My Weather Diary of January 2013
Entry posted by A Winter's Tale
1,251 views
1st January - New Year's Eve: Happy new year! At midnight, the first moments of the new year was cold and chilly westerly breeze. There was a fantastic moon over Glasgow but gradually cloud cover increased from approching showers from the west and the moon was covered. You could see the lanterns moving in same direction as the clouds and also very quickly too. Then it started to rain. Looking at the car there was some sleety stuff or rain with a wintry element landing on the cars and during a heavier shower in the early hours it left a covering. Certainly sleety but not quite enough to convince me that it was snow event worth putting into my snow diary for the winter. During the early hours it was cold with a low of 2C at Glasgow Airport and the sky altered between a lovely starry sky with a moon and an orange sheet from incoming showers. And it was a lovely winter's day and nice start to the weather of 2013 with stunning winter sunshine, clear, blue skies. It was quite chilly when I went for a walk at Kilmardinny Loch but a lovely sunset despite the chilly breeze. Maximum temperature at Glasgow airport 8C. There was snow in the highlands in the early hours but precipitation in the showers was more of rain later in the day but the shower become somewhat less frequent in what was a fine winter's day. With high pressure edging further north into southern areas of the British Isles it is going to be settled - Scotland will be vulnerable to some precipitation and it could be quite dull at times - and on the whole it should be mild but as the settled theme continues further into the first half of January the position or role the anticyclone has in relation to the British Isles could enable a possible frosty anticyclonic period, and in correspondance with the predicted SSW synoptically things will get interesting further into January - especially the second half of the month. Possibly January will the reverse of December 2012, except perhaps both the mild and cold halves will be more potent?
2nd January: A much milder day with a high/low of 11/4C at Glasgow airport. The pleasant and seasonal conditions of yesterday was replaced by a milder atlantic flow as a result of high pressure to our south. It has been a largely dull and overcast day here with spells of light rain and drizzle and this should continue overnight and into tomorrow. This pattern should last from a good number of days but it's anyone's guess as to what follows - how will the current synoptic pattern correspond with stratospheric changes that are afoot.
3rd January:
Another largely overcast, classic atlantic day in the middle of winter. There were spells of drizzle and a little of wind at times. A very mild day too with temperatures at Glasgow airport above 10C all day and max of 12C. This sort of atlantic driven, mild, overcast and at times damp conditions should last for a wee while but the pattern change is on the horizon and as we grow ever closer toward a key period the models should be really exciting to be following right now.
4th January:
Another mild day here with max/min at Glasgow airport of 11/9C. A better day, mostly dry other than a little drizzle at times. There was some decent clear spells and some periods of brightness in the afternoon but the generally cloudy theme continued this evening and should do so for the next 4 days and there should be some spells of rain too as front move in ontop of the high into Scotland and Ireland - NE Scotland best for sunshine. Pretty mild too for the next few days but a pattern change is coming around midmonth but there's great variability at this stage in how the models experiment with the SSW that's very likely but this makes for exciting times with a potentially excellent outcome.
5th January:
Another mild day here. There was some sunshine breaking through the cloud cover in the morning but overcast skies resumed pretty soon with the cold front arriving in the evening. It soon cleared and now it is clear, calm with a starry sky which is nice to see after the previous overcast nights.
The background signals are really looking good for HLB over Greenland. The models are only starting to deal and map out the effects on the SSW so there's a lot of uncertainty and variability so it's about waiting and seeing how the synoptics unfold during the many days to come and it'll be a whilte until we firm up a clear picture about the pattern change. Certainly in about 5 days it will be colder air, probably staying settled aswell. It seems like high pressure will end up between Iceland and Scandinavia and this needs further observation and the Iberian High may push further northwards towards Greeland so there's a lot to look out for, it's early days and there's many hurdles that need to be jumped but the prospects going forward further into January is looking good. It'll be a pleasure to watch this unfold and this sort of spectacle doesn't deserve whinging (in the MT) if all doesn't go well. Loads of potential, it's gonna turn colder, very uncertain and variable but this makes for very exciting and interesting times. It will be fascinating to see this evolve and god knows what sort of progress will be made between this update and the next tomorrow night.
