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Weather guide Monday 28th October to Sunday 3rd November 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain and strong winds at times (drier and brighter Tuesday and Wednesday); temperatures around average (12c)[/b][/size][/font]


[font=arial][size=3]Very mild but wet last week, unseasonably mild on Monday night when many places only dropped to 14 or 15c, which is above the average maxima for late October! Copious rain, especially on Monday when much of Wales saw between one and two inches, and even more for some areas such as the Valleys. Further very wet weather on Friday too, Llanwnnen and many other parts of Wales having an inch of rain, although it reached a very mild 18c in the Midlands. Llanwnnen has had 109mm (well over 4 inches) rain in the past week, while notoriously wet Capel Curig in Snowdonia has had about 140mm. In contrast Church Lawford in Warwickshire has had less than one inch (25mm) during this period. With 118.5mm to date Coventry has already had its wettest October since 1987 (124mm) with more rain to come still. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The main meteorological interest this week has been the impending 'storm of the century' as greatly hyped up in a certain newspaper that does this week in week out. A lively depression is indeed likely to affect us in the next 24 hours or so, but comparisons with the Great Storm of 1987 (Michael Fish 'It's not a Hurricane') are ridiculous! Following the 'storm' then a changeable week, rain at times but with dry interludes and temperatures around the average for the end of October/ start of November (12c maxima), and as is usual West Wales receiving most of the wet weather. Firstly though, sunny intervals and blustery showers on Sunday, perhaps not too many for the Midlands but some heavy ones over Wales with the chance of a clap of thunder. Fresh to strong SW winds gusting gale force in exposed places on Sunday and rather mild highs of 13 or 14c. The fun and games begin this evening as a rapidly developing system quickly approaches from the Atlantic to our WSW! Currently at midday Sunday this feature is a mere 995mbar and well to the SW of Ireland, by midnight it is around 985mbar and is entering the Bristol Channel, and by midday Monday it is whistling away into the North Sea and could be registering pressure as low as 970mbar. Even at this late stage there is uncertainty over the development of this depression, although all models take it across South Wales and the Midlands through tonight. The model discrepencies are with just how deep and intense this developing feature will become as it crosses the UK, and there has been a marked trend away from more extreme scenarios in the past 24 hours model production, the low is now not expected to be as deep or intense as was being modelled just yesterday afternoon (such predictive 'downgrades' often happen at the last minute with our weather!). Close to the centre of the low (Wales and the Midlands) there will be little more than a moderate to fresh breeze for much of tonight, indeed significantly calmer than this afternoon will be, with the gales affecting southern England only - severe on the south coast itself. The main feature tonight will be rain rather than wind, this heavy at times, and will have set in later on Sunday evening replacing the showers over West Wales, but even this should not last long enough to present much in the way of flooding issues, even though up to an inch could fall by morning. In the wake of the low on Monday morning, a strong to gale force WNW wind may well develop, although even this is being shown now as much less marked. All in all much of Wales and the Midlands will not be getting much of a storm, rather a typical Autumn blow with gales in places. It could be a different picture for the far south and SE of England however where a rather severe storm may still occur. For Monday then a bright, windy day with blustery showers again, heavy and perhaps thundery in places, but parts of the Midlands escaping these. Cooler air on Monday maxima 11 to 13c. Winds gusting to gale force (40mph) and perhaps severe gale force (50mph) in exposed places such as coastal headlands and hills - an unremarkable event it may well turn out! Proviso: the system may yet confound and devastate us! [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The rest of the week straightforward to predict in comparison with the coming 24 hours! A drier, brighter couple of days before it turns unsettled with rain at times from Thursday. Blustery showers keep going through Monday night for West Wales but mostly dry for the Midlands, lows of 6 to 9c. Low pressure eases away to Scandinavia on Tuesday, which still sees some scattered showers, but with better dry, sunny intervals between as a ridge comes across Ireland. Rather cool and breezy on Tuesday highs generally 10 or 11c, but 12c for Pembrokeshire where it will be brighter. The ridge is over England by Tuesday night which is dry for most with clear periods and cooler down to 3c in places, with a local grass frost. High pressure close to the SE through Wednesday which is a mostly dry bright day, particularly for the Midlands. West Wales may cloud over through the afternoon as a trough approaches Ireland with some light rain and drizzzle in places by evening. Highs on Wednesday close to the average of 12 or 13c. The SW wind also picking up as we go through Wednesday becoming quite strong over Wales later. There could be further light rain at times for West Wales on Wednesday night but mostly dry for the Midlands. The trough slows down on Thursday and could give a wet day for Wales but may hold off until late afternoon for the Midlands, but most of us gettting some wet weather on Thursday. Milder air tempered by the cloud and rain on Thursday so around or a little above average at 11 to 13c maxima.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Another transient ridge drying things up for Thursday night or Friday morning, but the weather turning decidely unsettled again as we head for the weekend.with a deep low NW of Scotand. Temperatures at least up to the average and mild at times with the SW flow. So a windy, fairly mild weekend in prospect seemingly, rain or showers at times and perhaps another shot at the 'storm of the century' come this time next week?![/size][/font]
[attachment=190333:xPPVA89.png.pagespeed.ic.KWEvrb2AUK nascent storm.png][attachment=190321:ecmt850.024 not so severe more south.png][attachment=190323:PPVE89 perhaps not this extreme.png][attachment=190325:PPVG89 windy showery Mon.png][attachment=190327:PPVJ89 some showers Tue.png][attachment=190328:ecmt850.072 m dry Wed.png][attachment=190329:PPVL89 m dry Wed.png][attachment=190330:ecmt850.096 rain Thu.png][attachment=190332:ukprec rain Thu.png][attachment=190331:ecmt850.144 unsettled Fri pm.png][attachment=190334:ecmt850.168 unsettled windy rain times weekend.png][attachment=190335:h850t850eu unsetteld windy rain times wend.png][attachment=190336:ecmt850.192 storm of the century mark 2 Sun.png][attachment=190337:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion quite wet week.png][attachment=190338:prmslWarwickshire changeable week.png][attachment=190339:t850Warwickshire cool then mild.png][attachment=190340:mgram_Birmingham.png]


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Rain affected West Wales Wednesday afternoon and some was heavy, and quickly cleared east instead of lingering for Thursday!

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