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Weather guide Monday 13th May to Sunday 19th May 2013 (West Wales and the Midlands centric!)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Cool and unsettled, showers or longer spells of rain; drier brighter intervals between, some ground frosts.[/b]

From Summer to Autumn it felt like last week, 23c here on Tuesday but then by Thursday it was max 11.8c. Strong winds with gales in places as well as rain on Thursday, it felt like a Winter's day in Carmarthenshire! Hail and thunder in places in the showers on Saturday. The coming week will be disappointing again for those hoping for a warm and dry spell, as the UK is sat under a cool lobe of upper atmospheric air which is most conducive to the formation of heavy showers and longer spells of rain. Some areas will see quite large totals of rain this week, a couple of inches falling in some areas.

Sunday is a cloudy, damp day, all of us eventually getting light rain and drizzle on and off, cool too no higher than 12 or 13c. With a deep low spinning towards northern Scotland, cool west to NW winds affect us on Monday, a day of sunny intervals and showers, some of these heavy with hail and thunder in places. Incidentally, the hills of Scotland seeing snow showers on Monday, so Winter goes on up there! Highs only between 10 and 13c, poor for the middle of May when we should be seeing 15 or 16c. Doubtful that anywhere will miss the showers completely on Monday as they turn more widespread through the afternoon. A secondary wave low looks set to cross southern Britain on Tuesday bringing more general wet weather, some places having 6 hours or so of heavy rain at some stage during the day, more especially over Mid and South Wales and the Midlands this. Outside of the main rain zone there will be showers scattered about too, but with a little sunshine between. A very cool and rather windy day, highs below 10c if it remains wet, and only 12c where it brightens in the afternoon. A chilly night follows the rain or showers with a ground frost for many, lows between 1 and 4c inland, but milder and frost free for coasts.

By Wednesday a complex of low pressure covers the whole of the UK, at least winds will be lighter, however the strong morning sunshine will only serve to provide energy for large Cumulonimbus clouds to develop by midday. Some very heavy and slow moving downpours scattered about on Wednesday afternoon then, hail and thunderstorms for some of us, although as always in showery set ups some places may escape completely with a dry even bright day, although hard to judge where these 'lucky' spots will be. At least feeling warmer (or at least less cool) in any sunny spells and the more gentle winds, maxima generally 12 to 14c. Most of the showers die out to clearing skies on Wednesday night, and the threat once more of a widespread ground frost, although I do not think that yesterday's GFS run is correct with it's prediction of -3c for the Welsh Marches, which would be a very damaging late season frost if it came true. Our low pressure is still close to the south through Thursday although somewhat filled up, so a better day in prospect, only light winds, fewer showers and decent sunny spells. Where showers do occur they will be heavy with thunder possible again. Warmer on Thursday highs ranging from 14 to 17c, close to average. Clearing skies with local ground frost for Thursday night, although perhaps more cloudy for the Midlands.

On Friday a new low forms over the Continent pumping up heat to Eastern Europe, but the UK remains on the cool side of this system. Some heavy and thundery rain associated with this low possibly affecting the Midlands for a time on Friday, but more probable is a continuation of the showery theme to our weather. Pembrokeshire could be favoured to miss the worst of the showers on Friday. Maxima on Friday then a near normal 14 to 17c. Hints of a ridge for next Saturday on last night's GFS run appear dashed, with a rather cool and low pressure dominated picture continuing throughout next weekend. The only uncertainty is which low pressure and from where! Needless to say further rain or showers at times next weekend, the lucky spots missing the worst of it and at least in any sunny spells it will feel warm even though maximum mercury readings in the teens belie this!
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Well we have had the couple of inches rain... in one day! More in Carmarthenshire, Pembrey 3 inches.

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So much for Pembrokeshire missing  'the worst of the showers on Friday'. South of that county thunderstorms, heavy hail, local floods, Milford Haven wettest in UK! However at leat the north of that county ws mostly dry..

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