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Weather guide Monday 4th to Sunday 10th March 2013 (West Wales and the Midlands)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Mild, dry to start, then unsettled with rain at times[/b]

A prolonged late Winter dry spell has been welcomed after the preceding deluge since last April! 17 consecutive dry days at Llanwnnen and counting, while the dry run at Coventry was broken by a measly 0.2mm fall on Friday. Overall February was rather dry for West Wales and average to rather wet for the Midlands. February being the driest month of the year in some areas, so although the 44mm that fell on Rugby during February seems a low figure it is actually slightly above average, Coventry was more definitely wet having 58mm ([url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url])

The dry weather lasts a few more days, we get much milder conditions in the coming week, but from mid week we see a return of the rain. A hard early March frost in places last night, here in my frost prone spot, -7.3c was recorded this morning, not unusual for March, but lower than any of the official UK weather stations today. High pressure that has dominated our weather for almost 3 weeks, slips away east during Monday, but still projects a ridge across the UK. So after another frosty start, Monday continues the dry spell, variable cloud with sunny intervals, highs of 8 or 9c again. Probably the last frost of the week on Monday night, and only a slight one at that, lows around -1c. On Tuesday we are between high pressure well to the east and low pressure edging up from the SW, with a mild SE airstream having originated over North Africa affecting the British Isles. Most places staying dry with sunny intervals through Tuesday, although clouding over later for West Wales with the odd spot of rain by evening. Maxima of 12 or 13c, the mildest we have seen so far this young year.
[attachment=162839:PPVG89 H recedes dry bright Mon.png][attachment=162840:PPVK89 rain west late Tue.png]

The low centred to the SW of Ireland continues to pump up mild SE to southerly winds throughout Wednesday and Thursday, more widespread outbreaks of rain or showers tracking north, with some heavy bursts of rain at times, so the Midlands also joins in with a wetter theme! Indeed West Wales could be in for a real soaking as a succession of rain fronts pass over later Wednesday and Thursday. Brief sunny intervals possible between the showery outbreaks, feeling mild in these, highs of 10 to 12c, but with a moderate to fresh breeze. Nights also much milder from mid week, so that by Wednesday night most places remain above 7c (time to reduce the Central Heating?). The low pressure keeps spinning around to the west or SW of Ireland even to the end of the week, with further rain or heavy showers about on Friday, perhaps some warm sunny intervals between, highs around 14c in places, more especially SW Wales, well above the early March average of 8 or 9c. On the other hand, any rain areas that do develop on Friday could well be slow moving, and where it stays wet highs nearer 10c.
[attachment=162841:ecmt850.072 mild unsettled SE Wed.png][attachment=162842:PPVO89 mild very unsettled Thu.png][attachment=162846:metslp.96 mild unsettled Wed THu.png][attachment=162843:ecmt850.120 mild v unsettled Fri.png]

Next weekend and some very cold air will be getting into Scotland from the NE, bringing snow in places up there, however Wales and the Midlands should still be in the milder air circulating the low close to our SW. Further rain and showers over the weekend, frosts unlikely, and with highs between 9 and 12c. A chance that the colder air makes it on Sunday but this should hold off until a late taste of Winter for the week that follows, even with snow showers in places, this cold snap strongly suggested by recent model output.
[attachment=162844:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler by Sun.png][attachment=162845:h850t850eu unsettled cooler weekend.png][attachment=162847:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff cold snap following week.png]
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Both colder min and warmer max than expected due to clear skies, min -5.5c, max 16c.

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