6th January:
Another mild, overcast day with some damp conditions from some weather fronts. The damp conditions should continue tomorrow before turning cooler behind the front and it should stay cool/cold through the rest of next week. The weekend is interesting as the models picked up the idea of high pressure north of Scotland and overnight it should some excellent potential but whatever it brought, it was always going to be a starter as the SSW occured today, the tropospheric effects will occur further down the line and the changes occuring over this coming week and next weekend is a result of the transition of different patters. It's a very variable outlook but the background signals remain decent for HLB that should occur later but the path to HLB remain unclear but whatever unfolds next week in the models will be fascinating and potentiall we could see the high pressure in the atlantic ridge northwards towards Greenland. But it's very early days in this pattern change but it seems that during the process of it all, we'll end up cooler next week, possibly followed up by surface cold and there is potential for the real effects of the SSW to occur later.
7th January:
Another very mild day but it has been dull, overcast, dark, gloomy and very wet with a bit of mist in the evening 10/9C at Glasgow airport. Tomorrow should be wet but clearing and colder air should follow leaving a sunny and cold day on Wednesday, Thursday looking cold too with a front moving in from the west and with high pressure towards Scandinavia, an easterly flow, so a cold weekend but the real uncertainty lurks beyond the weekend - a decent chance of it staying cold but we need to see what sort of charts and scenarios unfold throughout this week.
8th January:
Another mild day with maximum temperature of 11C, grey and wet to begin with but as the cold front cleared it was a clear afternoon allowing for a nice wintry sunset and dusk for once. A starry evening too. A cold night instore, currently 5C at Glasgow airport and there should be fog and mist patches across the British Isles. Tomorrow dry and cold, followed by a widespread frost in the north then a front moving in on Thursday. However with block to our north, a cold weekend looks likey and today, there has been big upgrades in the 12zs and GFS 18z about the snow prospects (particulary in England) for the weekend and it looked good in todays 12z runs for Greenland blocking at a semi-reliable time frame - but there's a lot of scatter in the ensembles so still very uncertain - and FI on some runs has been of epic proportions. Very exciting period of model watching coming up and indeed the actual weather itself should be equally thrilling to follow. Background signals looking good for cold later on - huge potential but very early days. Plus the most users on line was smashed for the GFS 18z.
9th January:
A stunning winter's sunset earlier with red skies to the west and a pale/purple sky to the west. There was a little rain in the early hours with some cloud from the west. There were alternating clear periods and some periods with increased cloud cover but generally it was a bright day - especially when compared to what we've seen so far this month. A cool day too with maximum of 8C and currently a low of 2C at Glasgow Airport. Hopefully by dawn there'll be the first air frost on 2013, and the first since the 13th or 14th of December. Tomorrow could be a cloudy day with the UK sat between two weather fronts but certainly it should be a cold day. The cold theme continues into Friday and especially the weekend should see frosts, cold temperatures by day and increased snow risk for UK, especially in England with the easterly wind but eastern Scotland could see something. Even though it's within the 5 day outlook, there'll be subtle changes which will have a big impact on what happens, so confidence is low regarding the detail of this weekend. A mixed day for high pressure extending to Greenland, the GFS op has had a shortwave drama near Iceland, but FI doesn't fit with the background signals. And much of the other models, and indeed GFS ensembles down support the GFS op and the ECM 12z was another stonker. High uncertainty but thrilling.
10th January:
A return to winter for the first time this month. Current maximum 3C at Glasgow airport and first Air frost - low of -2C - since just before mid-December. However the sun failed to turn up because of quite dense fog this morning and indeed right now and mist and grey skies persisted all day - largely dry too. The potential for snow starts later tomorrow and throughout the weekend into the start of next week. Probably more likely in the east but it's a very complicated picture so we'll only know until the last minute. Temperatures should be low too so this should make for an interesting weekend. And model watching has been gripping today with EPIC ECM runs, consistency in GFS in 06z and 12z with regards to how GFS differs from other models but 18z was an improvement - ensembles paint a different story for GFS - so it continues to be a very volatile affair and anything could happen.
