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Glastonbury Forecast 3 - 17th May

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J10

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[b]Forecast Number 3 - Issued 17th May[/b]

This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.

[b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]

[b]Pressure[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:171377] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171378]
June shows higher pressure to the South West of the UK, with pressure over the UK close to average. July maintains the theme of higher than average pressure of top of the UK. Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.

[b]Temps[/b]

Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:171380] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171379]

[b]Rainfall[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:171381] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171382]

Very similar to last week's forecasts, June shows below average rainfall area for the South West, but above average for the Midlands, Glastonbury is just in the below average rainfall areas. A similar pattern for July but the below average range is further north, and Glastonbury is on the edge of the 80-100% rainfall areas.

[b]Summary[/b]

Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially July) and be drier than average more especially July. I think we would all be happy with this.

[b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]

These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.

Unsurprisingly these tend to tie up with the CFS monthly forecast above,
[font=arial]General thoughts for June, High pressure quite often close to the UK, with big positive anomaly[/font]to west of the UK on several runs, temps just above normal, with Northern UK consistently a bit warmer relative to average, precipitation below average generally, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.

[font=arial]General thoughts for July, Pressure higher than average over the UK on most runs, more especially for Northern UK, temps about 2-3c above normal, , precipitation below average generally, well below average to far SW, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.[/font]

[font=arial]Perhaps this indicate generally quite decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.[/font]

[b]Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)[/b]
[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival .......................Start / During Festival
11/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................Slightly less unsettled from SW
12/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.................... HP from SW, in a bit, with West/NW winds
13/05/2013 Trough over UK ..........................Trough weakens with general LP over UK
14/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................HP to SW A little unsettled west winds
15/05/2013 Trough slowly weakening out...... W flow then HP from SW towards w'kend
16/05/2013 Low Pressure before festival.......Rather unsettled as HP stays to SW Light

[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]

Date.......... Temps.............................. Rainfall
11/05/2013 Light Orange................... Wet in run-up, showery/wet across festival
12/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Wet in runup, heaviest rain to NW, but chance heavy rain Sat
13/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Showery/rain in build up and over festival
14/05/2013 Yellow to Orange..............Mix of rain and drier spells
15/05/2013 Yellow/Orange..................Rain most days, not massively heavy
16/05/2013 Orange............................ Showery,wet on 1/ 2 days

Again these daily forecasts have been less favourable than the monthly ones.

[b]Overall Summary[/b]
At this stage, no definite conclusion, but this far out that is no surprise, for those wanting a dry festival, I would certainly hope the monthly forecast are more accurate thean the daily ones.
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I've given that a pre-emptive 'hurray' and am now gargling sun cream.
Many thanks Jackone, will be watching your forecast evolve with slavish interest just like every year.

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