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Weather guide Monday 17th to Sunday 23rd February 2014

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Changeable with rain at times but drying out between times; mild to mid week then cooler and showers maybe wintry in places[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Another soaking for many of us last week, February is turning into an exceptionally wet month across West Wales and at the half way point an astounding 213mm here in Ceredigion, the near relentless rains difficult to comprehend even for this wet area! Wetness not extreme for the central Midlands but still in excess of the February average of 40 - 50mm already, although some places such as Rugby have been drier. This has meant few flooding issues across Warwickshire and Leicestershire this month, the rivers coping well compared to the Thames and Severn the catchments which have been receiving exceptional quantities of rain since December. Some places saw snow last week, generally hardly any, but the A44 inland from Aberystwyth near the Red Kite Centre was closed on Tuesday morning by heavy snow, and snow fell for a while across much of the Midlands though not amounting to much at low levels. Not a completely snowless Winter at least for some! Another feature of the week gone were the high winds on Wednesday and again Friday which caused extensive damage and disruption, power outages and brought trees down. Highest gusts on Tuesday:[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Aberdaron 108mph[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Mumbles 96mph[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Aberporth 87mph[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen 61mph[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Coventry 57mph[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington 68mph[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Then on Friday South Wales and the Midlands hit hard, Coventry having a gust of 60mph which was the equal highest on record at the city centre site, while Little Rissington in the Cotswolds saw 67mph, these damaging winds for inland. Friday was eventually a mild day after some morning sleet in places, many places reaching 10 or 11c. Atmospheric pressure was below 1000mbar from February 3rd to 15th - a measure of this remarkably unsettled, wet and stormy spell, and doubtful that this has happened for a very long time. At last on Sunday a respite with, unusually for Winter 2014, a calm, frosty sunny morning! Although we will be getting some dry interludes in the week ahead, especially much of Tuesday and Wednesday - the overall picture remains unsettled right to the end of the month, so further wet and windy weather at times is the longer outlook. Yet again a largely snowless week coming up and although there will be some frosts, these never harsh. Damaging winds are not expected in the week ahead, nor is significant flooding in our regions[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A welcome ridge of high pressure giving the calm, dry and quite sunny conditions on Sunday, highs of 7 to 9c, feeling very pleasant out this afternoon for a change.[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Still clear this evening for the Midlands with a frost forming, but clouding over for West Wales preventing frost here, and with light rain into SW Wales by midnight. Rain at times for Wales after midnight, some perhaps rather heavy, and it clouds over the Midlands lifting the frost here, with some rain possible by dawn. A flabby low close to Ireland on Monday, not a windy day but a damp if not especially wet one for the Midlands, more distinctly wet at times for West Wales, some rather heavy bursts here at times. Highs of 7 to 9c again but not feeling pleasant like in Sunday's sunshine. Most of the rain has cleared away by midnight, but still bits and pieces through the night and too much cloud for any frost, lows around 5c. Nothing much going on for Tuesday, a gentle mild westerly flow bringing a few showers along with sunny breaks, so not a bad day for most, up to 10c in places. A mostly dry, quiet night to follow, any clearances leading to a ground frost locally, but not near coasts. The odd shower cannot be ruled out though.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Another largely dry day on Wednesday too, as a transient ridge passes over, some sunny intervals especially for the Midlands. Quite a mild day again highs around 10c. A deep low pressure will on Wednesday night..not be heading our way for once..rather following a more traditional path south of Iceland! This does though bring rain and strengthening SW winds to Wales late Wednesday afternoon or evening, some of this heavy, this rain then affecting the Midland by midnight. We will be in a warm sector so temperatures no lower than 6 to 8c, very mild for a February night. As the cold front comes through during Thursday morning a secondary low feature may form on this enhancing the rain where it does develop, this may be over the north or further south. It seems then that some of us could have a wet Thursday morning, but it is likely that this clears to sunshine and showers afternoon, these particularly for West Wales where there will be hail in them. Highs on Thursday occurring in the morning at 7 to 10c, mildest for South Wales and the South Midlands, then with a cool down expected afternoon along with a fresh west or NW wind making it feel chilly. Continuing showers for Welsh coasts and hills overnight Thursday could be turning wintry, certainly for high ground, and a ground frost forms quite widely. Friday and low pressure could be centred over the North Sea with a chilly showery NW flow, again wintriness can be expected for hilly areas. As is typical in a showery NW flow, Cardigan Bay, Snowdonia and the NW Midlands most affected by showers while some other areas escape. Highs on Friday a cool 5 to 7c with quite a fresh NW breeze. Too far off to be sure but a ridge could dry things up with a frost on Friday night? [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Even more of a split in the options weatherwise for next weekend, best guess is a dry, fine Saturday followed by some rain on Sunday, but do not hold me to this! The weather then looks like it will become very disturbed, often wet and windy for the final 4 or 5 days of the month.[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=207859:PPVG89 Mon rain times.png][attachment=207860:ecmt850.048 L Ire rain times Mon.png][attachment=207861:PPVJ89 few showers mild Tu.png][attachment=207862:PPVM89 m dry mild Wed rain to WW eve.png][attachment=207863:ecmt850.096 mild wet Wed night.png][attachment=207864:ukprec heavy rai n possible Th morning.png][attachment=207865:h850t850eu rain to showers Th.png][attachment=207866:PPVO89 TH rain am to showers.png][attachment=207867:metslp.120 potential sec L TH wet in places.png][attachment=207869:h850t850eu wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=207869:h850t850eu wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=207870:ecmt850.168 dry Sat rain Sun.png][attachment=207871:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire Rain times some heavy.png][attachment=207872:prcpWarwickshire some rain dry interludes.png][attachment=207873:prmslWarwickshire mostly L R Wed.png][attachment=207874:t850Warwickshire mild to mid week then cooling.png][attachment=207875:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]

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