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Weather guide Monday 8th to Sunday 14th July 2013 (Wales and Midlands)

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry, very warm and sunny!![/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Another largely dry week has passed, a mere 2mm falling at Rugby and Coventry, and just 5mm here, and we are at last entering a prolonged warm/ hot and sunny spell during 'High Summer', the first time since 2006! A few fly in the ointments as always (it's rarely the case that the whole UK is blessed with warm and sunny conditions at the same time!), as low cloud and mist affected parts of Wales on Saturday, at least during the morning, and with an onshore breeze crossing chilly waters(14c), places such as Aberporth and Aberdaron only managed a high of 16c, while the sunny Midlands was getting readings close to 80f (26c) With high pressure remaining over or close to the UK throughout the coming week and even next weekend it looks like a dry, very warm (hot sometimes even) and sunny week! Almost unbroken sunshine in places over the coming 7 days with temperatures well into the 20's, no doubt we will start to hear complaints that "it's too hot"! The coasts are the place to be this week. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]With a large slow moving high pressure over or close by the UK all week my job has been made a lot easier in producing this guide, that is similar weather for the whole week, and few if any of the difficulties of predicting when and where rain will occurr! The only real uncertainty will be "how warm will it get each day?" High pressure today is centred over Ireland, and as we can see/feel the heat is building on Sunday morning, even for West Wales, where incidentally it was a lovely cool night down to 5c in this spot. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Recent 11am temperatures:[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Our back garden, Llanwnnen: 23c[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Milford Haven, Pembs: 22c[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Rugby, Warwickshire: 24c[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Birmingham: 24c[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A sunny and very warm afternoon ahead for most, although again with the odd fly in the ointment. The first 80f readings for the Midlands of Summer to look forward to, maxima 27 or 28c here, while inland West Wales manages 25c. Coasts complicated by the fact that low cloud/ sea mist will affect some beaches from time to time, and where this happens highs kept below 20c, there will also be refereshing sea breezes along the Welsh coasts, although Carmarthenshire, Gower and south Pembrokeshire coasts should be warm and sunny with less chance of mist spoiling things, up to 23c locally - at Pembrey for example. A largely clear night to follow, a comfortable 10c for the countryside but a sticky 14c for cities and coastal SW Wales. An absolutely cracking sunny and very warm day on Monday, high pressure drifting across northern Britain, and with a gentle easterly flow, even coastal West Wales seeing the heat and virtually unbroken sunshine. Hotter than Sunday for West Wales we may touch 80f (27c), and 25 to 27c for the Midlands too. Clear skies on Monday night and it should be refreshingly cool for all, temperatures down to 8 to 12c. Rinse and repeat on Tuesday, high pressure meandering around western Britain, more virtually unbroken sunshine and warmth, highs generally 24 to 27c, and again refreshing sea breezes for coasts where 21c will be nearer the mark.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Wednesday to Friday sees little change as high pressure remains over or close to NW UK, more sunny and warm weather, the only debate being just how warm? GFS model is suggesting a breeze off the North Sea which would cool things down for the Midlands at least, low 20's maxima if so; ECM on the other hand positions the high such that things are still likely to be pushing 80f for the remainder of the week! Suffice to say, plenty of strong warm sunshine to see out the working week, highs somewhere in the 20's C (70's to perhaps low 80's F), it is not likely however, that the 30c (true heat) barrier will be breached in the coming week apart from in the London area. It may not feel it after the long sunny days, but nights cooling off nicely, we are not likely to be suffering warm, humid nights above 16c (60f), more likely getting down to 8 to 10c in rural areas and 12 to 14c for cities and coasts. A few places may catch an isolated shower on Wednesday or Thursday but the vast majority will miss these, so barely warrants a mention.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]And even into next weekend high pressure is close enough to keep things generally dry and warm, Saturday perhaps a hot one! We may be starting to see the weather breaking down with some rain or showers by Sunday, but this is as they say "a long way off" and the reality could be the warmth and sunshine decides to hold sway even into the week that follows?[/size][/font]
[attachment=176960:PPVE89 H Scot sunny very warm or hot.png][attachment=176962:h850t850eu sunny quite hot.png][attachment=176961:PPVJ89 H Ire v warm sunny.png][attachment=176964:ecmt850.072 v warm sunny mid week.png][attachment=176966:h850t850eu warm sunny perhaps less warm.png][attachment=176963:PPVO89 continues v warm sunny.png][attachment=176965:metslp.120 on and on Fri.png][attachment=176967:ecmt850.168 warm sunny next weekend.png][attachment=176968:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=176969:mgram_Cardiff.png][attachment=176970:prcpWarwickshire m dry week ahead.png][attachment=176971:t2mSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire warm week WW.png]
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