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Weather guide Mon 10th to Sun 16th June 2013

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: MIxed; some rain at times, but equally dry and warm at times too (no washout!)[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A fantastic dry, warm and sunny week here in West Wales. Almost unbroken sunshine, I estimate 90 hours since this time last week. The cool air mass early in the week illustrated by 3 successive grass frosts on my lawn from Sunday to Tuesday, athough air temperatures stayed above plus 3c. The MIdlands has not fared as well being plagued by cool NE winds and low cloud from time to time, that stuck virtually the whole of Wednesday keeping it cool at below 15c max, this returning again over this weekend, reminding Midlanders how cool the North Sea still is in early Summer. Each day rose above 20c for inland Wales, with some very warm days late in the week, warmest being 25c from such diverse places as Porthmadog, Lampeter and Llanelli on Friday. At Coventry, the cool North Sea breeze prevented temperatures from getting above 20c except on Friday (20.1c). This time last year 80mm rain had fallen so far in June at Llanwnnen and 67mm at Coventry- exceptionally high figures, and the devastating floods had just occurred in the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas, but in total contrast so far this month ZERO rain. There will be some rain in the coming week, and for West Wales a cloudier week, but we lose the NE flow, and so the Midlands actually becomes warmer with above average temperatures for a change here! Thankfully no chance of the washout conditions of June 2012 are being predicted.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Yet another sunny and warm day for West Wales on Sunday, whereas the ongoing saga for the Midlands of 'will it, won't it clear?' regarding the North Sea cloud. As with Saturday, there should be sunny spells during the afternoon for the Midlands, especially the West Midlands, however none too warm at only 17c or so this afternoon, compared with 20 to 23c highs over West Wales. A clear and cool night follows, subtle changes in wind direction should halt the return of the North Sea cloud sheet for the Midlands, so close to a grass frost here too, lows of just 3 to 6c. HIgh pressure is declining over the UK during Monday as Atlantic fronts queue up to our west. Monday though a largely dry and warm day with sunny spells, the Midlands joining in as well, highs close to 21c on Monday. Just the chance of an afternoon shower over the Welsh hills. Low pressure is centred to the west of Ireland on Tuesday, with the remnants of our high over the North Sea. Fronts do cross the UK on Tuesday but these are expected to be weak and only produce a little rain in places, as is typical, West Wales more likely to be cloudy and damp, with sunny intervals for the Midlands on Tuesday. A rather warm and humid SW flow with maxima of 19c for West Wales and 22c for the Midlands (quite an improvement in fortunes here). We are in the warm sector of the low on Tuesday night so a mild, sticky kind of Summer night, lows just 12 or 13c. It could be quite a wet night for Wales as more active fronts make their presence felt, but probably only a little light rain for the Midlands. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Low pressure sytems close by to the west and north through Wednesday, so an unsettled and rather cloudy day with further rain at times, some heavy for West Wales perhaps, although again the Midlands most likely only seeing small amounts. A cooler day with all the cloud about, highs between 16 and 19c, below the mid June average. The rain should have cleared by Thursday morning, with a ridge over us, so a fine sunny day, if not especially warm as we are in a relatively cool westerly airstream, maxima ranging from 17c for coastal West Wales to 20c for the Midlands. There is a chance that the rain may linger longer into Thursday towards th east, meaning the Midlands could get a wet Thursday morning. Difficulties in forecasting Friday, although ostensibly under the influence of the ridge still, a plume of warm air is crossing the near Continent, and some heavy rain may well develop over England and Wales during Friday, but impossible to say where exactly this will effect and where will remain dry. So for Friday, something to bear in mind is that it may be turning wet even if it looks promising to start with, and if cloudy and wet, then a very cool day no higher than 13c, contrasting starkly with warmth for areas that stay dry.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Next weekend, and disapponting for us in Wales, as compared to this stunningly warm and sunny weekend we are currently experiencing, we have low pressure, cloud and rain threatening instead! Not raining all the time, more a case of sunny intervals and showers type weather through the weekend, possibly with a longer spell of rain in the mix also. Saturday probably the drier day, indeed some areas escaping with a warm sunny day, more especially the Midlands, closest to high pressure over the near Continent. Sunday and more widespread showers likely.[/size][/font]
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Oh dear how wrong at just one day out for the Midlands, that stubborn cool cloud cover, 14c max Church Lawford, very wrong!

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