11th January:
Temperatures at Glasgow airport close to normal for winter 6/3C. Quite grey and overcast to begin with, a few clear breaks but a beautiful dusk in the afternoon with clear skies and a wounderful wintry tint of light blue. Now there's a sheet of cloud with a little clear strip to the south. Some drizzle and light rain across the south west during the night, mostly cloudy for Scotland but some clear intervals in the north west. A chilly night too and the colder upper air and sub 528 dam air should spread from the west, a south easterly flow developing and some snow showers for parts of Scotland such as Angus during Saturday. On Sunday a band of precipitation moving in from the north west could bring some snow to Scotland and there are oppurtunities for snow during the early part of next week across the British Isles. Beyond Wednesday next week and it's uncertain.
12th January:
Went to Lochgoilhead during the morning and left in the afternoon. It seemed to be clear skies at dawn, a mixture of clear and cloud patches in the sky on the drive up and at Lochgoilhead, the sun occasionally coming up to give a very wintry golden colour on the mountains (light snow cover down to below 2000ft) and shimmering on the loch. Very chilly in the south easterly wind. Overcast on the way back. At Glasgow airport, another day with typical, quite chilly temperatures of 5/2C, no air frost but atleast the maximum was below 5C which makes things seasonal. It went down to below -7C in the highlands last night. A tiny bit of snow in some parts of eastern Scotland with showers, some snow in a few parts of eastern England with showers, and with a front coming down the from north west there has been some snow in parts of the highlands. Now overcast with this feature getting closer to the central belt. It's unclear whether it'll be snow away from the coast, or snow on the high ground but precipitation from this feature is meant to persist throughout the night, morning and afternoon. Some parts of the country will get a fair bit of snow. Another front follows, potential for snow but the warm sector could be problem. The models show a cold, settled week with the potential for some very low temperatures - through time we'll get more ideas about what the latter part of this coming week will be like.
13th January:
I woke up to fairly moderate-heavy snowfall at 9am which is the first here (Bearsden, and also most likely Torrance aswell) and at Glasgow airport this year. It left a covering of 1cm on top of the car and the trees, cars, grass, roofs and some drive way were all white - surpasses anything that we saw in January or February 2012. But once the snow stopped falling before lunchtime, it was a wet affair and the snow melted quite quickly. I went for a drive to the whangie and in the upper part of Milngavie, Craigton and on the road towards Queen's view there was a lot of lying snow and a winter wonderland - but the precipitation was rain. Then to my surprise, just after that there was no sign of any snow whatsoever in Kilearn, Drymen and Fintry - the whole valley was green. The Campsies was white however with snow falling. Came through Torrance and it was raining but I noticed the remains of some of the lying snow on a few gardens so it was the first falling and lying snow of the year there too - in my snow diary, I've said depth of 1cm which is the highest depth I recorded today at one of the two sites I spend my time at). The snow generally across Scotland was of a wet nature with little significant accumilations across lower levels. Now the same band is bringing snow to large parts of England. A cold day at Glasgow airport, an air frost and maxima/minima of 3/0C makes for a cold winter's day. Tomorrow, another band in the morning but mostly rain in Scotland - then followed by an easterly flow for a few days, pretty cold, then possibly a snowy breakdown for the end of the week but this is very uncertain as we don't know the details that will decide whether it'll be snow, how significant it will be and where, and whether it will be a breakdown at all.
14th January:
It rained during the night but it brought snow to Aberdeenshire and quite a few areas of England but hardly stunning. Some lovely winter sunshine and clear skies through the day and the crescent moon was visible at dusk. With winds turning to more of a north easterly there is currently precipitation in eastern areas. An band of decaying snow showers crossed the area recently and I saw the area of thin cloud cover (with the orange glow of Glasgow) move south across the central belt with the fantastic crystal clear, starry and dark night sky. A cold day at Glasgow airport 4/0C. The next few days probably cold and dry, then there is the potential for a very significant breakdown for the weekend and the cold theme may be maintained beyond anything after this weekend is uncertain.
