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Glastonbury Forecast 10 - 16th June (mini)

J10

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A bit of a cheat today, I have copied this directly from my forecast on the main forum.

[b]GFS Operational Run[/b]

Both make more of the risk of Low Pressure from the east this week. especially the 12Hz run.The 06hz has total rainfall over the next 6 days of 6mm, while the 12Hz run has closer to 50mm, clearly that has big implications of the ground conditions.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:174595] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174594]
My guess is the the 50mm is overstating things somewhat as no other run has come close to this level of rainfall, however this doesn't mean we can completely dismiss this run. Both of today's run have low pressure pushing in form the North West for the weekend , this takes a few days to clear east, and rainfall builds up over a couple of days. The High Pressure builds up from the south west is slower than desired, and there remains the potential for further rain for much of the festival.

[b]06Hz progression[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:174596] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174597] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174598] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174599]
[b]12Hz progression[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:174603] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174602] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174601] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174600]
In Summary Very disappointing runs today.

[b]GFS Ensembles [/b]

The Somerset ones are not working today.

The 06Hz and the 12Hz ensembles both go with the Low Pressure from the North West for the weekend, this is followed by a slow increase in Pressure from the south west over the Festival week.

The ensembles have been rock solid in increasing pressure from the South West, albeit a bit slower than was suggested a few days ago.

[b]ECM Operational Run [/b]

The 00Hz run also makes more of Low Pressure to the east this week, but not quite as much as the GFS run, Low Pressure pushes in from the North West this weekend, before a slow increase in Pressure from the South West during the Festival week, not the best run, but South Western areas largely missing out on the worst of the weather.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:174604] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174606] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174605]
The 12Hz run makes less of the Low Pressure to our east this week, it continues the theme of the Low Pressure pushing in from the North West for next weekend, there is general agreement on this theme.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:174608] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174607] [attachment=174610:ECM 16b 240.gif]

[b]Ratings :- [/b]

Festival Dryness (0= washout, 5=dry) 5/10 an increased risk today of some rain during the festival, but probably settling down over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4/10 An increased risk of rain this week, especially from GFS, all models go for some level of unsettled weather next weekend.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), winds from a general western direction, 850HPa temps look around average.

[b]Summary [/b]

The amount of rain to be expected during this coming week is very much undecided and this could have. a big impact on ground conditions. What now seems more likely is that Low Pressure next weekend is set to give some rainfall next weekend. Big differences between the models thereafter GFS op run not keen in buildings heights, ECM far more positive.

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