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Weather guide Bank Holiday Monday to Sunday 1st September 2013

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A mainly dry week gone, with just a couple of mm falling at Llanwnnen and Coventry, however parts of the Midlands did get wetter weather for a time on Friday and Saturday, although the Midlands narrowly missed out on the heavy rain that affected Eastern England throughout Saturday. Temperatures average to warm early last week, then on Thursday very warm for Wales, Llanwnnen reaching 25.7c with plenty of sunshine, while parts of the Midlands managed 25c on Friday - by which time West Wales had cooled down to average. Saturday was the coolest day of the month at Llanwnnen with a high of just 17.4c, while Capel Curig in Snowdonia only reached a decidedly Autumnal 15c. Very cool last night across Wales, the low at Bala just 2.6c and 3c at Sennybridge - a taste of Autumn![/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]With relatively low pressure over the UK on Sunday, the morning sunshine in the west may flatter to deceive, with cloud building up to produce a scattering of showers during the afternoon, especially well inland, although coasts could well remain sunny all afternoon! Conversely the cloud is breaking up over the Midlands with sunny spells developing along with a few sharp showers. Highs on Sunday a warm 20c for West Wales and 23c for brighter parts of the Midlands. Clearing skies tonight, lows generally 10 to 12c. A ridge of high pressure should kill off the showers for Bank Holiday Monday, which for 99% of us is a lovely warm and sunny day! Highs on Monday 22 to 25c widely with only gentle breezes. A clear and comfortably cool night follows the warmth, lows 7 to 10c for most places. The ridge holds over the UK on Tuesday although a weakening cold front is moving through it from the NW later in the day. Another fine and warm day for most, decent sunny spells, especially the Midlands and South Wales. It may though cloud over for Wales through Tuesday afternoon with heavy showers breaking out in places, chiefly over the hills. Maxima generally 21 to 24c with very little wind. Clear spells overnight temperatures no lower than 10c.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Mid week and high pressure still sits over Wales and England, so another largely dry and warm day on Wednesday, just the isolated light shower in places, sunny spells again and highs between 21 and 24c, a bit cooler for coastal West Wales as onshore breezes develop. The ridge holding sway across southern Britain during Thursday too, another fine and warm day with sunny spells, although sea fog and drizzle may affect some stretches of coast with a moistening SW drag of air by this stage, any fog most likely for Cardigan Bay. Maxima on Thursday generally 19 to 23c, but cooler where foggy along coasts. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The weather may be turning more unsettled by the end of the week but this by no means certain at this stage, as the various models are showing a sharp split in their interpretations of the atmosphere from Friday. One scenario is for a marked trough to cross the UK during late Friday or Saturday bringing a spell of rain, strong winds and much cooler conditions, while the alternative is for high pressure to maintain over or close us, keeping it mostly dry, bright and reasonably warm. Generally speaking though, very little rain is being modelled, even by the weekend, and so any fronts are suggested to pass through quickly, and with only a short spell of rain expected. The worst outcome would be that of latest ECM model run which would see a decidely Autumnal cool, windy and showery weekend, but this is a marked 'outlier' amongst the overall model suite, and a fine and dry, if perhaps cooling weekend is more likely an outcome. In any case, early September is promising further dry, settled, and warm weather.[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=183410:PPVG89 warm sunny BHM.png][attachment=183411:ecmt850.072 M dry warm Tues.png][attachment=183412:PPVJ89 Warm dry Tue perhaps clouding over WW later.png][attachment=183413:PPVL89 dry warm Wed.png][attachment=183414:ecmt850.096 warm dry mid week.png][attachment=183415:metslp.96 fine warm mid week too.png][attachment=183416:h850t850eu fine dry but cooling weekend.png][attachment=183417:ecmt850.168 cool windy showery weekend is outlier.png][attachment=183418:mgram_Birmingham m dry warm week, divergence FRi Sat.png][attachment=183419:prcpWarwickshire mainly dry week.png][attachment=183420:prmslAbertawe~-~Swansea H all week.png][/size][/font]
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Sea fog affected North Pembrokeshire and SW Ceredigion coasts on Monday afternoon pegging temperatures to just 16c at Aberporth, that must be the unfortunate 1%! Glad we went to a sunny Red Kite Centre instead of Llangrannog beach!

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