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Weather guide Monday 21st to Sunday 27th January 2013

TonyH

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[size=3][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Continuing very cold with more snow at times, snow cover persisting. Thaw possible next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]The snows duly arrived on Friday, for most of us. Carmarthen and some other spots somehow remained green oases in a white West Wales landscape, neighbouring Pembrokshire, Llanelli and all surrounding hills received at least a cm or so. Depths of snow heard about incude: Llanwnnen 9cm, Llanelli 4cm, Aberystwyth several cm, Coventry 15cm and Rugby 11cm. Also the River Teifi webcam, near Newcastle Emlyn showed that there escaped the snow too. Greatest depths were as predicted by the Met Office in the South Wales hills, with close on a foot! The snow has managed to stick with temperatures struggling to get much above freezing during this weekend, however with all the cloud there have not been any really cold nights yet in this spell, no nights below -3c here in West Wales in the past week. Much of the coming week remains very cold and with low pressure often close by, there will most likely be fresh snowfalls adding to what we already have, although it is going to be difficult to pinpoint just where and when these snowfalls will be, suffice to say that, much like todays fall in the Midlands, various areas will get surprised by new snowfalls. The thaw MAY arrive next weekend. [/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]Much of the central Midlands is getting a fresh blanket of snow today, with several more inches widely and it is still coming down, Warwickshire and Birmingham is getting hardest hit by this snow, Nuneaton has had over 3 inches fresh snow today, an amount that was not being forecast even this morning! This is from a trough that has moved NW from France, and is also affecting East Wales. There may be some light snow flurries for mid and NW Wales too this evening, but not likely to amount to much here. So spells of moderate snow lasting most this evening over the Midlands giving several additional inches in places. Skies may clear after midnight in SW Wales and the south MIdlands leading to a sharp frost of -5c in places, but only -1c under the cloud further north.[/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]Mondays charts are very messy looking with various slow moving fronts and little lows over or close to the UK. There will be snowfalls affecting various areas, most of the snow should be quite light, but as with today some spots could see a good few inches top up, more likely NW Wales and the NW Midlands perhaps, however, be aware that a surprise snow event could crop almost anywhere in such an ill defined synoptic set up! Another very cold day on Monday, temperatures again struggling to reach freezing point over the Midlands, and just 2 or 3c at best for West Wales. A day that fails to reach 0c is known as an 'Ice day', these are few and far between in a typical Winter in southern Britain, and in milder winters there may be none recorded at all.[/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156473:PPVE89 (1) cold messy snow in places.png][/font][/color]


[color=#000000][font=arial]Another low tracks over SW England during Tuesday again engaging our cold air mass, before this another severe frost in places, down as low as -10c where there is deep snow cover coupled with clear skies. Snow at times then on Tuesday, more especially for West Wales, where heavy falls are possible locally. Very cold again, it will be an ice day in places, although SW Wales should manage 2c. The low edges into France through Wednesday but is close enough for snow showers to spread west from the North Sea, affecting mainly the Midlands, and with only a few expected to make it over the mountains to West Wales. An easterly breeze on Wednesday and again very low temperatures, maxima only 1 or 2c. [/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156474:PPVJ89 Ch L snow for S.png][attachment=156475:ecmt850.072 Ch L Tue night snow threat S.png][attachment=156480:h850t850eu slack E Wed.png][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]At this stage it looks like higher pressure builds over the UK for Thursday, which looks like a mostly dry but frosty day with sunny spells, maxima of just 1c, but reaching 3c for Pembrokeshire. Another sharp frost follows for Thursday night. Changes start from Friday, signalling a likely thaw for next weekend. A deep Atlantic low approaches Ireland late on Friday with strenghening southerly winds by evening over Wales. Friday could also be a mostly dry day, as high pressure is close to Eastern England, although snow or rain may affect West Wales by midnight. Possibly the last of the really cold days, Friday should be another ice day for the Midlands, and feeling raw with the freshening wind over West Wales, although temperatures here could be up to 4c or so by evening. [/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156476:PPVO89 m dry frosty Thu.png][attachment=156477:ecmt850.120 cold R Thu to Fri.png][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]Very uncertain prospects for next weekend, some model runs recently have showed a big change to milder unsettled conditions, with 10c predicted for Wales, HOWEVER, the ending of a cold spell is hard to predict, and today's models have showed the cold block putting up much more of a fight over next weekend. There is then certainly the risk of a big 'battleground' snow event next weekend, the latest GFS run shows this, and east and north Wales and the Midlands would get a quite severe snowstorm, but with less cold air meaning rain or sleet for SW Wales away from high ground. ECM's latest offering has a deep low over SW England next Saturday night which would bring strong winds and blizzards for high ground at least! [/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156478:ecmt850.168 hill blizzard Sat night.png][attachment=156479:prectypeuktopo battleground event Sat.png][attachment=156481:h850t850eu possible battleground Sat.png][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial]A very uncertain outlook then with the threat of snowfalls right through to next weekend, however we cannot dismiss those recent model runs that suggest a thaw over next weekend instead. Overall it is expected that there will eventually be a thaw next weekend, at least for West Wales, the snow possibly lasting longer over the Midlands.[/font][/color]

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Bit more thaw than expected although still have decent covering at mid week. Surprise snow falls indeed - Llanelli and other parts of SW Wales today! No severe frost as yet, cloud all the way.

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Mild won out comfortably on Friday night, yes battleground snowfalls, but not for West Wales or the Central Midlands, close shave for the latter though.

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