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Glastonbury Forecast 18 - 24th June

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J10

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Some of you have been very kind to send some site photos and conditions are looking good, and if the models are correct for the next 6 days, there should be no reason for this to change.

I know some of you will be off to the festival for the next few days, so have a good one and remember to keep in touch via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts.

Enough padding by me and on for with the forecast, which will again do the forecast for each day of the forecast.

[b]Overview[/b]
Tuesday is looking settled and dry, with some decent sunny spells.

[b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
High Pressure has ridged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1030-1032mb, The odd shower is still just about possible late into the afternoon according to GFS, however most of the day is set to be sunny or at least bright with sunny intervals. Max temps are expected to be in the range 18-20c, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.

[i]Morning Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175730:UKM 24a 48.gif] [attachment=175735:ECM 24a 48.gif] [attachment=175745:GFS 24 06 1.JPG]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175740:UKM 24b 48.gif] [attachment=175761:ECM 24b 48.gif] [attachment=175750:GFS 24 12 1.png]

[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
High Pressure continues to edge eastwards, with winds West to NW over Glastonbury, pressure again expected to be around 1028-1030mb. A weather front if still forecast to be embedded with the High Pressure. At this stage the continuing expectation if for the heaviest of the rain to hit Northern parts of England and Scotland with Glastonbury likely to see some patchy rain at worst possible into the afternoon, although this may change a little. The best of any sunshine is likely for the morning with more cloud expected into the afternoon and into the evening. Temps are expected to be around 19-20c.

[i]Morning Runs [/i](L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175729:UKM 24a 72.gif] [attachment=175734:ECM 24a 72.gif] [attachment=175744:GFS 24 06 2.JPG]

[i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175739:UKM 24b 72.gif] [attachment=175760:ECM 24b 72.gif] [attachment=175749:GFS 24 12 2.JPG]

[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for High Pressure to be slightly further out west with winds West to North West, and for the pattern to be slightly flatter than on Thursday, with pressure around 1025-1030mb. Friday is now expected to be dry according to the models, but with quite a bit of uncertainty about the cloud amounts at this moment quite a lot of cloud is expected, especially to start the day. Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 22-24c, Meto say 18-19c, but even Meto have a big temp range for Friday.

Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175728:UKM 24a 96.gif] [attachment=175733:ECM 24a 96.gif] [attachment=175743:GFS 24 06 3.JPG]
Afternoon Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175738:UKM 24b 96.gif] [attachment=175759:ECM 24b 96.gif] [attachment=175748:GFS 24 12 3.JPG]

[b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
The general pattern of High Pressure to our South West is agreed, beyond this not much is certain, Pressure for the Glastonbury area between models ranges from 1023-1028mb, and some have the centre of the High quite close to the UK, others halfway to the Azores. It does seem likely to be dry, with fronts probably too far north to effect Glastonbury, and temps are likely to be low to mid 20s. Some sunny spells seem likely but some uncertainty at this stage.

Morning Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175727:UKM 24a 120.gif] [attachment=175732:ECM 24a 120.gif] [attachment=175742:GFS 24 06 4.JPG]

Afternoon Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175737:UKM 24b 120.gif] [attachment=175758:ECM 24b 120.gif] [attachment=175747:GFS 24 12 4.JPG]
[b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
There seems even less agreement on Sunday's weather, the general theme of High Pressure being nearby is agreed, beyond that no real agreement, with pressure forecast between 1022-1032mb and that is not even including the ensembles. Winds are likely to be from a West to South West direction and with 850Hpa temps around 10c, it not likely to be cold. So in summary looking dry, warm with temps low-mid 20s, and the chance of some sunshine.

Morning Runs for Sunday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
[attachment=175726:UKM 24a 144.gif] [attachment=175731:ECM 24a 144.gif] [attachment=175741:GFS 24 06 5.JPG] [attachment=175767:GEFS 24a 2.png]
Afternoon Runs for Sunday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
[attachment=175736:UKM 24b 144.gif] [attachment=175757:ECM 24b 144.gif] [attachment=175746:GFS 24 12 5.png] [attachment=175772:GEFS 24b 2.png]

[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall charts are very consistent with the lack of rainfall, both runs go for around 3mm of rainfall in the next 6 days. Equally the ensembles also support a very dry festival.
[attachment=175769:Rmgfs144sum 24 1.gif] [attachment=175776:Rmgfs144sum 24 2.gif] [attachment=175766:GEFS 24a 4.png] [attachment=175775:GEFS 24b 3.png]

The ensembles continue to go a pressure rise, and not dropping the pressure so much into next weekend either.
[attachment=175765:GEFS 24a 3.png] [attachment=175774:GEFS 24b 4.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building steadily next week to around 1030mb. Thereafter ECM the keenest of keeping High Pressure closest to us, GFS in the middle with UKMO less keen on doing so.
Mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 5-6mm, not entirely sunny, with quite a lot of cloud on Thursday especially and to an extent Friday but bright at least on most other days. Temps looking good as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.

[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking small including over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 8/10 (7.5/10) Currently the ground looks dry, and there is no forecast reason for this to change throughout the festival period .
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (7/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.

[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]

To sum up in 3 words, Dry and Warm.
It is Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
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Thanks for all your efforts once again Jackone, I can't believe we've got what amounts to a perfect forecast for Glasto! Dry, not too hot, bit of cloud to protect us from the sun and stop temps dropping too much at night, it's looking to be a cracker! 

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