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Weather guide Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th July 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Warm to very warm but rather unsettled; some storms or rain at times, localised downpours[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Our very warm spell/ hot spell continued last week with plenty of sunshine. 31.4c (89f) at Porthmadog and 30c (86f) at Lampeter and Llanelli on Friday, in this - the hottest spell since July 2006 (when it reached a record 33.6c 92f at Llanwnnen!). For the Midlands highest readings of the week were in the order of 29c, with 30c not quite breached here. At least in rural areas the heat managed to escape overnight, each night dropped below a comfortable 13c in this location, prior to the weekend at least, whereas in the cities and for coastal Wales nights have been uncomfortably warm and sticky at times, for example often not getting below 15c in Birmingham, while on Friday night and again last night temperatures only fell to 19c at Mumbles near Swansea. The weekend however was cooler and cloudier for the Midlands and parts of Wales, maxima of only 21c for Warwickshire on Sunday, a bit disappointment or relief perhaps then after the scorching week. Perversely, the heat and sunshine has returned with a vengeance on Monday!.

Another bone dry week passed virtually everywhere, and the countryside is parched and turning brown, and river and streams are running very low. With the end in sight for the hot, dry spell, a resume for this location shows no rain for almost 3 weeks, while for the past fortnight daytime highs have averaged 26c (close to 80f), but with nights averaging a refreshingly cool 10c here in my garden. The remarkable spell ends with a scattering of downpours, thunderstorms and spectacular lightning displays for some of us this week, although certainly no washout, rather hit and miss showers, some places getting a lot of rain in a short space of time, while others escape with a relatively dry week. Very warm/ hot and humid at first, cooling mid week, but still warm, and perhaps very warm again late in the week.

Our resident high of the past two weeks or so is slipping away to Scandinavia, and for the coming week we are more influenced by a low pressure area that will be spinning about to the west of Ireland. At least with low pressure in this position the air will be coming up from the south or SW so not a cool direction, and a warm/ very warm but rather unsettled week ahead. Spells of hazy sunshine for Monday afternoon and quite hot and humid, maxima widely 26 to 28c, perhaps even 29c for one or two places. The lower pressure combined with the heat and humidity will serve to set off a scattering of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, these lasting well into this evening. Many places missing these, but torrential rain along with thunder and lightning where they do occur. A warm, sticky night follows tonight mostly remaining above 15c. Tuesday another very warm, humid day with fronts pushing into the heat from the SW setting off further downpours and storms in places, but again some places missing these altogether. The kind of weather where you may hear thunder or see distant flashes of lightning but not get much if any rain! Temperatures on Tuesday up to 23 to 27c, warmest for the Midlands, and perhaps a little cooler for coastal Wales. Further showers or storms in places well into Tuesday night, perhaps more especially over the Midlands, where you should see flashes of lightning at least.

Messy synoptics on Wednesday as thundery troughs take the real heat away to the NE, with more weather fronts moving into Ireland. Plenty of cloud to start and with bits and pieces of rain, warm sunny intervals developing for the afternoon, this again likely to set off a scattering of showers, thundery in places, although some will wonder what all the fuss is about and miss out on rain/ thunder altogether! Less warm for Wednesday but still managing 21 to 25c. Night times mid week mild and rather sticky, but not as oppressive as at the start of the week, dropping to 12 to 14c. Low pressure still just west of Ireland even to end the week, a picture of slow moving fronts slowly crossing the UK, although these are not expected to bring prolonged, heavy rain to Wales and the Midlands, rather Thursday and Friday more likely to see bits and pieces of rain or showers, with the by then, only outside chance of thunder. Quite warm on Thursday highs of 21 to 23c, while for Friday things may warm up again, maxima 23 to 26c look likely at this stage, and it would be feeling sticky.

Very difficult to pin detail on next weekend, the low pressure is still rotating west of Ireland, but dragging up some very warm pulses of air at times. No washout of a weekend seems certain; a stab would be fairly dry with scattered showers and thunderstorms for a few places; warm to very warm with sunny intervals, and maxima in the 22 to 27c range, highest for the Midlands, as West Wales experiences cooling SW breezes off the sea, so not a bad weekend again!
[attachment=178575:PPVG89 Tue v warm TL risk.png][attachment=178576:ecmt850.048 v warm TL risk Tue.png][attachment=178577:PPVJ89 Wed warm some rain or showers.png][attachment=178578:h850t850eu hit and miss showers warm wed.png][attachment=178579:PPVL89 r warm bits and pieces Thu.png][attachment=178581:PPVO89 sticky few showers.png][attachment=178580:ecmt850.072 thu fri warmish some rain or showers.png][attachment=178582:ecmt850.120 warmer few showers Fri.png][attachment=178583:h850t850eu warm poss showers weekend.png][attachment=178584:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=178585:mgram_Cardiff.png][attachment=178586:prcpAbertawe~-~Swansea hit nd miss rain.png][/size][/font]

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