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AWT'S Autumn Forecast 2013

A Winter's Tale

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[b]SEPTEMBER...[/b]An above average month overall with some periods of warm weather (mainly in the first half) with some more autumnal and changeable spells inbetween and for longer periods at times in the latter half. Temperatures 0.0C to 1.25C above average. CET 14.1C. Rainfall 75-95% of the average (likelyhood of more rain in NW) with dry weather likely; seasonal rainfall bringing the total closer to average. Sunsine 0-10% above average.

[b]OCTOBER...[/b]A slightly above average month with some warm periods possible at stages of the first half but some more average, and at times chilly autumnal weather for spells throughout the month should keep the overall temperature closer to average. Rainfall should vary with alternating settled/unsettled spells - frequent frontal activity likely in the second half. CET 10.8C. Rainfall 85-100% of the average, seasonal rainfall but not too excessive nor persistent. Sunshine 0-5% above average.

[b]NOVEMBER...[/b]Changeable with temperatures close to average, generally unsettled throughout the month other than some quieter/settled days spells from time to time. A possibility for mild spells at times in the first half in and amongst the changeable but normal frontal activity.Potentially a chilly and quieter period during the latter part of November. CET 7.2C. Rainfall 90-105% - most of the rain in the NW but everywhere should see a fair amount of rain off the atlantic. Sunshine 0-5% above average.

SEPTEMBER - MORE DETAILED FORECAST

First week: A warm/hot start to the month - especially in the south - but becoming more unsettled from the north with more rainfall.
Second week: A continued influence with low pressure, temperatures close to average - sometimes warm in a few regions - and some spells of wet weather coming and going.
Third week: High pressure may start to build from the south to bring drier and maybe warmer weather to southern regions whilst changeable conditions remain further north. A return to unsettled weather later with a chilly and showery NWly.
Final week: Starting changeable with spells of wet weather, temperatures close to average/or occasionally chilly. Becoming quieter later with some warmth possible in the south.

OCTOBER

Second week: After a mild start it should turn considerably colder with fresh northerly winds bringing mostly dry but chilly conditions. Frosts likely in places for a few nights and the first chance of high ground snow in NE Scotland. Turning more settled - especially in the north - whilst the south remains vulnerable to precipitation.
Third week: Starting with high pressure close to northern areas whilst some wetter or potentially windier and mild conditions affect southern areas. Becoming unsettled across the British Isles with wet, windy and mild and fairly changeable weather.
Final week: Alternating periods of some quieter, settled spells with a chance of frosts in places and some unsettled spells bringing periods of rainfall and wind. A chance of the odd northerly toppler.

NOVEMBER

First week: Fairy typical early November conditions with fairly chilly temperatures for many away from the far south - some spells of sunshine aswell as showers and some frontal rainfall. Quite windy at times, frost overnight and snow at times on the high ground in Scotland.
Second week: Continuing unsettled, autumnal conditions with spells of rain in the form of both fronts and showers. Some sunny interludes aswell as frosts on some nights and some further hill snow in Scotland.
Third week: Turning a bit more settled from the south - always a greater risk of rain further NW but it should become quieter, drier but some fog patches and frosty nights.
Final week: Starting settled before unsettled weather arrives from the west. This should be followed by a cool showery NWly flow.


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