TonyH

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[size=3][font=arial][b]Headline: Unsettled, rain or showers at times; temperatures mild to average; drying next weekend[/b]

A relaxation in the stormy wet weather last week, although we all saw some rain and wind at times, rainfall only amounted to 28.2mm here for the past 7 days and just 8.4mm at Coventry. There were some pleasant, mainly dry conditions at times, in particular for the Midlands. Wednesday the mildest of the year so far in some places with Hereford reaching 13.3c and Trawscoed 12c with sunny intervals, although Carmarthenshire had a cloudy, drizzly day and just 9c the high. Thursday was the mildest night of the month to that point, lows just 7.3c here and 7.9c at Coventry for example. Then a very mild day with sunny spells for the Midlands on Thursday Coventry reaching 12.2c. Any frosts that occured were only slight as has been the pattern all Winter, that of infrequent frost next to no snow. With only a few days remaining of 'Meteorological Winter' (Dec 1st to Feb 28th) the coldest night has failed to fall lower than -3c here in the frost hollow of Llanwnnen, most Winters would see at least -8c.

Strong winds on Sunday, gusts of 55mph at Llanwnnen and 93mph Capel Curig this morning. A mild moist SW flow over the country today, some western parts seeing large rainfall totals by Monday morning, in particular Snowdonia where over 50mm is expected in the next 24 hours. So a wet Sunday afternoon and evening for much of West Wales along with strong to gale force winds, the Midlands just seeing a little light rain and drizzle from time to time. Very mild, last night most places remained above 8c and with highs between 10 and 12c this afternoon. Further rain overnight for Wales, heavy in places, and again intermittent light rain for the Midlands. No lower than 7c for the Midlands, but the cold front comes through West Wales by dawn with a clearance and much lighter winds so lows of 4 or 5c here. The cold front lingers across the Midlands with spells of rain through Monday morning before becomimg mostly dry for the afternoon. For West Wales on Monday some sunny intervals along with some mainly light showers, highs a mild 8 to 10c. By Monday evening a deep low is approaching Ireland with further wet and windy weather into Wales, this reaching the Midlands around midnight. This rain band soon clears through all areas by dawn on Tuesday, leaving a day of blustery showers and sunny intervals. For West Wales plenty of showers, heavy and prolonged at times with hail in places, but relatively few for the Midlands, although even here some heavy ones in places. Windy on Tuesday with gales for coasts and hills of Wales, highs 7 to 9c. Strong winds and showers dying down on Tuesday night, some keeping going across West Wales though and these could turn wintry over the Brecon Beacons, lows of 2 to 4c. Low pressure to our north on Wednesday so still some showers about, but a better chance that some areas miss these and get a fine, bright, mostly dry day, in other places though the showers line up to give wet spells through the day. Highs on Wednesday between 7 and 9c again, a little above the late February average. Breezy rather than windy for Wednesday. A rather squally band of rain looks like crossing over during Wednesday night but should be cleared by dawn.

Thursday then looks like another showery day with longer spells of rain in places, some sunny intervals too. Highs again above average with quite a breeze, but turning colder pm with perhaps wintry showers over the hills by evening. Low pressure still close by although perhaps filling up by Friday, so less in the way of wind but there will still be areas of showery rain about, although a few areas may stay predominantly dry. HIghs likely to be aroud the average of 7 or 8c. By Saturday fewer showers as the low edges east into the near Continent, a slack NNE flow over the UK, highs around 7c. A good signal from the models that a strong ridge of high pressure builds across by Sunday bringing the highest barometer readings since January, perhaps even attaining 1020mbar! Should this play out then a frosty start to Sunday with a lovely fairly sunny day, although perhaps a little chilly for early March at 7c max or so. Don't get your hopes up however, as the models are not yet convinced of a prolonged spell of dry, bright weather![/font][/size]
[font=arial][size=1][attachment=208268:PPVG89 rain to some showers Mon.png][attachment=208269:PPVJ89 blustery showers Tue pro WW.png][attachment=208270:ecmt850.072 showery Tue.png][attachment=208271:PPVJ89 blustery showers Tue pro WW.png][attachment=208272:PPVL89 showers in places Wed.png][attachment=208273:PPVO89 showery Th.png][attachment=208274:ecmt850.144 showers about Fri less wind.png][attachment=208275:ecmt850.168 fewer showers Sat.png][attachment=208276:ecmt850.192 strong R frost dry Sun.png][attachment=208277:h850t850eu frost dry Sun.png][attachment=208278:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire wet at times WW.png][attachment=208279:prcpWarwickshire rain at times.png][attachment=208280:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
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