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Weather guide Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th June 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mainly dry, quite sunny and rather warm, some showers; perhaps unsettled next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]It did turn drier through the latter half of the week past, although not much warmth as yet apart from the Midlands and parts of South Wales reaching the low 20's c on Friday. Some more unseasonably cool days experienced of late, Monday was very cool and wet the 'high' below 10c here, and it was a wet week over the Midlands, with a total of 32mm during the week at Coventry. Nationally, Spring 2013 was the coldest since 1962, but as far as the Central England Temperature series goes it has, amazingly, been the coldest since 1891! May, and although not particularly wet with 125mm, was the wettest since May 2006 here at Llanwnnen. At long last a welcome spell of generally warmer and drier weather in the coming week. No real heat in the offing, but we will be in the 'rather warm' category, that is slightly above the average which is 17 to 19c in early June. Unfortunately, this does not mean that the whole of Summer 2013 will be pleasant, we will have to wait and see on that, but mid June is looking poor...[/size][/font]


[font=arial][size=3]Plenty more sunshine on Sunday afternoon with temperatures close to the early June average reaching 17 to 19c widely. North and west facing coasts struggling to get above just 13c in spite of the sunshine, this because the sea temperatures are still unseasonably cool at 11c thanks to the cold Spring, and any sea breeze brings that chilly air onshore. A largely clear and chilly night follows, cold enough for a grass frost in many areas, lows 2 to 4c, so yes, we can still get frosts in a cool air mass this close to the Summer Solstice! High pressure slap bang over the UK through Monday, so another dry and sunny day, a touch warmer too, maxima 18 to 21c, although again cooling sea breezes. In spite of the high pressure, GFS model insists on showing showers developing during the afternoon, probably due to some upper atmospheric instabilty, however I feel that this risk is minimal and any showers only isolated and light, while virtually everywhere stays dry and sunny. By Tuesday our high has transferred to northern Scandinavia but still extends a ridge south over the UK. A chilly dawn on Tuesday after a largely clear night, this heralding another mainly dry day, with sunny periods and perhaps an isolated shower for the Welsh hills or Peak District. With the high to the north the drift of air on Tuesday is more from the NE so West Wales could see some of the highest temperatures, 21c in places here, but more general figures of 18 to 20c expected.

Wednesday, and the charts have that complicated, messy look to them with no discernable high or low close to our shores, a kind of synoptic 'No Man's Land'! Another cool start but the sun soon gets to work, although with the decreased pressure, and likely that a weak trough is in the mix too, providing the spark for some showers to develop through the afternoon into early evening, these most likely over Wales and where a few places could catch a heavy, even thundery downpour. Highs on Wednesday a little above average at 18 to 21c, with gentle breezes. Thursday and Friday still sees relatively high pressure over most of the UK, so more mostly dry and bright weather, with rather warm temperatures, maxima between 18 and 22c. Not completely dry, as is the theme of the week really, some places will catch a shower again towards the end of the week, but these are not expected to be at all widespread, and the vast majority of us will remain virtually dry.

The weekend may see the dry spell hanging on, but we are under threat from lows both over the near Continent, and also from the Atlantic, so we will be most fortunate if we do not see rain arrive by Sunday! The weather looks set to turn cool and wet during the week that follows, so best make the most of this coming week![/size][/font]


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Don't know why the chart thumbnails not displayed they do open upon click though

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