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Glastonbury Forecast 19 - 25th June

J10

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I know some of you will be off to the festival for the next day or so, so have a good one and remember to keep in touch via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts. For obvious reasons this will be the last full forecast for Glastonbury, I will do forecasts though tomorrow, Thursday and Friday for the remaining days of the festivals, while the pattern for the festival is set, detail is still elusive.

[b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
High Pressure has ridged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1032mb, A sunny start is expcted for Glastonbury tomorrow, however more cloud is expected to bubble up for the afternoon, although some sunny intervals remain likely. The odd shower is still just about possible late into the afternoon according to GFS. Max temps are expected to be in the range 19-21c, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.

Chart is GFS 12Hz, given the lack of variation in the inter runs charts, this is indicative.
[attachment=175842:GFS 25 12 1.JPG]

The NMM chart shows the expected rainfall, very little and this is probably worst case scenario, every chance it will stay day tomorrow.
[attachment=175843:NMM 24hr.JPG]

[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
In terms of synoptic patterns, not much has changed in recent days. High Pressure continues to edge eastwards containing an embedded warm weather front, with winds West to NW over Glastonbury, pressure again expected to be around 1028-1030mb.

The issue has always been how far north the rain would get. On today's runs, the rain is initially forecast for Northern England and Scotland, however now the rain is forecast to push South-eastwards across England and Wales as opposed to original forecasts which suggested it pushed east and missing southern areas. As such a little rain is possible for Thursday evening and overnight into Friday. The best of any sunshine is likely for the morning with more cloud expected into the afternoon and into the evening. Temps are expected to be around 19-21c.

[i]Morning Runs [/i](L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175827:UKM 25a 48.gif] [attachment=175832:ECM 25a 48.gif] [attachment=175835:GFS 25 06 2.JPG]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175847:UKM 25b 48.gif] [attachment=175857:ECM 25b 48.gif] [attachment=175841:GFS 25 12 2.JPG]

[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
There is a further change to the modelling today, with the centre of the High to be further out west, and for pressure to be closer to 1025mb, this increases the risk of fronts to push through Southern areas, rather than stay further north. Friday is expected to start rather damp and cloudy after the patchy overnight rain clears away to the east. It is then expected to turn a bit drier and bright as the days progresses although sunshine amounts are now expected to be limited. Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 21-23c, Meto say 17-18c, but even Meto have a big temp range for Friday. Another issue this evening is uncertainty about another front Friday night, which may give a little rain into Saturday, the risk is this happening remains low at the moment and rainfall amounts are not expected to be massive, but I will keep an eye on it for tomorrow.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175826:UKM 25a 72.gif] [attachment=175836:GFS 25 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175831:ECM 25a 72.gif]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175846:UKM 25b 72.gif] [attachment=175856:ECM 25b 73.gif][attachment=175840:GFS 25 12 3.JPG]

[b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
There is a little bit more certainly about the pattern for Saturday, pressure is set to be around 1025mb, with a West to North West flow, pressure is a bit lower than suggested a few days ago, with the centre of the High Pressure a bit further out west. At this stage Saturday looks dry, although quite a lot of cloud is expected in the morning, more in the way of brightness and eventually sunny intervals, expected later in the day, Max temps 18-21c.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175825:UKM 25a 96.gif] [attachment=175830:ECM 25a 96.gif] [attachment=175837:GFS 25 06 4.JPG]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175845:UKM 25b 96.gif][attachment=175855:ECM 25b 96.gif] [attachment=175839:GFS 25 12 4.JPG]

[b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
Still some uncertainty but the High Pressure is set to build closer to the UK so although the pressure is not much higher, still around 1025mb, the centre of it bring that bit further north means fronts are likely to take more a northerly route and as such Sunday at this stage, looks mostly dry and settled. So some sunny intervals/spells are possible into the afternoon, with Temps around 19-23c.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175824:UKM 25a 120.gif] [attachment=175829:ECM 25a 120.gif] [attachment=175838:GFS 25 06 5.JPG] [attachment=175852:GEFS 25a 2.png]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175844:UKM 25b 120.gif][attachment=175854:ECM 25b 120.gif] [attachment=175849:GFS 25 12 5.JPG] [attachment=175867:GEFS 25b 2.png]

[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall chart 06Hz suggest a little bit more rain than previous days at around 6-9mm, most of this is expected Thursday and Friday, the 12hz run was not available tonight.

[attachment=175853:Rmgfs120sum 25 1.gif] [attachment=175850:GEFS 25a 4.png] [attachment=175866:GEFS 25b 3.png]

The ensembles go for the pressure to start at 1030mb, drop off quickly Thursday and Friday, before increasing the pressure into the weekend.
[attachment=175851:GEFS 25a 3.png][attachment=175865:GEFS 25b 4.png]

[b]Summary[/b]
From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building to around 1030mb. GFS thoughts of dropping the pressure before next weekend seems to have been followed.
Still mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 10mm, with Thursday and Friday, looking a little bit damper than suggested in recent days.
The festival looks like starting on a sunny note, turning a bit cloudier on Thursday afternoon, thereafter, the best of any brighter/sunny spells into the afternoon.
Temps looking good as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.

[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 (7.5/10) Some rain Thursday and possibly Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking quite small including over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7/10 (8/10) Currently the ground looks dry, and it should stand up to the small rainfall amounts expected during the festival.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (7/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.

[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
To sum up in 4 words, Mostly Dry and Warm.
It is Looking mostly Dry and settled, although a little rain Thursday / Friday, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected especially towards the end of most days, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.

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