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Weather guide Monday 25th February to Sunday 3rd March 2013

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TonyH

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[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing mostly dry but less cold, night frosts. Rather cloudy.[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The change to much colder conditions took place on schedule last Wednesday. A remarkable temperature range on Tuesday here, from -6c minimum up to +11c (17c) thanks to the West Wales foehn effect, in which the easterly breeze desecending the nearby Cambrian hills dried out and warmed considerably, this effect shown by the very low humidity of 39% during the afternoon. A cloudy cold spell this for the Midlands has prevented really cold nights, nothing below -1c since Wednesday at Coventry. It has been very dry of late, 10 successive dry days here in Lampeter is the longest dry spell since June 2010 (which had 14 days), and not before time! No measurable rain (or snow) for Warwickshire either, where Bablake School, Coventry has now recorded 10 consecutive dry days (below 0.2mm), but here only the longest spell since just before the Midlands 'drought' ended last April. The Midlands had a little light snow yesterday, but barely enough for a covering for the majority. [/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly dry week ahead with high pressure over or close to the UK throughout, and although still on the cold side, less cold than have been the past 5 days. The Scandinavian high that has provided this cold spell gradually transfers south-west to be centred over northern UK early this week, and so the really cold air supply from Russia is cut off as we come more under the circulation of the high itself. Clear intervals developing tonight with another frost, coldest for West Wales where it gets down to -4c in parts. Still a cold NE wind for Monday and with weak fronts being carried west across England and Wales, there will be a little drizzle or sleet in places, mostly for the Midlands but not amounting to much. A cloudy day with highs of just 4 or 5c. Similar for Tuesday, so after a slight frost, a mostly cloudy day with spits of drizzle or sleet in the air, more especially for the Midlands. Sunny intervals for parts of West Wales during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162118:PPVG89 Int H N m dry cold Mon.png][attachment=162119:ecmt850.048 cold NE flow Mon.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Wednesday or Thursday the high is centred over or just west of Ireland, and so winds are very light and the air less cold. Variable cloud through Wednesday and Thursday, some of us seeing sunny intervals while others remain largely overcast, difficult to say just where gets any sun though. Temperatures a little milder, reaching 6 to 8c, although any clear intervals will lead to frost and some fog patches readily forming overnight. In fact where fog does form on Wednesday or Thursday it could well be slow to clear during the daytime with so little wind, and where the fog and murk lasts all morning highs of just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162120:PPVK89 Int H Scot less cold dry frosts.png][attachment=162123:h850t850eu H north UK dry less cold Wed.png][attachment=162121:ecmt850.096 H Ire Thu dry less cold fog.png][attachment=162122:metslp.96 H Ire Thu dry brighter.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure still close by to the north-west on Friday, a suggestion that milder Atlantic air tracks about the high, so the mildest day of the week on Friday perhaps, with maxima around the early March average of 8 or 9c. A dry day with sunny intervals, after overnight frost and fog clears. There were strong indications for an Arctic cold blast bringing wintry showers over next weekend through the recent days model output, however this has now been much watered down due to high pressure remaining close to the UK, and with the main cold northerly thrust being pushed into the Continent instead. In fact the latest model runs suggest Saturday will be a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and average temperatures of 8 to 10c. So at the moment it looks as though the UK will miss out on the next potential cold snap? However, it is not at all unusual for sharp frosts and snow showers to fall at any stage during March even though technically we are into Spring![/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162124:ecmt850.144 Sat R dry bright frosts.png][/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162125:ecmt850.168 dry colder Sun sharp frosts.png][/size][/font]
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Surprised at the -7.3c hard frost this morning, some of that cold air made it!

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