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Weather guide Monday 7th to Sunday 13th October 2013

TonyH

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blog-0070128001381059323.png[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild and mostly dry to mid week, then much cooler but bright; perhaps some rain for the Midlands next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A mild, rather humid and cloudy week gone, quite wet for Wales, while parts of the Midlands saw precious little rainfall, in what is turning into a dry Autumn here. Wettest parts were Anglesey and the Lleyn Peninsular in NW Wales where almost 2 inches (50mm) fell during Thursday and Friday, whilst Rugby had only 3mm and Coleshill, Warwickshire just 5mm during the whole week. The most notable aspect of the past week was the warm nights, only down to 14 to 16c during Tuesday to Thursday nights, which would be warm in mid Summer! Plenty of dry weather for all in the coming week, mild at first but cool from mid week. Next weekend and the Midlands could be seeing some useful rain but this is not certain.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A ridge of high pressure gives a fine and dry Sunday, feeling pleasant in the sunny spells this afternoon, highs above average at 16 or 17c. Probably too much of a breeze for mist and fog tonight, quite mild, temperatures no lower than 9c. High pressure still over southern parts through Monday, but fronts will be bringing rain to the north. Very mild SW winds and so with decent sunny spells, more especially for the Midlands, a warm day for October, parts of the Midlands hitting 20c on Monday afternoon. Mild for West Wales, but with more in the way of cloud and just sunny intervals highs nearer 17c here. There could be some drizzle for West Wales by evening. A weakening front brings light rain and drizzle overnight for Wales but mostly dry for the Midlands. Very mild on Monday night, minima betwen 12 and 14c. Relatively high pressure still present during Tuesday but with a dying front embedded within this, so a cloudier day in prospect, even a spit of light rain or drizzle in places, but many areas getting a dry day. The cloud may well break in the afternoon to give sunny intervals, and this will warm it up for the Midlands and SW Wales where 18 or 19c is likely, while for Snowdonia a touch cooler and fresher at 15c. Clearing skies on Tuesday night so a cooler one, down to 7c in places. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Changes from Wednesday as low pressure over Scandinavia forces high pressure to the west of the UK, and some chilly north winds eventually reach Wales and the Midlands. A bright morning at least on Wednesday, temperatures responding well over the Midlands and South Wales to sunny spells and where it could touch 16c (60f) so a fairly mild day here, but a cold front is pushing down from the NW afternoon and it clouds over with light rain at times eventually through the afternoon, more epecially for the north of our regions. With the cloud and damp on Wednesday afternoon Snowdonia will be cool, no higher than 12c here, but more generally 14c for West Wales. By Wednesday night we will be in our coolest air so far this Autumn, quite a contrast to the very mild air of the start of the week! Temperatures up at 5000 feet in the clouds on Thursday below zero when they were above 10c on Monday. A much cooler feel to things for the end of the week then. Wednesday night clear spells, the chance of a light shower along West Wales coasts, but a fresh wind preventing any frost, lows around 5c inland. On Thursday we are squeezed between a high to the west and low to the east with a cool northerly airstream but at least dry and bright weather. Temperatures well down for all, only reaching 9 to 12c in spite of the sunny spells! Coolest for North Wales, mildest for Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire where it is more sheltered from the fresh north wind.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Again, probably too much of a breeze on Thursday night for frost, even though the air is cold enough, winds perhaps falling light enough for a ground frost in parts of inland West Wales though, minima 2c locally here and 5c for the breezier Midlands. By the end of the week high pressure should be close to Scotland but with a low over the near Continent to our SE, which may spoil the weekend for some! Friday looking largely dry again, sunny spells, especially for West Wales, while perhaps more cloudy pm for the Midlands, even the chance of a some rain by evening here. A NE breeze for Friday but we will have lost the really chilly air, so maxima of 13 to 15c, only a little below average for mid October, perhaps even feeling quite pleasant for Cardigan Bay. For the weekend, speculative, but West Wales more likely to hang onto some dry and pleasant October weather with temperatures around 15c, while the proximity of low pressure to SE England means that throughout the weekend the Midlands is threatened with some rain at times, possibly heavy in places, and hence cooler here if this happens.[/size][/font]

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