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Glastonbury Forecast 11 - 17th June

J10

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Time for the latest update,

Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here

[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670[/url]

Starting off with the [b]GFS Operational Charts [/b]
Trying to find a consensus between runs, this week has fairly low pressure, with the risk of Some thunderstorms form the east. For the weekend, Low Pressure is likely to effect most parts of the UK.

[based on 06Hz 17th June run]

The op 06Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, and pressure builds steadily from the West/South West, so that by early Wednesday, pressure is over 1028mb across the whole UK. It remains mostly setted for Glastonbury but signs of things turning a little but more unsettled from the south over the weekend.

Charts shown in order (120 Sat 22 June, 192 Tue 25 June, 240 Wed 27 June, 288 Fri 29 June)
[attachment=174710:GFS 17 06 01.JPG] [attachment=174709:GFS 17 06 2.JPG] [attachment=174708:GFS 17 06 3.JPG] [attachment=174707:GFS 17 06 4.JPG]

The rainfall total charts suggests between 27-37mm of rain over the next 6 days.
[attachment=174706:Rmgfs144sum 17 1.gif]

[based on 12Hz 17th June run]

The op 12Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, and pressure builds slowly from the West/South West, with a ridge of High Pressure for more especially for South Western areas by Wednesday. However by Friday a fairly weak area of low pressure pushes across the UK, only clearing late Sunday.

Charts shown in order (120 Sat 22 June, 192 Tue 25 June, 240 Wed 27 June, 288 Fri 29 June)
[attachment=174705:GFS 17 12 1.JPG] [attachment=174704:GFS 17 12 2.JPG] [attachment=174703:GFS 17 12 3.JPG] [attachment=174702:GFS 17 12 4.JPG]

The rainfall total charts suggests between 16-24mm of rain over the next 6 days.
[attachment=174711:Rmgfs144sum 17 2.gif]

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

The Pressure is not now expected to rise significantly this week, indicating the pressure remaining rather unsettled, this is confirmed by the precipitation, bot ensembles run go for moderate amounts of precipitation, with the 12Hz run making the 20-21st June very wet for Somerset, and the 06Hz run having more precipitation over the weekend. Both then show drier conditions into next week, with steady pressure rises.

[based on 06Hz 17th June run]

[attachment=174721:GEFS 17a 1.png] [attachment=174720:GEFS 17 a 2.png] [attachment=174719:GEFS 17a 3.png] [attachment=174718:GEFS 17a 4.png]
[based on 12Hz 17th June run]

[attachment=174715:GEFS 17b 1.png] [attachment=174714:GEFS 17b 2.png] [attachment=174717:GEFS 17b 3.png] [attachment=174716:GEFS 17b 4.png]

[b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 17th June]
[attachment=174735:610day.03 17.gif]
[attachment=174734:814day.03 17.gif]
Finally signs that the trough is moving off the UK, maybe signs of the end of Glastonbury looking a bit better,
[b]ECM[/b]

Trying to find a consensus between runs, this week has fairly low pressure, with the risk of Some thunderstorms from the east, however it appears ECM to have this as a lower risk than GFS, especially the 12Hz run . For the weekend, Low Pressure is likely to effect most parts of the UK.

[based on 00Hz 15th June run]
The op 00Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure developing to the west of the UK, briefly pressure rises to the South west, but for the festival, there are westerly winds , with low pressures edging in form the west, at this stage seemingly more likely to impact on Northern areas of the UK.

[attachment=174729:ECM 17a 120.gif] [attachment=174728:ECM 17a 168.gif] [attachment=174727:ECM 17a 240.gif]

based on 12Hz 15th June run]

The op 12Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, bur already with High Pressure in South Western parts of the UK, Pressure a bit further north than the 00Hz, looking far more settled for the festival, with Low Pressure systems only fringing northern parts of the UK.

[attachment=174725:ECM 17b 120.gif] [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=blogentry&attach_id=174478"][attachment=174724:ECM 17b 168.gif] [/url][attachment=174723:ECM 17b 240.gif]

[b]Summary [/b]
This week now looking generally unsettled with the risk of some rain at times, and due to the convective nature of the rain, rainfall is impossible to pinpoint. This weekend will see further rain as low pressure sweeps East/South Eastwards across the UK. For Glastonbury festival week itself, signs of pressure building from the south west, but disagreement between models as to this extent. ECM is more promising in this regard, and next week is looking drier than this week.
I have kept on about rain before the festival, but this weeks rain could make ground conditions saturated, and hence massively increase the risk of a mud bath.

[b]Starting the ratings :- [/b]

Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 More promising Signs of things settling down next week.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 3/10 It seems very likely that there will be moderate rainfall between now and the festival commencing, an inch of rain seems likely, however there is the risk of far more than that this week, and as the chances of a dust bowl festival now seem slim, the rating must reflect that.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 4.5/10 winds from a general western direction, 850HPa temps look around average.

[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]

Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself still possibly drier than average, but pre festival rain makes some mud on site a probability, with an increased risk at the moment of mudbath conditions.

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