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Weather guide Monday 21st to Sunday 27th October 2013

TonyH

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[b]Headline: Mild to very mild; spells of rain, some heavy, windy at times[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]After a cool start last week was mild for the most part with rain at times, most places receiving between one and two inches of rain through the past 7 days. Monday was very cool over the Midlands with Coventry reaching just 10c, 4c below the mid October average, then by Saturday 18c was recorded widely across the Midlands and also parts of Wales. Some places caught a thundery downpour on Saturday too. Another unsettled but mild week ahead with further heavy rain and strong winds at times.[/size][/font]
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The early part of this week is controlled by a complex area of low pressure close to Ireland, so often wet and windy but mild. Sunday afternoon is showery, heavy and squally showers quickly passing through, the chance of a clap of thunder for some, although one or two spots missing them completely. Sunny intervals between and we are still in a very mild air mass, so temperatures up to 15 to 17c in spite of the fresh to strong SW wind. Wind and showers dying out this evening but with some still going for coastal Wales, but then wet weather arrives for SW Wales in the early hours reaching the Midlands by dawn. Another very mild night no lower than 10 or 11c. A spell of heavy rain for many through Monday morning accompanied by a strong SW to south wind, the rain turning lighter and patchier in the afternoon, although still some heavy bursts for West Wales. Mild highs around 15c. Further heavy rain at times during Monday night for Wales again, probably just light rain for the Midlands though. Very mild indeed on Monday night at no lower than 13c, more like it should be on a typical late October afternoon! More rain for all on Tuesday morning this clearing to sunny intervals and showers for the afternoon. Most of the showers affecting SW Wales where some will be heavy and thundery, but only a few for the Midlands on Tuesday afternoon, and with decent sunny breaks it will reach 17c here, while 15c a more typical figure for West Wales. The fresh to strong SW winds continue through Tuesday with gales for exposed coasts. Another double figure celsius night to follow with the wind still quite strong and showers keep going for western coasts.[/size][/font]
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By Wednesday the low has transferred to the north of Scotand, this should mean a somewhat drier day but still many places catching the scattered showers, with sunny intervals between these. A fresh westerly by Wednesday afternoon, and cooler and fresher for West Wales at 13 or 14c maxima, but still 16 or 17c for the Midlands as the mild air hangs on here. A cooler night to follow with clear spells down to 5c in places, but holding closer to 10c for most coasts, and a dry night in the main. The next Atlantic low slowly approaches Ireland as we go through Thursday, and so the relatively dry interlude does not last! It could be a dry morning though, and with the Midlands perhaps missing the worst of the rain on Thursday, while West Wales, closest to the trough, looks set for more heavy rain at times, especially on Thursday afternoon. A wet day for Snowdonia then on Thursday where temperatures only manage 12c or so, while for West Wales generally a respectable 14c, and a mild 16c for the East Midlands. Although the southerly breeze will freshen on Thursday, strong winds are not expected. Further rain or showers for Thursday night which is a mild one once more. Little let up on Friday either with a trough of low pressure sat right over England and Wales, so further showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps heavy in places, but mild maxima of between 14 and 16c, and a breezy rather than especially windy day seems probable.[/size][/font]
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A broad range of possibilities modelled for next weekend, the best that can be surmised is for a somewhat unsettled but drier couple of days compared with the previous week, so although there will be some further rain and perhaps also strong winds at times, reasonable drier interludes too, so not a washout weekend, and temperatures close to the average which is 12 or 13c at the end of October.[/size][/font]

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