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Weather guide Monday 4th to Sunday 10th February 2013 (West Wales and the Midlands only)

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TonyH

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[size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Mostly cold with wintry showers and night frosts; possible snow events later in the week.[/b][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]Rain amounts this past week were not high enough to give more than localised flooding. A mild week gone with no frosts until the slight ones this weekend. For the month of January temperatures averaged out a little below normal, while rainfall was close to average for both West Wales and Warwickshire, with 120mm the total at Llanwnnen and 51mm at Rugby. The weather turns quite cold again this week and many places will be seeing some snow, although this will not be a 'big freeze'! [/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]Further light rain and drizzle at times this evening and tonight, most of this for West Wales, but this mild damp air will be swept away as the cold front clears before dawn. With a deep low centred to the north of Scotland, Monday will be a bright but windy day with a few showers, mainly for West Wales. Temperatures around the average reaching 7c. There will be a ground frost, and local air frost for some on Monday night but with the breeze continuing. Showers becoming more widespread, frequent and wintry during Monday night as colder air digs down. Colder on Tuesday with a fresh to strong west to NW wind. Showery too, and with maxima of just 2 to 4c many of these showers will be of sleet, snow or hail. Most of the showers over West Wales, and on the hills above about 200m significant accumulation of snow is likely through Tuesday, although at lower levels, especially below about 100m, any settling is likely to be only temporary. A lobe of less cold air tracks down later on Tuesday so that showers tend to turn more to sleet or rain during the evening, especially below 300m. Becoming frosty eventually overnight.[/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158914:PPVG89 windy some showers Mon DL.png][attachment=158915:PPVJ89 cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158916:ecmt850.048 cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158917:h850t850eu cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158919:ecmt850.072 less cold Tue night.png][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]Another cold and windy day on Wednesday, and with the low by this time over the North Sea/ Denmark area, winds will have turned northerly. Further wintry showers affecting West Wales, some quite heavy with hail, and with snow settling above about 200m again. The Preseli hills the favourite for a snow covering on Wednesday perhaps, with a shower 'streamer ', sometimes referred to as a 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' in which a line of showers track all the way down the Irish Sea in the north flow making landfall on the north Pembrokeshire coast. [/font][/color][/size][color=#000000][font=arial]Some wintry showers also affecting the MIdlands on Wednesday, few and far between west of Coventry, with most over the East Midlands, some good sunny spells though on Wednesday for much of the Mildands. [/font][/color][color=#000000][font=arial]Highs of 3 or 4c on Wednesday, feeling very chilly in the fresh to strong north wind. Clear periods and a few wintry showers overnight leading to a slight frost. Lighter winds for Thursday, sunny intervals and wintry showers in places, with again snow for high ground. Maxima 3 to 5c. However, disturbances or troughs could be tracking south in a slack, cold northerly flow to bring wintry showers or possibly a longer spell of sleet or snow in places later on Thursday, so something to look out for surprise snowfall-wise?[/font][/color]
[size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158918:PPVL89 cold wintry showers Pembs Dangler Wed.png][attachment=158920:ecmt850.120 poss disturbance surprise Thu.png][attachment=158921:h850t850eu cold wintry showers Thu.png][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]Friday will see the Azores high ridging NE over the UK so a generally dry but quite cold day with good sunny spells. Less cold air is at this point attempting to ride over the ridge into the UK so it may be milder especially for Pembrokeshire/ SW Wales on Friday, maxima ranging from 4c over the Midlands to 7c over West Pembrokeshire. This then leads us into a POTENTIAL battleground snow event next weekend, as an Atlantic trough tries to move into the cold air over Europe according to the ECM model. The models are showing differing scenarios for next weekend (as often!) some have the cold winning out after the battleground snow possibility, while others see less cold air making it over us with just rain, we shall see...but it is difficult to get proper snow in southern Britain.[/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158923:h850t850eu R dry Fri.png][attachment=158922:ecmt850.168 battleground west Sat.png][attachment=158924:h850t850eu milder some rain weekend.png][/font][/color][/size]
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Mysteriously the precipitation has largely avoided West Wales overnight and this morning, so even the hills are snow free! Mid and East Wales copped it instead. GFS too low with it's temperatures for today, my 2 to 4c maxima have already been exceeded in places this morning.

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Sometimes it goes wrong...badly wrong 6c currently! I was toying with a 'rather cold' headline, wish I had gone for that now, just hoping tomorrow is proper cold.

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Rubbish yesterday! Success today a Pembrokeshire Dangler most of the day!
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Overall a chilly not cold week., No snow here, and very little visible frost, somewhat more genuinely cold for the Midlands and at least they had a little snow. Just shows -8c uppers do not necessarily equate to very cold and snow, cold uppers did not establish.

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