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Weather guide Monday 18th to Sunday 24th November 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Cold with frosty nights a feature; some rain or showers with hill snow; dry with fog next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A drier week gone - 26mm rain fell here and just 11mm at Coventry, but the extent of the showers during Thursday was not anticipated well in the last guide as although the East Midlands and parts of Pembrokeshire did miss these completely, parts of the Shropshire and Worcestershire caught half an inch or more from persistent showers. Temperatures mostly around or a little below the average last week (10 or 11c), with many places getting at least one air frost including on Tuesday night when it got down to -2.6c here and -3.6c at Benson in Oxfordshire. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]An slight taste of Winter this week as cold air arrives by Tuesday, although the risk of snow is negligible, we could see some quite hard frosts. Sunday has been a calm rather pleasant day with some sunshine in places such as Ceredigion and where it reached a fairly mild 12c. Several cold fronts brings rain to West Wales early on Monday morning moving into the Midlands afternoon, some quite heavy rain about for a time. The rain may linger well into the evening for the SE Midlands. Highs on Monday between 8 and 10c which will be the highest readings we see for at least a week! After a dry interval late afternoon, showers move into West Wales from off the Irish Sea during Monday night, some of these perhaps heavy with hail and marking the arrival of the much colder air, enough so for sleet or snow over the hills. Becoming clear and dry overnight for the Midlands and a widespread frost, many places getting down to around zero in spite of the keen NW breeze, coastal areas mostly escaping a frost however. On Tuesday we are in a cold NW blow between high pressure over the Atlantic and low over Scandinavia. With sea temperatures still up at 10c the cold air flow over Irish Sea is conducive to further shower development and so West Wales catching these, and it is cold enough for snow over high ground above about 1000 feet. Mostly dry with decent sunny spells for the Midlands. Very cold for mid November, highs of just 4 or 5c, but 7c is possible for Pembrokeshire, and a fresh NW wind. Another frost soon setting in after sunset, down to -3c in places by midnight. A low then slips down the North Sea through Wednesday, with the associated fronts bringing rain and mostly hill snow to all parts by morning, and so lifting the frost. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Rain at times through Wednesday morning with a fresh west to NW wind, but becoming more showery in the afternoon, again with wintry stuff for high ground. Cold again, highs on Wednesday generally 5 to 7c, but Pembrokeshire could touch 9c. Further showers in places overnight Wednesday and sleet or snow could temporarily come down to lower levels as temperatures drop to around zero, but this should not amount to anything away from high ground. A stiff northerly wind too overnight Wednesday making it feel bitter. Low pressure sinks away south into France during Thursday with pressure trying to build over northern Britain. The really cold air has mixed out by Thursday which is though still quite a chilly day with a NE breeze, there will be sunny intervals and a few rain showers. Highs between 5 and 8c. Clear intervals developing overnight Thursday with any showers tending to die out, still a bit of a breeze but a ground frost for many areas, temperatures down close to zero, with localised air frost and fog where winds drop sufficiently.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Strong indications of high pressure being over or very close to the UK by Friday and lasting right over next weekend. We are still in relatively cold air and the high will tend to trap this chilly air under an inversion layer at cloud level. Looking dry and fairly cold then from Friday, some sunshine, but with clearing skies frost and fog readily forming overnights and this could be slow to clear in places. Potentially quite sharp frosts of -5c are possible and with maxima in the 4 to 7c range, but colder where fog is persistent, this most likely to happen over the river valleys of the Midlands.[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=193810:ecmt850.048 cold air arrives Mon night.png][attachment=193811:PPVJ89 cold some showers Tu.png][attachment=193812:h850t850eu cold unsettled Wed.png][attachment=193814:PPVO89 cold m dry Th.png][attachment=193815:ecmt850.120 r cold showers dying Th.png][attachment=193816:h850t850eu dry r cold Fr.png][attachment=193817:ecmt850.168 weekend dry r cold frost and fog.png][attachment=193818:h850t850eu dry r cold weekend.png][attachment=193819:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]

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