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Weather guide Monday 8th to Sunday 15th April 2013 (West Wales and Midlands)

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TonyH

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[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Cool and unsettled; rain and wind at times, mostly dry Friday/ Saturday[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A cold but dry start to April, coldest over the Midlands last week with more cloud, while plenty of sunshine for West Wales meant that 9 or 10c in the afternoons felt pleasant out of the wind, and I understand that it was pleasant enough to sit outside on Saturday afternoon for the Midlands too. An exceptionally cold Friday night across Wales, the official Met Office stations of Trawsgoed and Sennybridge recording -7c, while my amateur site incredibly got down to -8.5c around dawn on Saturday, quite a few Winters have not managed so low! Comfortably the lowest April temperature I have read in my lifetime, incidentally the coldest ever April night in Wales was -11.2c back on 11th April 1978 at Corwen (diolch [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather"]@DerekTheWeather[/url][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] ). Coventry had it's coldest April night since 1990 today down to -3.6c (thanks [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]@bablakewx[/url][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] ) Three successive nights below -6c here now to this morning, that is the last extreme cold night though. It is now 15 days since measurable rain (or snow) fell at my weather station, the second such 'drought' in just two months. Milder air struggles to get over us in the coming week, it does of a fashion, but only to around the mid April average of 11 to 13c and this not until the very end of the week, and there will be rain at times, especially mid week.[/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Clouding over on Sunday afternoon but staying dry, with highs around 9c and a cold SE wind affecting West Wales in particular. Most parts dry tonight with clear spells leading to a slight frost, however a little rain may affect SW Wales, keeping it frost-free there. Weak weather fronts lie over SW Britain on Monday so a rather cloudy day with light rain in places, this more especially for SW Wales. Some sunny intervals, these most likely for the Midlands, another rather cool day, highs of 9 or 10c, with a keen ESE breeze making it feel even colder. Clear intervals leading to a slight frost in places on Monday night, although as low pressure moves into SW England further rain will threaten SW Wales and the South Midlands, this perhaps even producing sleet or snow over the Brecon Beacons and Cotswolds. This low pressure sits over southern England whilst filling up during Tuesday, which will be a cold and raw day with rain at times, some perhaps heavy in places. Maxima very poor for April at just 6 to 9c, mildest for SW Wales.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167903:PPVG89 cool breezy little rain Mon.png][attachment=167904:PPVJ89 cold raw rain at times Tue.png][attachment=167905:h850t850eu Tue cold raw rain times.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A messy synoptic set up into Wednesday with the old weather front strung out across England and Wales, as the next low edges in from the west. Even by mid week though, our cold air mass legacy from early April and before, is proving reluctant to move away, and is why it will be feeling disappointingly cool still. Still some showery rain and hill sleet or snow about through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, although any clear intervals resulting in a slight frost the air so chilly. Rain dying out for a time on Wednesday even some bright intervals, but another cool day highs just 7 to 9c. By Wednesday night the next and deep low is moving into SW England or South Wales bringing heavy rain and strong winds, not just rain either, as the low engages our cold air mass, Snowdonia and the Peak District seeing more sleet or snow. More rain and wind for Thursday morning, the wind turns NW in the afternoon as the low crosses England, so a cool, showery afternoon and evening in store, with hail in places, and highs on Thursday just 6 to 9c depending on amounts of sunshine during the afternoon.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167906:ecmt850.072 messy cool unsettled Tue Wed.png][attachment=167907:PPVL89 Wed messy cool unsettled.png][attachment=167908:ecmt850.096 wet windy Wed night.png][attachment=167909:PPVO89 cool rain or showers windy Thu.png][attachment=167910:h850t850eu cool showery Thu after rain.png][/size][/font]


[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Friday could well be the best day of the week, as the low is well to our east, with a bit of a ridge over the UK. A frosty start to Friday, then a fairly sunny and dry day for most, bar an isolated shower, and highs of 10 to 12c which is close to the mid April average.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167911:metslp.120 quiet Fri.png][attachment=167912:ecmt850.144 Fri m dry frost sun.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]It was looking as though the weekend would see a significant warm up, with mild southerly winds affecting the UK, however this is now less defined, and may well be just a 'blip'. GFS keeps relatively high pressure over England through most of the weekend, and with sunny spells temperatures would reach above average at 13 to 15c, however ECM has a nasty Atlantic low piling in by Saturday night. So according to the ECM model only Saturday may stay mild and fine, then strong to gale force southerly winds and heavy rain arrives by Saturday night and could give a washout next Sunday. Even GFS brings the rain and wind later on Sunday. It does though look as like we will have seen the back of Winter at long last come next weekend (more like Autumn perhaps!).[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167913:ecmt850.168 IL gales heavy rain late Sat Sun.png][attachment=167914:h850t850eu fine mild weekend.png][/size][/font]
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Decent sunny spells made us the mildest part of the country with Monday and Tuesday 11 - 13c, so not cool at all.

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