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Weather guide Monday 9th to Sunday 15th December 2013

TonyH

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[b]Fairly dry and quite mild; turning unsettled and windier with some rain from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The rather dry winter weather continues, only 7mm in the past 17 days at Llanwnnen, only a couple of mm at Rugby, although we may be bringing back the rains to an extent by the end of the coming week. Temperatures were around the early December average for much of past week, extensive cloud cover prevented frost and fog generally, only Wednesday night seeing a widespread frost, Pembrey on the Carmarthenshire coast fell to -3c that night - this a frost prone spot due to sandy soils in spite of being adjacent the warming sea! Gale force winds affected the Midlands and parts of Wales on Thursday, gusts close to 60mph at Coleshill, this causing some damage with trees blown down, and even a fatality in Nottinghamshire. Prior to the passage of the cold front temperatures reached a mild 10 or 11c on Thursday although the potential cold snap that was strongly suggested in last week's guide did not materialise, as the very cold air got shunted quickly into Europe during Friday before it could get a hold over southern Britain, and so Friday also turned out mild in SW Wales, Milford Haven reaching 11.8c, although the Midlands was a little below average at around 7c. The general synoptic pattern this week is for high pressure to our SE over Europe and lows out west over the Atlantic, with a feed of south to SW winds bringing plenty of dry and mild weather although it may well turn more unsettled from Thursday, which is though a long way off as we saw last week![/size][/font]
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A very mild start to Sunday for West Wales, with coasts not having dropped below 9c overnight. Sunday then a generally dry and mild day with sunny intervals, just the odd drizzly shower possible in places, top temperatures afternoon of 10 to 12c - so the mildest day in the Lampeter area for several weeks. The best of the sun on Sunday over the Midlands. Mostly cloudy on Sunday night this preventing frost and temperatures remaining above 5c. MIld SW breezes again for Monday, variable cloud but with the sun breaking through at times, maxima 10 to 12c again. Some clear intervals perhaps Monday night with localised grass frost, but many places avoiding this with too much cloud cover prevalent, minima 2 to 5c. Another similar day for Tuesday, lots of dry and mild weather with sunny intervals, more of a Continental component to the flow could peg temperatures down lower for the Midlands where max may be 8c, but nearer 11c for SW Wales. A little drizzle possible for West Wales later on Tuesday, and it could be turning quite windy here too. Cloud could break more readliy over the Midlands on Tuesday night leading to a fairly widespread ground frost and lows close to zero, but West Wales should be too breezy and cloudy. Subtle differences in wind direction by mid week could alter the feel of the weather, as a drift more from the SSE would bring cooler low level Continental air, particularly for the Midlands, but if the breeze stays even slightly west of south then it remains quite mild. Assuming a SSE drift then, highs only 6 to 8c on Wednesday, but Pembrokeshire higher closer to 10c, and another dry day with some sunny intervals. Again local ground frost where cloud breaks permit for Wednesday night, West Wales most likely to escape.[/size][/font]
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Uncertainty as ever creeps in as the week progresses, but by Thursday the high over the near Continent may relinquish somewhat permitting weak troughs in from the Atlantic, and this could mean some patchy light rain later Thursday, more especially for West Wales, however it could be that we stay generally dry again with temperatures at least up to the mid December average of 8 or 9c.The barometer more definitely falling by Friday as Atlantic lows gain dominance over the Euro high. This means the trend from Friday and over the weekend is for increasingly unsettled weather with rain and perhaps strong winds at times. Rain at times then to end the week but probably no washout, and although it turns windy, a low chance of gales. Temperatures average to mild next weekend with frost unlikely.[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
[attachment=196979:PPVG89.png][attachment=196980:PPVJ89 mild m dry Tue.png][attachment=196981:ecmt850.072 Tu m dry mild.png][attachment=196982:PPVL89 dry cooler drift.png][attachment=196983:PPVO89 some rain Th esp WW.png][attachment=196984:ecmt850.096 Tr west late Th.png][attachment=196985:ecmt850.168 rain wind times weekend.png][attachment=196986:h850t850eu potential wet windy spell weekend.png][attachment=196987:prcpWarwickshire some rain from Fri.png][attachment=196988:prmslWarwickshire drop from Fri.png][attachment=196989:t850Warwickshire mildish week.png][attachment=196990:mgram_Birmingham fairly dry overall.png][/size][/font]

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