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Weather guide Monday 11th to Sunday 17th March (central Midlands and West Wales)

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TonyH

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[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Very cold with some snow showers, becoming less cold with some rain, night frosts[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The prolonged dry spell has ended, although not spectacularly so, with only small amounts of rain for some of us over recent days, so only a meagre 4mm here so far this month. Llanwnnen managed 21 dry days on the trot up to last Wednesday, 3 or 4 weeks is about as long a dry spell as we can expect here in damp West Wales! Most of West Wales and the Central Midlands had a lovely sunny day though last Tuesday, West Wales being the warmest part of the UK, Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth reaching 17.5c, Llanwnnen 16c and Coventry 14c. Tuesday saw a massive daily temperature range here from a dawn low of -5.5c to the afternoon high of 16c, a 21.5c rise in just 7 hours. West Wales has had a mild week, while temperatures have struggled to reach average for the Midlands since Wednesday with all the mist and murk. Hardly any daffodils out here in time for St David's Day and it is doubtful there will be many blooming even as we reach mid March, with a big change underway during Sunday to very cold conditions for the early part of this week, and then much of the coming week remaining quite cold for March.[/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A raw, cloudy afternoon on Sunday with a decaying cold front over the Midlands giving light sleet or snow at times, enough for a covering in places, especially over high ground. Another front is trying to edge into SW Wales but only bringing it's rain into Pembrokeshire. Maxima of just 3c for the Midlands and 5c for West Wales. The weak front could just give a few snow flurries to parts of West Wales this evening before dying out completely, to leave a frosty night with clearing skies, although with further snow showers affecting parts of the Midlands to give a slight covering by morning in places here.[/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure is centred over Iceland on Monday with the low over France, a real squeeze in the isobars meaning a strong bitterly cold east wind. As the wind is strong, snow showers off the North Sea will make it across the Midlands, where there may be further slight accumulations, but the snow should not cause too many problems on Monday. A few snow showers even getting as far as West Wales, but generally dry with sunny spells here. This is the coldest incursion of air all 'Winter', but as we are now well into March, and days are longer and the sun higher in the sky, temperatures will get substantially higher than they would have with the same air in January. Still, a bitterly cold day, maxima of just 1 or 2c, and with significant windchill on Monday. Still a keen wind blows through Monday night, a really penetrating hard frost down to -4c widely, and -6c for a few. Meanwhile temperatures at 5000 feet up in the clouds will be -14c, the lowest 850hPa upper atmosphere temperatures for years.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163744:PPVG89 Mon bitter windy snow showers.png][attachment=163745:ecmt850.048 Mon.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Tuesday we are between high pressure to the west and low to the east, another very cold day with a fresh NE wind. mostly dry with sunny spells, and just the odd sleet or snow shower for the Midlands, maxima of 3 to 5c. Less cold air seeps down from the north later Tuesday, so although frosty again temperatures only down to -2c or so. A lighter northerly breeze for Wednesday, sunny intervals but with some weak weather fronts moving down bringing some rain or sleet showers at times. Another cold day, maxima of 6 or 7c. Light winds and a ridge of high pressure for Wednesday night means a colder night, lows of -5c in places. Still under the ridge on Thursday so a fine and quite sunny day, but still rather cold maxima around 7c.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163746:PPVJ89 Tues cold few showers.png][attachment=163747:ecmt850.096 m dry cold R Thu bright.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Friday things are changing with a low approaching NW Britain, milder SW winds with some rain at times, highs of 8 or 9c, close to the March average. This low remains over or very close to the UK next weekend so unsettled with spells of rain or showers at times, and with quite cold air within the circulation, hill snow will be a threat, so the Peak District and Welsh hills perhaps seeing further snow next weekend. [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163748:metslp.120 milder turns unsettled Fri.png][attachment=163749:h850t850eu L nearing NW UK Fri rain at times.png][attachment=163750:ecmt850.144 Fri Sat rain or showers milder L to Ire.png][/size][/font]
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Seems it has been cold enough today for snow showers in places, especially high ground in Wales and the Midlands. Max generally 5 to 7c.

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Not just hill snow, a good inch due to evap cooling here this afternoon!

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