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Glastonbury Forecast 4 - 24th May

J10

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[b]Forecast Number 4 - Issued 24th May[/b]

This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.

[b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]


[b]Pressure[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:172203] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:172202]

June has a big +ve anomaly to the south west of the UK, and this covering much of the UK, July in contrast has more of a mixed weather pressure
Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.

[b]Temps[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:172201] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:172204]

Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.(Literally a cut and paste from last week showing no change)

[b]Rainfall[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:172206] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:172205]

June shows below average rainfall for the whole of the UK, with Glastonbury is on the edge of the 70-80% rainfall areas. For July, generlly below average rainfall for the UK including the Glastonbury area, but above average, in the Midlands.

Looking at this for a couple of weeks, it appears to me that the Midlands seems to be highlighted for showery activity when there is potential for this and due to the lower resolution of CFS, this area is always highlighted, so the above rainfall for this area is probably overstated, but understated elsewhere.

[b]Summary[/b]

Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially June) and be drier than average more especially June. The better month has changed towards June from July, but the general theme is not too bad.

I think we would all be happy with this.

There will be further analysis later of the daily raw CFS runs from Net Weather and a summary of the CFS monthly runs from Meteociel.

[b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]

These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.These take in the forecasts on the Meteociel site issued 17/5 to 2/5 May, so 7 runs in total.

Looking at June first, many of these have High pressure around the UK, quite often to the West or North of the UK, but not over the UK itself, but 4 have pressure over southern UK above average, with 3 below average, temps are generally above average around 2c, more in the north, rainfall pretty neutral away from the Midlands, but this has already been mentioned above.

[font=arial]General thoughts for July, 2 runs with pressure well above average, 2 neutral, and 2 well below average[/font], however 6 of the 7 runs, with a big +ve anomaly to the North/West of the UK, temps are generally above average around 2c,

2c, more in the north, rainfall generally below average away from the Midlands.

Current trends are for generally [font=arial]decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.[/font]

[b]Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)[/b]

[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival .................................................Start / During Festival
17/05/2013...High Pressure in Control with E winds..................LP attempt to push in from SW at times
18/05/2013...HP before, then low pressure from E pushing in..HP in West building
19/05/2013...Low Pressure to NE.............................................HP in South West slowly builds
20/05/2013...Low Pressure over UK/NE...................................HP ridging in from SW
21/05/2013...High Pressure fading...........................................LP to start, Ridge rebuilding from SW
22/05/2013...High Pressure fading...........................................LP developing over S UK to start, HP building over weekend
23/05/2013...Trough push away by High to SW....................... High generally, but perhaps LP from west Sunday

[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]

Date...........Temps..........................................................Rainfall
17/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Looking mostly dry, perhaps odd showers
18/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Some afternoon showers
19/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Showery in run-up, some rain Thursday else mainly dry
20/05/2013 Light Orange/Orange/Deep Orange ...........Showery beforehand and perhaps during festival itself
21/05/2013 Orange/Deep Orange................................. Showery to start.Drier thereafter
22/05/2013 Orange........................................................Showery, heavy rain from LP.......Set to miss to South
23/05/2013 Yellow/Orange.............................................Dry immediate build-up.A few showers mid festival, perhaps more rain sun

At this stage, looking a bit better than last week, with Higher Pressure close to the West/ South West looking a positive.

[b]Overall Summary [/b]

Early indications continue to suggest that conditions are likely to be better/around average for time of year and conditions are set to be reasonable, without mud bath conditions. Hopefully next week's update can maintain this feeling, also next week will see the Meto's long range forecast come into range and this will be looked at going forward.

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