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Glastonbury Forecast 13 - 19th June

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J10

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Time for the latest update,

Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here

[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670[/url]

A slight change in the forecast today, in that the pattern for this week and for the weekend is now agreed between the models, so I'll do the summary here to save late duplication.

Remaining unsettled this week, with some rain expected on Thursday, however the amount of rain now expected now a lot less than previously forecast. Low Pressure now on its established southern track pushing westwards across the UK during early hours of Saturday morning with showers to follow for the rest of the weekend. Better agreement now on the pressure build up into next week, which should start to edge across early on Monday, which is a little bit slower than some forecasts were suggesting yesterday.

The model analysis whihc follows will concentrate on Festival Week/ weekend itself.

[b]GFS Operational Charts[/b]

[based on 06Hz 19th June run]
The 06Hz shows pressure build up quite quickly and a decent way North on Monday, meaning a mostly dry day on Monday. A ridge of High Pressure edges further east on Tuesday and Wednesday, and only the odd light shower is possible. Low Pressure looks sets to break through the block on Friday giving quite a wet weekend, although this does look a bit of a outlier compared to the ensembles.
Charts shown in order (72 Sat 22 June, 144 Tue 25 June, 192 Wed 27 June, 240 Fri 29 June)

[attachment=175096:GFS 19 06 1.JPG] [attachment=175094:GFS 19 06 2.JPG] [attachment=175092:GFS 19 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175090:GFS 19 06 4.JPG]

[based on 12Hz 19th June run]
The 12Hz shows pressure build up quite quickly next week, and although not as far north as the 06Hz, it should still stay day on Monday. Pressure continues to build up on Tuesday and Wednesday, although GFS indicates a few showers, but this shouldn't really amount to much. For the remainder of the festival, fronts push west to east on the top of the High Pressure, but South Western areas should escape the worst of any rainfall.

Charts shown in order (72 Sat 22 June, 144 Tue 25 June, 192 Wed 27 June, 240 Fri 29 June)
[attachment=175097:GFS 19 12 1.JPG] [attachment=175095:GFS 19 12 2.JPG] [attachment=175093:GFS 19 12 3.JPG] [attachment=175091:GFS 19 12 4.JPG]

The 12Hz run shows around 9-12mm of rain for the next 6 days, this is driest forecast of this type in recent days.

[attachment=175098:Rmgfs144sum 19 1.gif]

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

Both reflect the reduced rainfall expected tomorrow, and show a very quick rise in pressure for next week, and although pressure does drop a bit over teh weekend , pressure gernally rmain quite high, and rainfall is is forecast to be quite low over the run.

[based on 06Hz 19th June run]
The op run was bit of an outlier in terms of pressure and rainfall over the weekend.
[attachment=175100:GEFS 19a 1.png] [attachment=175099:GEFS 19a 2.png] [attachment=175102:GEFS 19a 3.png] [attachment=175101:GEFS 19a 4.png]

[based on 12Hz 19th June run]
The op run was a bit drier for tomorrow compared to most of the ensembles, otherwise it was mainly close to the ensemble mean.
[attachment=175123:GEFS 19b 1.png] [attachment=175122:GEFS 19b 2.png] [attachment=175121:GEFS 19b 3.png] [attachment=175120:GEFS 19b 4.png]

[b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 19th June]
[attachment=175130:610day.03 19.gif] [attachment=175129:814day.03 19.gif]

Shows High Pressure to the west of the UK in a similar fashion to the op run.

[b]ECM[/b]

[based on 00Hz 19th June run]
The op 00Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure over western UK by Tuesday which should keep things mostly dry for SW areas. This builds steadily by Thursday, however it is forecast to flatten on Friday with the risk of some fronts from the North west over the weekend.

[attachment=175114:ECM 19a 72.gif] [attachment=175113:ECM 19a 120.gif] [attachment=175112:ECM 19a 168.gif] [attachment=175117:ECM 19a 240.gif]

[based on 12Hz 19th June run]

[attachment=175110:ECM 19b 72.gif] [attachment=175109:ECM 19b 120.gif] [attachment=175108:ECM 19b 168.gif] [attachment=175119:ECM 19b 240.gif]

The op 12Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure over western UK by Tuesday and Wednesday which should keep things mostly dry for SW areas. The High Pressure is forecast to flatten by Thursday with an increased risk of some fronts from the North west, with an ominous looking charts on Friday, with low pressure on top of the UK on Saturday.
[b]Summary [/b]
The risk of rain for Thursday now looks a lot less than some previous forecasts, the other meaningful rainfall expected over the weekend. For Glastonbury festival week itself, signs of a steady pressure rise and the start of the festival looking mostly dry and settled. Some op runs are going for more of unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down.

Many runs had forecast pre festival rainfall in excess of 25mm, others over 50mm, however with current estimates of closer to 10mm, and this should not cause that much of a problem, especially given that recent on site reports have suggested that current conditions are far drier on site than at the same time in recent years. Also recent investments on site has continued to improve the drainage there. The updated Mudbath /Dustbowl rating and subsequent ones will reflect all these factors.

[b]Ratings :- [/b]

Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 5/10 Some rainfall can be expected before the festival, but probably not of the quantity needed to saturate the site
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 4.5/10 temps probably around or just below average, but pleasant enough in any sunshine

[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, but there may still be a little mud around, so wellies may also be needed.
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