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Weather guide Monday 6th to Sunday 12th January 2013

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Drier than of late but still with rain at times; fairly mild but cooling[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Another very unsettled and often wet and windy week gone by with 88mm rain falling in the past 7 days here at Llanwnnen, 130mm at Capel Curig, Snowdonia, 70mm for Little Rissington in the Cotswolds and 40mm at Coventry, and of course there has been widespread flooding issues. The storm surge on Friday caused by strong long fetch SW winds, low atmospheric pressure along with very high tides has badly damaged parts of the West Wales coast including the promenade and sea front at Aberystwyth. A mild week too, even frost at a premium let alone snow, nothing much below zero anywhere. Thunderstorms and hail have been prominent for West Wales with some places getting thunder on 2 or 3 days last week so I hear, so if anyone can tell me details such as dates, times and location I would be grateful to enter this in my weather diary![/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Still some rain about in the coming week, but thankfully a somewhat drier picture than we have experienced through December and the New Year period, nor are gales likely to feature once we get past Monday. Still no snow but we will get some frosts eventually as we go through the week. For Sunday and Monday however yet another very deep depression is out over the Atlantic west of Ireland bringing further rain and wind for the start of the new week. Sunday was a bright start but rain and drizzle is affecting most areas this afternoon, some could be heavy for West Wales. The southerly winds strengthens with severe gale force gusts above 50mph for coasts and hills of Wales during this evening. A chilly afternoon for the Midlands, but the warm sector brings mild air to all and 10 or 11c the highs this evening. The frontal rain should clear Wales by midnight although still showers across Wales through tonight, lows of 5 or 6c by dawn with clear intervals. Rain at times perhaps lingering much of the night for the Midlands. A blustery SW wind on Monday brings plenty of showers for West Wales, these heavy with hail and possibly thunder at times, only a few showers getting across to the Midlands however. Sunny intervals too for Monday, highs a rather mild 8 to 10c, winds gusting to gale force (40 to 50mph) across Wales in particular. The wind and showers keep going for Wales on Monday night, you could see a flash of lightning here and there, but a mainly dry night for the Midlands. By Tuesday the deep low has progressed to the NW of Scotland, another fairly mild, windy and showery day in essence, the Midlands tending to miss these, while parts of West Wales get a fair few, still with hail in places. Maxima on Tuesday 7 to 9c with the wind easing during the day. Just the chance that an area of more general rain skirts the South Midlands for a time on Tuesday which could mean a wetter day south of Coventry? Low pressure filling up close to northern Scotland on Wednesday, while fronts lie close to southern England. Still too much wind for frost in this early to middle part of the week. Fewer showers about on Wednesday, more of us managing a generally dry, bright day, highs between 7 and 9c and a much lighter SW breeze. A small wave low may cross the south on Wednesday night and so it could turn into a wet evening and night.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Any rain should have cleared the Midlands by midday Thursday with a ridge of high pressure giving a generally dry afternoon with sunny intervals, just the odd scattered shower in places still, a colder day highs 4 to 6c, but light winds at least. Thursday night looks a fair candidate to be the first frosty one of the comng week, some parts getting just below zero. Perhaps another spell of rain or showers for a time on Friday but there is reasonable prospect that a firm high pressure builds over the Continent by next weekend helping to keep the Atlantic influence at bay. This change in pattern by no means unanimous, but at least the hope that next weekend sees more widespread drier weather than we have experienced for the past 4 weeks, and if high pressure does dominate we will be seeing some overnight frost and fog patches. As we look further out towards mid to late January there is still little sign of much if any cold or snow on the horizon.[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=201932:PPVG89 windy showers lsr Mon.png][attachment=201933:ecmt850.048 windy showery Mon.png][attachment=201934:PPVJ89 windy showery Tue.png][attachment=201935:PPVL89 m dry Wed less wind.png][attachment=201936:ecmt850.096 wave L perhaps wet Wed night.png][attachment=201947:PPVO89 wave L wet wed night south.png][attachment=201937:ukprec potential wet early Th.png][attachment=201940:PPVO89 becoming m dry bright Th.png][attachment=201948:ecmt850.120 drying Th.png][attachment=201949:h850t850eu drying Th pm.png][attachment=201950:ecmt850.168 m dry weekend frosts.png][attachment=201951:h850t850eu GFS more unsettled weather rain times.png][attachment=201953:prcpWarwickshire somewhat drier this week.png][attachment=201954:t850Warwickshire near normal temps all week.png][attachment=201956:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
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