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Weather Models Experiment 2013 Results

Zenarcher

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Welcome to the weather model experiment of 2013, in 2011 the ECM won it and in 2012 the UKMO won it but what model performed the best through out this experiment? It took place in December 2013.

These are the 9 models that took part in this experiment and some of them are new the NAVGEM, NASA and CMA which have never been tested before against the rest.

GFS
ECM
UKMO
JMA
GME
GEM
NAVGEM
NASA GEOS5
CMA

So how does it work? I let each model do its 12z runs and I pick a random location at different time periods and then wait for that day to arrive and check the actual conditions and weather reports, whatever model gets it more accurate gains more points. The longer range forecast for example 144 hours awards more points than 24 hours.

[b]24 Hours -[/b] UKMO performed the best closely followed by GEM and JMA. The GFS is surprisingly at the bottom struggling to gain points.

1. UKMO 17
2. GEM 16
3. JMA 15
4. ECM 14
5. GME 11
6. NASA GEOS5 9
7. CMA 9
8. GFS 7
9. NAVGEM 7

[b]48 Hours -[/b] The ECM takes the most points here followed by JMA and GEM. Both the UKMO and GFS performed slightly poorer than expected.

1. ECM 30
2. JMA 27
3. GEM 25
4. NAVGEM 25
5. NASA GEOS5 24
6. GFS 23
7. UKMO 20
8. GME 20
9. CMA 12

[b]72 Hours -[/b] Once again the ECM is on top followed by the GFS which is much higher up this time.

1. ECM 53
2. GFS 43
3. NAVGEM 33
4. UKMO 24
5. JMA 24
6. GEM 24
7. NASA GEOS5 28
8. GME 22
9. CMA 22

[b]96 Hours - [/b] JMA managed to just gain a few more points here than the ECM. The GEM model wasn't too far behind either. Once again we see the UKMO and GFS score slightly lower than you would expect.

1. JMA 53
2. ECM 50
3. GEM 48
4. NAVGEM 27
5. UKMO 23
6. GFS 20
7. NASA GEOS5 16
8. CMA 7

[b]120 Hours -[/b] GEM sits at the top 9 points clear of the JMA as the GFS really struggled at this point.

1. GEM 52
2. JMA 43
3. ECM 41
4. NAVGEM 35
5. UKMO 30
6. CMA 18
7. NASA GEOS5 15
8. GFS 13

[b]144 Hours -[/b] GEM continued to stay strong in the longer range as it sits 30 points ahead of the ECM in second while NAVGEM performed really badly.

1. GEM 93
2. ECM 63
3. JMA 58
4. UKMO 48
5. GFS 41
6. CMA 28
7. NAVGEM 8

[size=5][b]Total Points Gained[/b][/size]

[b]Best Models Between 24 and 72 Hours - [/b]The ECM is the clear winner here gaining the most points within the first 72 hours followed by the GFS and JMA. The UKMO scored slightly lower than I expected it to.

1. ECM 97
2. GFS 73
3. JMA 66
4. GEM 65
5. NAVGEM 65
6. UKMO 61
7. NASA GEOS5 61
8. GME 53
9. CMA 43

[b]Best Models Between 96 and 144 Hours -[/b] It's fair to say GEM performed really well here while the ECM and JMA were also strong and tie in points.

1. GEM 193
2. ECM 154
3. JMA 154
4. UKMO 101
5. GFS 74
6. NAVGEM 70
7. CMA 53

[size=5][b]Best Overall Models[/b][/size]

[b]1. GEM 258[/b]
[b]2. ECM 251[/b]
[b]3. JMA 220[/b]
[b]4. UKMO 162[/b]
[b]5. GFS 147[/b]
[b]6. NAVGEM 135[/b]
[b]7. CMA 96[/b]
[b]8. NASA GEOS5 92[/b]
[b]9. GME 53[/b]

[b]Overall -[/b] So GEM is the 2013 winner but a very well deserved second place goes to the ECM. The JMA model also performed well during the experiment. I was surprised to see last years winner the UKMO score slightly less points this time and the GFS had a lot of bad moments. The new models done well but didn't challenge any of the bigger models.

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