15th January:
The cold spell continues. Maximum temperature of 3C and currently -4C at Glasgow airport. -12.7C at Braemar and Dyce has recorded it's coldest temperatures since Boxing Day 2010. A glorious winter's day here with frost and a stunning winter dusk with crystal clear sky, not a breath of wind and a crescent moon. There was a little snow in eastern parts of Scotland and in some eastern areas of England and sattelite imagery should that a number of areas have lying snow (mostly on the higher ground). There was further distruption in east Anglia and there's low level lying snow in Aberdeenshire. A front out to the west may bring rain to the western isles of Scotland, if it pushes further inland then there could be snow. Tomorrow, could be a cloudier day here but another cold one. Into Thursday and the cold conditions continue possibly some precipitation here coming off the Irish Sea. For the end of the week there is a battle between the atlantic and cold air. Scotland should keep surface cold and cold uppers, but there's uncertainty about how Scotland could be affected with the band of precipitation that will certainly bring a significant snow event to parts of the British Isles between Friday and Monday. It's a complicated affair but it seems Scotland may hang onto the cold air through next week with possible reloads and potentially a more significant blocking pattern further down the line.
16th January:
The coldest day of 2013 so far. Maximum of 1C and minimum -4C at Glasgow airport. And there was a snow flurry here in the afternoon, part of a patchy band of precipitation moving in from the west that's bringing snow to Wales. A very cold night in Aberdeen - coldest since December 2010 and it dropped to -13C in Norflok. There was some sunshine in the early afternoon but it's dry, cold and cloudy. Overnight it should remain cloudy here but during the day the clear skies in the east should be more widespread during the afternoon. Then Friday is interesting, battleground sets up as a front meeting the cold air turns to snow - met office warning covering much of the UK, amber in parts of England and Wales. But there's lots of uncertainties regarding how heavy and how far east the snow will fall over Scotland - south west of Scotland most favourable for distruptive snowfall. But it looks like staying cold throughout the weekend, snow showers in a SEly flow in eastern Scotland and staying cold into the first part of next week. ECM 12z was a cracker so there's still model variability post Sunday thus lot's of uncertainty but we are in thrilling times.
17th January:
Another cold day -2/0C at Glasgow airport and very cold at some spots in the UK last night. Thin cloud cover but quite bright, at dusk I could see the clear skies further east with a classic wintry orange/pink haze on the horizon. A strong wind making things feel very chilly as a result of low pressure moving in from the west. Scotland shouldn't be affected by the frontal snowfall but much of the rest of the UK should be affected and today the met office issued the first red warning for snow in two years - for south Wales. Today there has been snow showers around the north sea in a SEly wind and light snow across Wales and England. Tomorrow, snowy for many, drier in Scotland but snow showers for eastern parts of Scotland and overnight the snow risk could increase across a much larger area of Scotland. Staying cold throughout the weekend with an easterly flow and the potential for snow with convection off the north sea. The first three days of next week at least will see the cold spell continue and after that it is uncertain.
