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Weather guide Monday 2nd to Sunday 8th September 2013

TonyH

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[b]Headline: Mostly dry; warm to mid week, then briefly cooler; warming, perhaps eventually thundery weekend[/b][/size][/font]
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Another mostly dry week gone just the odd spit of drizzle. Temperatures have been average to warm, highest readings of around 23c for West Wales on Monday, while Coventry and many other parts of the Midlands reached between 22 and 25c each day up to Friday. Inspite of being mostly dry and quite warm it was not though such a sunny week, with quite a lot of cloud at times, especially for West Wales. Cooler on Saturday with fresher air behind a cold front, the maximum of 16.7c here the lowest of the month, while Warwickshire managed 19c. August was a rather warm month with variable rainfall but generally near average totals and so not a bad finale to a rather dry, warm and quite sunny Summer 2013![/size][/font]
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August rainfall totals:[/size][/font]
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Llanwnnen 82mm = near normal[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
Llanelli: 95.2mm = near normal[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
Bablake, Coventry = 49.3mm = rather dry[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
Long Lawford, Rugby 34mm = dry[/size][/font]
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A chilly start to September/ Meteorological Autumn, down to 4c over parts of West Wales on Saturday night and 6c at Church Lawford in the Midlands, the lowest figures since June. A pleasant dry weekend gone if a little cool in places. The coming week sees a predominance of dry weather yet again and with temperatures rising into the 'very warm' category, reaching 25c for at least the Midlands by mid week, not half bad for September, but far behind September 1906 when it was in the mid 30's celsius over the Midlands, the most incredible September heat on record! Although not hot, this week will be more akin to Summer than Autumn.[/size][/font]
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Milder on Sunday night with the westerly breeze. High pressure close by to our SW on Monday, which is set to be a dry and warm day with plenty of sunshine. A fly in the ointment may be sea fog or low cloud drifting onto Cardigan Bay coasts at times as there will be a gentle moist NW drift, so if this occurs highs restricted to just 18c in places like Aberporth. Generally for inland West Wales though pleasantly warm with sunny spells and highs around 20c, while mostly sunny and 23c for the Midlands on Monday. Clearing skies and lows around 10c on Monday night. The high centred over southern England on Tuesday which should be sunny and warm for virtually all places! Maxima ranging from 19c for coastal West Wales, 22c for inland West Wales, and 25c for parts of the midlands. Light variable winds on Tuesday. The high edges away east on Wednesday but is close enough for another dry, reasonably sunny day for most. A very warm southerly drag of air for Wednesday, temperatures pushing 80f in reaching 26c locally over the Midlands! Warm for Wales too, 23c in places here with decent sunny spells.[/size][/font]
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Changes on Thursday as a trough moves in from the west, however this may not have much if any rain or showers on it. The front will though bring more cloud and a few showers to West Wales and considerably cooler temperatures as the air comes back from off the Atlantic. The Midlands may well see one more fine and warm day though as the trough tends to slow down over the west. Big contrast in temperature likely on Thursday from west to east, so West Wales no higher than 18c, while the East Midlands could manage 24c. The cool air should extend to the Midlands too overnight Thursday so clearing skies and lows of 6c in places. Friday somewhat uncertain as to whether the trough has cleared SE England or not? It is possible that the warmth hangs on over SE England with some thundery showers affecting there, and it is possible some of these will push into the Midlands later on Friday or overnight. For the west though on Friday, it looks more definite a case for being under a cool ridge of high pressure, so a fine, bright day likely here. Highs on Friday 16 to 18c, rather cool for early September.[/size][/font]
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Greater uncertainty still for next weekend, with a plume of hot air over the near Continent while the cool ridge of high pressure sits over northern UK. There is likely to be a heat low over Iberia and it is the position and orientation of this that dictates whether Wales and England gets some of this very warm air pumped around the low from off Europe? Best guess is a mainly dry and rather warm Saturday, perhaps turning increasingly warm and humid with the risk of thundery rain for Sunday - although equally it could stay fine and dry? Temperatures over northern France could well be up to 30c next weekend.[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
[attachment=183866:PPVG89 dry warm Mon.png][attachment=183867:ecmt850.048 warm dry Tues.png][attachment=183868:PPVK89 v warm dry Wed.png][attachment=183869:ecmt850.072 v warm Wed.png][attachment=183870:ecmt850.096 cool down west Thu.png][attachment=183872:ukmaxtemp temp contrast THu.png][attachment=183871:ecmt850.120 m dry r cool Fri.png][attachment=183873:h850t850eu H SCot m dry r warm weekend showers S.png][attachment=183874:ecmt850.168 v warm plume and thunder potential Sunday.png][attachment=183875:prmslWest~Midlands Tr Thu otherwise rel high.png][attachment=183876:prmslSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire H or L next wend.png][attachment=183877:mgram_Birmingham great difference from Fri.png][/size][/font]


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No Iberian high this weekend instead a UK cut off cold low, heat further east over Germany (31c) and warm too for Scandinavia. Contrast very cool over northern and western UK!

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