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Weather guide Sunday 3rd to Saturday 9th November 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Very changeable with spells of rain and strong winds at times; localised flooding[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]As expected the storm that affected the south and SE of England early on Monday missed Wales and the Midlands, although we did get the rain! Church Lawford having 33mm in the 24 hours to 1800, with many other places getting over half an inch (12.5mm). Then further rain at times through the remainder of the past week but with drier interludes also. On Tuesday night many parts saw a grass frost , and here at Llanwnnen the first air frost of the Season occurred, getting down to -0.6c. October ended up very mild, cloudy and very wet. Coventry with 146.4mm rain had it's wettest October since 1903 (162mm) Other monthly rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 214.2mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Pembrey Sands: 177.2mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Capel Curig: 333.5mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Daventry: 121.7mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington: 142.2mm[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Another very unsettled and at times wet and windy week ahead with temperatures generally close to average (11c maxima). On top of the very wet October any additional bouts heavy rain will present the risk of localised flooding through the coming week. A vigorous low is crossing northern Britain through Saturday bringing strong to gale force winds. Winds increasing to give gale to severe gale force gusts through this afternoon and evening, 70mph gusts expected for coastal West Wales while 50mph gusts will occur inland which is likely to bring some trees down and cause minor structural damage. Further heavy showers for West Wales for Saturday night with hail in places, strong winds through the night easing by dawn. A brief respite between systems on Sunday, sunny intervals and just a few scattered showers, especially for West Wales. The next low then moves across SW England during Sunday evening, the rain from this pushing north into SW Wales by early evening. Always uncertainty with these south tracking lows as to how far north the rain will affect, but at this point heavy rain reaches as far as Ceredigion and Birmingham perhaps overnight Sunday but this may be subject change as the time approaches. Parts of the South Midlands may receive 20mm of rain from this system over Sunday night with localised flooding possible for counties such as Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire by Monday morning as the low clears SE England. At least we should miss the gale force winds associated with this low which stay to the south over northern France. The clearance occurs in the early hours with a grass frost in places. A bump of higher pressure for Monday which should be a mostly dry and bright if slightly cool day. Maxima on Monday 10c at best for most, although Pembrokeshire should manage 11c. Clearing skies for the Midlands on Monday evening may lead to a temporary touch of ground frost, but for West Wales the next band of rain arrives during the evening. This rain, some of which could be heavy, moves onto the Midlands after midnight, but clears through Wales around dawn. Early rain perhaps for the Midlands on Tuesday accompanied by strong SW winds. Bright and breezy for much of Tuesday, with blustery showers for West Wales, but most of the Midlands escaping these, highs on Tuesday 10 to 12c. Iffy for Bonfire night as some rain may be spreading into SW Wales through the evening, with the Midlands having a better chance of a dry one![/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Timings may increasingly go astray from mid week with such a mobile, changeable Atlantic weather pattern! Wednesday looks like starting dry for some, and for the Midlands the next bout of rain may hold off until late afternoon or evening? However, an active weather system comes through later on Wednesday bringing rain to West Wales afternoon, some heavy, and this could well affect the Midlands too by evening. A milder day but becoming quite windy highs of 12 or 13c. So, eventually mild, wet and windy for Wednesday. A warm sector with rain at times for during Wednesday night, also some strong gusty winds, but the cold front comes through by dawn and temperatures drop to 7 to 9c. Sunny intervals and showers for Thursday, most of these for West Wales and parts of the Midlands have a dry afternoon. Highs on Thursday close to the early November average at 10 or 11c but with a keen westerly breeze. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Friday looks promising for another respite from the wind and rain as a weak ridge crosses the UK, however this may well alter to something more damp. Any dry interlude does not last with the next Atlantic low moving in on Saturday, this could bring more heavy rain and gales next weekend.[/size][/font]

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