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Weather guide Early May Bank Holiday Monday 6th to Sunday 12th May 2013

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, some rain or showers, cool down mid-week, a drier and perhaps warmer weekend[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A lovely dry and fairly sunny spell lasted until Thursday gone. We were in a cool air mass so although it felt pleasant in the strong sunshine, clear skies at night gave a run of late Spring frosts. Lowest readings include -2.9c here on Tuesday night, while Bablake, Coventry had it's lowest May reading since 1984 getting down to -0.5c, with Church Lawford just up the road managing -2c, these unusually low levels with Summer not far off! For historical comparison, here in West Wales, May 1996 saw a punishing run of often sharp frosts at Llanpumsaint, Carmarthenshire, the hardest being -4.5c on the 5th. On the 16th of the same month -4.5c was recorded in Northamptonshire (courtesy of the Climatological Observers Link). April 2013 was a cool but fairly dry month nationally, 65mm rain the total here at Llanwnnen was below average, however some areas were very dry, and Rugby recorded just 13mm for the whole month. Nothing this though compared to April 1938 when barely a drop of rain, just half a millimetre fell at Lampeter all month! Only very small amounts of rain again then in the past week but this week something more substantial in the way of rain but plenty of dry weather between times. Variable temperatures this week: Bank Holiday Monday is warm, then a cool down mid week but it could warm up again somewhat over next weekend[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Dry on Sunday afternoon bar the odd spit of drizzle for hills of West Wales, sunny spells more especially for the Midlands and where it will be quite warm. Highs on Sunday a cool 13c for coastal West Wales and 19c for brighter parts of the Midlands. Sunday night is dry with no frost. Bank Holiday Monday is actually a nice one! A slack southerly air-stream gives the highest temperatures of 2013 so far. It should also be fairly sunny, although patchy cloud affects West Wales, even some sea mist rolling onto some unfortunate beaches. A dry day for all with light winds, maxima ranging from 13c where sea mist plagues coasts, 19c inland West Wales, and a possible 21c (70f in old money) for the sunnier Midlands. Unfortunately Monday is not heralding the start of a fine, warm spell! [/size][/font]
[attachment=170080:PPVG89 dry warm BHM.png][attachment=170081:ecmt850.048 dry warm BHM.png]

[font=arial][size=3]Dry with clear spells Monday night, but changes begin as low pressure approaches Ireland. Cloudy with rain at times on Tuesday for West Wales, mainly light this rain; a bright start for the Midlands clouding over afternoon and threatening some rain later in the day. A bit of a cool down on Tuesday highs of 13 to 16c for West Wales, but still rather warm for the Midlands at around 18c or 19c, moderate SW winds. More active fronts arrive from the SW during Tuesday night and Wednesday, so that all parts get a welcome (?) soaking (good for the allotments and gardens). An area of heavy and perhaps thundery rain crosses south Wales and the Midlands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Wednesday then very disturbed with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and thundery at times, but with some sunny intervals too. ECM and UK Met Office models indicate a spell of very windy weather later on Wednesday which may bring westerly gales to exposed places also! Disappointing temperatures for Wednesday with highs between 12 and 14c generally. By Thursday the low will be close to Scotland as it starts to move away east. However, another unsettled and showery day in prospect, a cool and fresh NW wind too, but sunny spells between the showers. Hail a distinct possibility with the cool unstable air on Thursday, although hints of a ridge approaching the SW means showers should start to die out for SW Wales afternoon, perhaps even leading to a sunny evening here. Poor maxima of 10 to 13c on Thursday. Showers die out elsewhere too on Thursday night with clear periods, and there could be a ground frost with winds becoming light, lows between 2 and 5c. Friday and high pressure is attempting to ridge across southern UK so a drier theme to our weather for the end of the week. [/size][/font]
[attachment=170082:PPVJ89 some rain cooling Tue.png][attachment=170083:PPVL89 cool windy rain and showers Wed.png][attachment=170084:ecmt850.096 very disturbed and windy cooler Wed.png][attachment=170087:h850t850eu Wed rather wet.png] [attachment=170085:h850t850eu cool showery Thu.png][attachment=170086:ecmt850.120 H close to SW FRi m dry.png]

[font=arial][size=3]Subtle differences in the model output for next weekend, a band of high pressure will be at least close to our SW and south, but with low pressure influence also as lows track to the north of Scotland. Between high and low pressure a rather cool west to NW flow off the Atlantic. The upshot of this is that a reasonably dry but not especially warm weekend seems likely, although weak fronts may bring bands of cloud and light rain from time to time. In this scenario it would be cool and breezy. Another scenario is that the high exerts more strongly and extends across southern UK, so with a more definitely dry picture with sunny spells and higher temperatures. In the former cooler case maxima just 12 to 16c, in the latter a warmer 16 to 19c, in either case the Midlands will get the warmer conditions.[/size][/font]
[attachment=170088:ecmt850.168 r cool weekend little rain times.png][attachment=170089:fine dry weekend.png][attachment=170090:mgram_Birmingham.png]
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Very surprised such warmth today and that it affected Wales too!

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