Weather prospects for the Midlands and west Wales: Monday 7th to Sunday 13th January 2013
Entry posted by TonyH
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[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, turning colder, night frosts. Very cold with snow threat later.[/b][/size][/font]
[b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]2012 was a very wet year, the second wettest year of the past century for the UK averaged out overall.[/size][/font][/b]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 1526mm wettest year since 2008
Coventry, Bablake School: 894mm, wettest since 2007
Rugby:874mm, wettest since 1882 (916mm)!
These figures show that Coventry tends to be wetter than it's near neighbour, due to Rugby being that bit further east. The Midlands are - needless to state - a lot drier than west Wales, with an exceptionally wet year at Rugby still being drier than the driest ever years at Llanwnnen. Incredibly the first 3 months of 2012 were dry with drought orders in place, and just 85mm from January to March at Rugby.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]December 2012 figures (again very wet):[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 257mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Coventry: 117mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Rugby: 112mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Almost certainly 2013 must be drier! At least January has began in a much drier, benign vein, however, the highest barometer readings since May (1039mbar), did not prevent occasional drizzle from falling over west Wales. Still no snow this Winter for most of us, and 2012 had no lying snow at all at Llanwnnen. A mild start to the year, the past 4 nights staying above 8c at Llanwnnen, the DAYTIME average for January is lower than this at 7c. Turning much colder by next weekend and there MAY be snow in places.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly cloudy but mild afternoon on Sunday, just the odd spit of drizzle for parts of west Wales, maxima around 10c once more. Our high pressure is losing ground to Atlantic fronts, but has enough presence to our south-east to keep at least the Midlands dry still on Monday. A waving front over Ireland threatens a little rain or drizzle at times on Monday for Wales, and perhaps some heavier bursts for Snowdonia. Mild again highs around 10c once more. Quite a strong SW wind developing for west Wales. The cold front slowly crosses all parts during Tuesday, so another mostly cloudy day. with rain slowly working east. Probably wet even to start the day for west Wales, while it may be late in the day before rain reaches the Midlands. A wet Tuesday in prospect for west Wales though, some rather heavy rain at times here. Tuesday is however the last of the mild days this week. [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151498:PPVG89 some rain WW dry Mids Mon.png][attachment=151499:PPVJ89 CF rain to east Tue.png][attachment=151500:ecmt850.048 tr slowly comes over Tue wet pm.png][attachment=151501:ukprec wet day west Wales Tues.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A ridge of high pressure follows the rain for Wednesday, which starts with a ground frost for many places. Then a nice bright and dry day but cooler than of late, maxima of 7 or 8c, close to the January average. Wednesday night is largely clear and frosty with fog patches affecting some areas by Thursday morning. Big changes in our weather pattern underway from Thursday leading to a much colder and potentially wintry one, as a blocking high forms somewhere to our north. The exact positioning of this high will dictate how cold it gets from next weekend, but the potential is there for a very cold spell setting in with snow in places.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151502:PPVL89 dry bright Wed.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]But back to Thursday itself, our ridge is getting squeezed by lows to the west and north-east, will this hang on? If so another bright, and coldish day after a frosty and possibly foggy start, however rain may threaten west Wales later. Exact weather details becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint as we enter atmospheric flux, so do not make plans on the basis of this guide for next weekend! It is most likely that during Friday low pressure slides close to SW UK bringing rain here, hard to say how far north-east this extends at this predictive range, so Friday looks dry for most, but rain may edge up, more especially into south Wales and perhaps also the south Midlands, and as it does so colder Continental air is dragged over the UK. Just the chance of rain turning to snow for southern parts later on Friday or on Friday night, a cold and raw day maxima probably just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151503:met.96 THu R m dry.png][attachment=151504:PPVO89 R hangs on Thu tr into SW.png][attachment=151505:ecmt850.144 FRi cold raw snow threat south.png][attachment=151506:h850t850eu cold m dry Fri.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The ECM model has a very cold scenario next weekend, with a high close to Iceland and low over the near Continent, a really cold raw NE blast over the UK. GFS also shows a very cold weekend to come, but with a Scandinavian high in place. It will not take much in these kind of set ups for localised snowfalls to occur, no way of knowing where and when as yet, but suffice to say next weekend looks very cold with snow in places. Maxima barely above freezing come Sunday, so quite a shock to the system after all the mild, quiet weather of late! The cold set up looks like lasting well into the following week too.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151507:ecmt850.168 v cold windy weekend snow showers poss.png][attachment=151508:h850t850eu Scand H v cold tr into W snow threat.png][/size][/font]
[b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]2012 was a very wet year, the second wettest year of the past century for the UK averaged out overall.[/size][/font][/b]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 1526mm wettest year since 2008
Coventry, Bablake School: 894mm, wettest since 2007
Rugby:874mm, wettest since 1882 (916mm)!
