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Glastonbury Forecast 16 - 22nd June

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Time for the latest update,

Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here


[b]General Theme[/b]
A little bit more rain or showery outbreaks are possible tomorrow, however as expected high Pressure will steadily edge in across the UK over the start of next week. The start of next week looks mostly dry and settled, there may be some embedded weather fronts pushing in from the west on Tuesday, but this is likely to give some nuisance value cloud at worst. Otherwise Monday to Wednesday is looking dry and settled, bright or sunny.

[b]GFS Operational Runs[/b]

Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), and with a slight NW ridge. The ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday (1030-1032mb), with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, both runs keep low pressure centred to the west of Iceland. For Thursday and Friday the 06Hz run keeps the High Pressure strong over the south, with the 12Hz flattening it quicker from the north. Over the weekend the 06Hz run finally collapses allowing a front to the North West a bit closer conversely the 12Hz run rebuilds the High Pressure from the south keeping fronts further north.

In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Wednesday with only the odd shower, if anything Tuesday looks the most likely day for the odd shower. For Thursday and Friday, there is the risk of fronts trying to edge in on the westerly wind, the 06Hz run has the front initially further north and moves it through South eastwards, so perhaps a little light rain Thursday evening, while a few showers are possible Friday. The 12Hz run has the rain band a bit further south, but moves it eastwards, so Glastonbury looking dry on both Thursday and Friday.

At this stage, looking mostly dry over the weekend, the 06Hz run keeps the low pressure further North and East than recent runs, but maybe the chance of some rain over Sunday evening. the 12Hz run builds High Pressure from the south so looking bone dry.

In Summary the 12Hz run looks very promising with very little rainfall, the 06Hz shows a little bit of rain for the late Thursday and perhaps a few showers on Friday, with maybe a little rain on Sunday, but rainfall totals looking very small at the moment.

Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175523] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175522] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175521] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175520]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175519] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175518] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175517] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175524]

[b]Rainfall Next 6 days[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175526] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175525]
The 06Hz run has around 8-10mm of rain forecast, while the 12Hz run has 5-7mm of rain forecast. nothing substantial really.

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both ensembles continue with theme of pressure rising steadily next week to around 1030mb, with a slow decline in pressure around Thursday onwards to around 1020mb.The 12Hz op run keeps pressure a bit higher than the ensembles mean towards next weekend.

The 06Hz maintains the theme of a mostly dry festival, a few spikes of precipitation, but nothing massive expected. The 12Hz is almost entirely dry after this weekend, and there are also less spikes in the ensembles,

06Hz run
[attachment=175532:GEFS 22a 1.png] [attachment=175531:GEFS 22a 2.png] [attachment=175530:GEFS 22a 3.png] [attachment=175529:GEFS 22a 4.png]

12Hz run
[attachment=175546:GEFS 22b 1.png] [attachment=175545:GEFS 22b 2.png] [attachment=175544:GEFS 22b 3.png] [attachment=175543:GEFS 22b 4.png]

Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), no real change from yesterday. Both charts have the ridge extending North Eastwards by Wednesday, and both continue to have this further north than GFSs runs. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North, the 12Hz has the High Pressure a bit further south. For the weekend there is a NW flow with Low Pressure centred off NE Scotland.

For the weekend both runs have moved away from low pressure effecting southern parts of the UK, notably the 12Hz run looks like rebuilding heights to the South West for the Sunday.

Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175533:ECM 22a 48.gif] [attachment=175536:ECM 22a 96.gif] [attachment=175535:ECM 22a 144.gif] [attachment=175534:ECM 22a 192.gif]

Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175539:ECM 22b 48.gif] [attachment=175537:ECM 22b 96.gif] [attachment=175538:ECM 22b 144.gif] [attachment=175547:ECM 22b 192.gif]

[b]Summary [/b]
A few showers are possible tomorrow, after that looking mostly dry next week until Thursday. There is a slightly increased chance of some overnight rain into Friday, but not really amounting to much. Conversely, the chance of some rain next weekend has been reduced. A good deal of bright weather can be expected, pinpointing sunshine is always difficult at this stage Wednesday looks a good bet, while other days may see more of a mix of sun and cloud, but decent amounts of sunshine are likely each day, perhaps even into the weekend.

From tomorrow I will try to give forecasts for each day of the festival.

[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but a reducing chance over the festival weekend, at this stage total rainfall over the festival is looking very small
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7.5/10 (6.5/10) With the ground conditions looking good, and very little significant rain forecast, mud levels are likely to be low.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 6.5/10 (6/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s perhaps even into the weekend.

[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
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