Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
  • entries
    30
  • comments
    25
  • views
    43,057

Weather Model Experiment 2012 Results

Zenarcher

1,199 views

In 2011 I done a experiment to see how the models perform in 2012 I done the same thing. The experiment took place during September and October. Basically how it works fairly they all make a forecast on the same day at the same time (12z) then when the actual time comes I check the actual weather conditions and see how accurate they were. The models faced tough challenges mainly in September when Hurricane Nadine made the models struggle. The points system rewards the models more points the further out they get things right so if they get something right in the next 24 hours the points awarded are not all that big but at 144 hours the points rewarded are huge.

[b]24 hours[/b]

1. GEM 120
2. GME 110
3. ECM 110
4. GFS 100
5. UKMO 100
6. JMA 100
7. BOM 100
8. NOGAPS 80

[b]Comments -[/b] It was always really close but GEM did surprise me to come out on top.

[b]48 hours[/b]

1. ECM 100
2. UKMO 100
3. GFS 90
4. GME 80
5. JMA 80
6. GEM 80
7. BOM 80
8. NOGAPS 70

[b]Comments -[/b] It was again very close here and we end up with the ECM and UKMO with the same points.

[b]72 hours[/b]

1. NOGAPS 100
2. GFS 90
3. ECM 80
4. UKMO 80
5. JMA 80
6. GME 70
7. BOM 70
8. GEM 60

[b]Comments -[/b] I was surprised to see NOGAPS score the best here considering it did the poorest with 24 and 48 hours.

[b]96 hours[/b]

1. GFS 150
2. UKMO 150
3. JMA 150
4. BOM 135
5. ECM 120
6. NOGAPS 120
7. GEM 120

[b]Comments -[/b] A three way tie between the GFS, UKMO and JMA, I was surprised to see the JMA do well here.

[b]120 hours[/b]

1. GEM 175
2. UKMO 145
3. ECM 130
4. BOM 125
5. JMA 105
6. GFS 95
7. NOGAPS 50

[b]Comments -[/b] GEM just done incredible here most of the time it got things spot on not only that it was consistent as well.

[b]144 hours[/b]

1. UKMO 195
2. GEM 185
3. JMA 155
4. BOM 145
5. ECM 120
6. GFS 115
7. NOGAPS 35

[b]Comments - [/b]Very close between the UKMO and GEM but the UKMO just managed to gain a few more points.

[b]Overall[/b]

1. UKMO 770.
2. GEM 740.
3. JMA 670.
4. ECM 660.
5. BOM 655.
6. GFS 640.
7. NOGAPS 455.
8. GME 260.

[b]Comments -[/b] Last year the ECM took the victory well now it's dropped down to 4th, GEM and JMA done better this year and UKMO overall was the best performing model through the whole experiment gaining 30 points more than GEM in second.

I hope you found this interesting it is not meant to say what model is the best or anything but just a experiment I done and would like to share with you all.


3 Comments


Recommended Comments

That's interesting, the GEM is a very good model and has been for a while and is underrated I think. The current verification stats for the NH though has the ECM as King (as it usually is) with the UKMO second as it usually is too. GFS, GEM and JMA often fight it our 3rd place. GFS probably 3rd overall though.

Share this comment


Link to comment
thanks for that W-doing this sort of check is a first class way of doing objective checking although of course your assessments are subjective. thanks again-hope you carry on doing this sort of thing
John

Share this comment


Link to comment
Yes I feel GEM is underrated as well.

Thanks John I'll be doing it again at some point in 2013.

Share this comment


Link to comment
×
×
  • Create New...