These figures show that Coventry tends to be wetter than it's near neighbour, due to Rugby being that bit further east. The Midlands are - needless to state - a lot drier than west Wales, with an exceptionally wet year at Rugby still being drier than the driest ever years at Llanwnnen. Incredibly the first 3 months of 2012 were dry with drought orders in place, and just 85mm from January to March at Rugby.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]December 2012 figures (again very wet):[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 257mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Coventry: 117mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Rugby: 112mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Almost certainly 2013 must be drier! At least January has began in a much drier, benign vein, however, the highest barometer readings since May (1039mbar), did not prevent occasional drizzle from falling over west Wales. Still no snow this Winter for most of us, and 2012 had no lying snow at all at Llanwnnen. A mild start to the year, the past 4 nights staying above 8c at Llanwnnen, the DAYTIME average for January is lower than this at 7c. Turning much colder by next weekend and there MAY be snow in places.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly cloudy but mild afternoon on Sunday, just the odd spit of drizzle for parts of west Wales, maxima around 10c once more. Our high pressure is losing ground to Atlantic fronts, but has enough presence to our south-east to keep at least the Midlands dry still on Monday. A waving front over Ireland threatens a little rain or drizzle at times on Monday for Wales, and perhaps some heavier bursts for Snowdonia. Mild again highs around 10c once more. Quite a strong SW wind developing for west Wales. The cold front slowly crosses all parts during Tuesday, so another mostly cloudy day. with rain slowly working east. Probably wet even to start the day for west Wales, while it may be late in the day before rain reaches the Midlands. A wet Tuesday in prospect for west Wales though, some rather heavy rain at times here. Tuesday is however the last of the mild days this week. [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151498:PPVG89 some rain WW dry Mids Mon.png][attachment=151499:PPVJ89 CF rain to east Tue.png][attachment=151500:ecmt850.048 tr slowly comes over Tue wet pm.png][attachment=151501:ukprec wet day west Wales Tues.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A ridge of high pressure follows the rain for Wednesday, which starts with a ground frost for many places. Then a nice bright and dry day but cooler than of late, maxima of 7 or 8c, close to the January average. Wednesday night is largely clear and frosty with fog patches affecting some areas by Thursday morning. Big changes in our weather pattern underway from Thursday leading to a much colder and potentially wintry one, as a blocking high forms somewhere to our north. The exact positioning of this high will dictate how cold it gets from next weekend, but the potential is there for a very cold spell setting in with snow in places.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151502:PPVL89 dry bright Wed.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]But back to Thursday itself, our ridge is getting squeezed by lows to the west and north-east, will this hang on? If so another bright, and coldish day after a frosty and possibly foggy start, however rain may threaten west Wales later. Exact weather details becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint as we enter atmospheric flux, so do not make plans on the basis of this guide for next weekend! It is most likely that during Friday low pressure slides close to SW UK bringing rain here, hard to say how far north-east this extends at this predictive range, so Friday looks dry for most, but rain may edge up, more especially into south Wales and perhaps also the south Midlands, and as it does so colder Continental air is dragged over the UK. Just the chance of rain turning to snow for southern parts later on Friday or on Friday night, a cold and raw day maxima probably just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151503:met.96 THu R m dry.png][attachment=151504:PPVO89 R hangs on Thu tr into SW.png][attachment=151505:ecmt850.144 FRi cold raw snow threat south.png][attachment=151506:h850t850eu cold m dry Fri.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The ECM model has a very cold scenario next weekend, with a high close to Iceland and low over the near Continent, a really cold raw NE blast over the UK. GFS also shows a very cold weekend to come, but with a Scandinavian high in place. It will not take much in these kind of set ups for localised snowfalls to occur, no way of knowing where and when as yet, but suffice to say next weekend looks very cold with snow in places. Maxima barely above freezing come Sunday, so quite a shock to the system after all the mild, quiet weather of late! The cold set up looks like lasting well into the following week too.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151507:ecmt850.168 v cold windy weekend snow showers poss.png][attachment=151508:h850t850eu Scand H v cold tr into W snow threat.png][/size][/font]
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