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Glastonbury Forecast 20 - 26th June

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J10

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Remember to keep in touch with the latest updates via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts. I will do forecasts though tomorrow, and Friday for the remaining days of the festival.

Today was dry as most models expected, with some sunny spells, more especially later in the day.

[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
A bright start is expected although in advance of a warm front from the west it is set to turn cloudy late morning or early afternoon. The warm front will initially give some moderate to heavy rain for Northern England and Scotland, during the afternoon and evening, it will push South Eastwards through including and Wales and through Glastonbury, and there are variations in the rainfall expected.

NAE suggests between 6-12mm.
[attachment=175957:13062806_2_2606.gif] [attachment=175958:13062806_2_2612.gif]

While NMM suggests between 4-8mm.
[attachment=175959:NMM Total Rainfall.JPG]
GFS
Max Temps hitting 17c early afternoon, and dropping back as the cloud and rain pushes through.

[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
The High Pressure is set to be centred to the South West of the UK with winds from a North Westerly direction, and for pressure to be closer to 1022mb, which contiunues the downward path.
Friday is expected to start rather damp and cloudy after any overnight rain clears away. While further fronts are set to push across the UK today, they are now expected to stay on a more northerly path, and miss Glastonbury. However it is still looking a rather cloudy day, and the odd spot of drizzle is possible, with the best of any brightness into the late afternoon/early evening.

Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 21-23c, Meto say 17-18c, the risk of any further ran into Saturday has now been lessened by the models.

[attachment=175948:UKM 26a 48.gif] [attachment=175952:ECM 26a 48.gif] [attachment=175929:GFS 26 06 2.JPG]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)

[attachment=175941:UKNM 26b 48.gif] [attachment=175962:ECM 26b 48.gif] [attachment=175928:GFS 26 12 2.JPG]
[b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
Again the High Pressure is set to be centred to the South West of the UK with winds from a North Westerly direction, pressure is set to be around 1025mb, although a degree in variation in this between the models, the air source is Tropical Maritime, so it is quite mild and rather damp, and this leads to quite warm and possibly muggy weather, but this often brings a good deal of cloud.
At this stage Saturday looks dry, although quite a lot of cloud is expected in the morning, more in the way of brightness and possibly sunny intervals, expected later in the day, Max temps 20-22c.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175946:UKM 26a 72.gif] [attachment=175951:ECM 26a 72.gif] [attachment=175924:GFS 26 06 3.JPG]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175939:UKM 26b 72.gif] [attachment=175961:ECM 26b 72.gif] [attachment=175927:GFS 26 12 3.JPG]

[b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
Still some uncertainty but the High Pressure is set to build closer to the UK so although the pressure is not much higher, still around 1023-1025mb, the centre of it bring that bit further north means fronts are likely to take more a northerly route and as such Sunday at this stage, looks mostly dry and settled. So after a rather cloudy start to the day, more in the way of afternoon and evening sunshine or at least brighter spells. So some sunny intervals/spells are possible into the afternoon, with Temps around 20-23c.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175945:UKM 26a 96.gif] [attachment=175950:ECM 26a 96.gif] [attachment=175925:GFS 26 06 4.JPG]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175940:UKM 26b 96.gif] [attachment=175960:ECM 26b 96.gif] [attachment=175926:GFS 26 12 4.JPG]

[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall chart 00Hz and 12Hz around 4-6mm over the course of the festival, the vast majority of this on Thursday. The ensembles largely in line with the op run.

[attachment=175944:Rmgfs96sum 26 0.gif] [attachment=175943:Rmgfs96sum 26 2.gif] [attachment=175930:GEFS 26a 4.png] [attachment=175964:GEFS 26b 3.png]

The ensembles go for the pressure to start at 1030mb, drop off quickly Thursday and Friday, before increasing the pressure into the weekend.

[attachment=175931:GEFS 26a 3.png][attachment=175963:GEFS 26b 4.png]
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 (7/10) Thursday now shows some moderate rain, however apart from this mostly dry.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6.5/10 (7/10) Apart from some brief dampness early Friday, things should dry up quickly over the weekend.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (7/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.

[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Some rain Thursday, otherwise Dry and warm with decent sunny spells over the weekend, especially later in the days
Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
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