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Weather guide Monday 10th to Sunday 16th February 2014

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very disturbed, spells of rain or showers on most days, any drier interludes most likely Midlands; limited wintriness[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]An exceptionally wet start to February for much of West Wales, already 129mm (over 5 inches) rainfall has fallen which is double what fell in the whole of Februaries 2012 and 2013 and is even at this early stage the wettest February since 2007 (158.4mm). Despite this flooding seems to have been relatively minor locally, with coastal flooding more of a feature than river flooding so far. Undoubtedly one of the wettest spells in the rainfall history of the area, since the start of it all on December 12th 615mm has fallen here in just 60 days! To put this into context the average annual rainfall at Coventry is about 670mm. Nowhere near as wet for the Midlands but nonetheless a wet start to the month, Coventry on 28.2mm as of this morning, which is well over half of the February average.Temperatures last week overall fairly close to the average was sometimes quite mild at other times rather chilly - this being often within the same day given the current volatility of our weather! Snow is still notable by it's absence this Winter although the Brecon Beacons did have a covering first thing on Friday. Strong winds on Saturday, gusts of 79mph at Mumbles, 65mph Aberporth, 55mph Llanwnnen, 54mph Coventry and 52mph at Coleshill, Warwickshire. A very notable feature of this Winter has been the sheer number and frequency of deep lows that have crossed the UK resulting in unusually low atmospheric pressure, besides the quantities of rain and recurring strong winds. Both Wednesday and Saturday saw the barometer fall below 970mbar across Wales and 975mbar across the Midlands, something that may usually only happen once or twice in an typical Winter. In fact at Valley on Anglesey the pressure dropped to 958mbar on Saturday. The Lampeter area and a few other parts of Wales caught a thunderstorm too on Saturday.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Little change in the weather for the coming week, continuing very unsettled with further deep lows heading our way - but surely it cannot be as wet here again! Hard to pin down details like timing really such is the speed the systems are being driven across the Atlantic by the Jet Stream, so the wet periods may vary somewhat from is detailed below, suffice to say we will all see spells of wet weather or heavy showers almost daily through the course of this week again, with the Midlands favoured to be less wet than West Wales as the hills continue to suck out the moisture. Quite cold at times too with a chance that some us see a little of the white stuff this week, more especially on Tuesday when colder air is over the UK.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Some lively rain and hail showers about Wales today - a few continuing mainly close to coasts through Sunday night but with plenty of dry conditions. Clear spells this evening leading to a fairly widespread ground frost and local air frost, however the South Midlands may cloud over with a little rain late in the night. A ridge of high pressure keeps it fairly dry throughout Monday too, after any early light rain clears the East Midlands, then just the odd shower about chiefly for West Wales. Sunny intervals, light winds and highs of 6 or 7c about average for February. Clearing skies means a ground frost sets in during Monday evening down close to zero for many areas away from the coast. An Atlantic trough moves into Wales during the early hours of Tuesday bringing fairly heavy rain, squally winds and hill snow and which soon sweeps east across the Mildands through by dawn, by which time it is clearing West Wales. As colder air tucks in behind this trough some of the rain may turn to sleet or wet snow at lower levels too for a time, this not expected to lay though except above about 1000 feet, and in case it is cleared away by midday. Sunny intervals and some showers afternoon, again with hill snow, few though getting to the Midlands. Highs on Tuesday a rather cold 4 or 5c with a keen westerly breeze. Another widespread grass frost on Tuesday night as most showers die out, 0c in places, the breeze and some continuing perhaps wintry showers preventing it from falling lower. It may be a dry, bright start to Wednesday - one of those dawns which flatters to decieve. A deepening depression is likely to move into Ireland on Wednesday bringing a further bout of wet and windy weather especially through the afternoon or evening. The exact track and timing still not certain but it has potential to bring more rough weather with attendant wind damage and flooding issues, sleet or snow is possible for higher ground of Wales. Quite a raw feeling day as temperatures may be no higher than 5 or 6c and the rain and wind. It should be clearing to blustery showers during Wednesday night, some of these heavy with hail and thunder with snow over the hills. Winds may lull enough for another ground frost by Thursday morning. Thursday looks like a day of sunny intervals and blustery showers, mostly for the west, and temperatures close to average at 6 or 7c, but with a fresh to strong westerly wind.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A great deal of uncertainty as to detail as we get to the end of the week but it will continue unsettled. For Friday yet another low may end up somewhere over the UK, most likely the south, with more wet and windy weather. Differences in the nature of the beast this far out, but again it could have potential to bring stormy conditions and flooding once more. Rain or showers at times next weekend too, most for the west, with any drier interludes more likely for the Midlands. Very tentative signs that this prolonged highly disturbed weather pattern may relinquish somewhat towards the end of February, so that we may eventually see less in the way of rain with better chances to dry out between as the Jet Stream attempts to edge north of its present highly troublesome track? This probably not enough of a submission to prevent the wettest Winter on record however.[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=206775:PPVG89 odd shower.png][attachment=206776:PPVJ89 Tu rain band hill snow am r cold.png][attachment=206777:ecmt850.072 wintry showers perhaps Tu night.png][attachment=206778:PPVL89 eventually wet windy Wed.png][attachment=206779:ecmt850.096 DL cleared to showers midnight Wed.png][attachment=206780:PPVO89 windy showery Th.png][attachment=206781:ecmt850.120 showers Th.png][attachment=206782:h850t850eu another DL FRi.png][attachment=206783:ecmt850.144 flabby channel L Fri.png][attachment=206784:ecmt850.168 unsetteld weekend.png][attachment=206785:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire another wet week.png][attachment=206786:prmslWarwickshire very unsettled week.png][attachment=206787:t850Warwickshire r cold to ave week.png][/size][/font][attachment=206788:mgram_Birmingham.png]
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