18th January:
Probably the most eventful day for snow in the UK since December 2010. The band of precipitation dumped snow over much of Northern Ireland, Wales and England with significant distruption and depths as high as 30cm. There was dedicated special news reports about the situation. Here a lovely but very cold winter's day with a strong wind and plenty of sunshine with the moon visible at dusk but cloud cover increased later in the evening and there was a little bit of snow. A very complicated picture but today probably had the best north sea convective snow shower activity since 2010 with intense squall lines in the evening in northern England and eastern Scotland in a strong SEly. Snow fell in these areas throughout the day but during the evening there was quite intense snowfall in eastern parts of Scotland and the squall line extended as far as the Isle of Skye and the remainder of the front that brought distruption to other parts of the UK brought some snow to southern parts of Scotland. Much of the UK saw snow today and has lying snow and in many areas significant accumilations and even Scotland joined despite the BBC/Met office not forecasting the convective showers at all well. A very cold day here and at Glasgow airport it was 2/-1C today which is very decent seasonal temperatures. Tomorrow, a cold and strong easterly wind should feed snow showers into eastern areas but it could end up being more widespread and a similar theme for Sunday but details will change. Potentially another significant snow event in E England on Sunday and this spreading northwards could make for an interesting day on Monday here in Scotland. Beyond that there is variability between the models with some suggesting the cold spell will continue to last. Despite the lack of lying snow here in comparison to other areas, I've enjoyed the activity across the country and the length and temperatures and weather we've had here has been very seasonal and shall continue to do so and there is a greater risk of snow here in the coming days. Very active period we are in and we've seen some very interesting and exciting weather in the UK.v
19th January 2013:
Today was another cold one 4/0C withb some snow here and at Glasgow airport with just a few showers in he easterly wind. More activity furher east and some light snow across various parts of the UK. Pleasant winter's sunshine earlier but turned a bit cloudier later. A quite day instore tomorrow but Monday could see some snow as the cold snap continues into next week. Sady 4 people were killed in an avalanche at Glencoe.
20th January:
A cloudy, grey day and cold with some snow flurries - 2/1C at Glasgow airport as of 11pm. Some snow flurries in a easterly wind affecting Scotland parts of Ireland whilst an area of low pressure moving north from the continent has brought significant snowfall to SE England aswell as bringing some snowfall for the Midlands, northern England and northern Wales and it's moving further north. More significant snowfall overnight in NE England then spreading into E Scotland, possibly some snow here and hopefully accumilations but it's all about waiting and seeing. There could be further snow for parts of Scotland in the following days, the cold spell lasting till atleast Thursday.
21st January:
A very cold day here (2/1C at Glasgow airport) but there was a strong easterly wind making things feel bitter. On top of that, throughout the morning and afternoon there was snow, there was a covering of snow in the morning with pavements, gardens, driveways etc... all white with a depth of under a cm but that all disapeared very quickly. Atleast there was another lying snow day and i has already been snowier than last January at Glasgow airport with 4 days. Snowfall was variable across Scotland but the borders have been hit very badly and north east England had snow and a little bit of snow in NI. Some significant snow depths of up to a foot in places - certainly this has been the most notable cold spell in the UK since December 2010 but Glasgow and central Scotland has escaped the worst of the snow but it has been a fairly lengthy cold spell. Wind and snow to continue overnight across parts of Scotland lingering all day tomorrow in NE parts. Another cold and cloudy day to follow, then becoming more settled with the potential for some very low minimum values in places. It seems likely that the cold spell will end by Friday but there could be a snow event to come with the breakdown. The atlantic may come back for a while but I wonder what February will jhave instore - could we see another notable cold spell following the effects of the SSW - it will be interesting to find out and certainly will be interesting to see what the mean temperature for January will be, it could be below average despite a very mild first third. Hopefully February will deliver some snow events and interesting weather in what has been a fascinating winter so far.
22nd January:
I think it snowed overnight with an area of precipitation that moed northwards across the central belt and Glasgow airport recorded its 5th day of snow this month. Quite grey the turned a bit clearer in the afternoon for a nice wintry dusk and conditions are much calmer with some clear spells. Maximum of 3C and minimum of -1C, more snow in eastern Scotland and some snow in southern and central parts of England. Depths of over a foot in Deeside . Staying cold and quiet over the next few days before this interesting cold spell will end with possibly a frontal snowfall on Friday followed by milder, wetter and windier conditions - but for how long?
23rd January:
A really cold day with some snow in the morning which was a surprise which left a brief dusting at Bearsden. Temperatures of 2/-2C at Glasgow airport, a mostly overcast day but with a wintry looking cloud cover and some clear patches looking south of Glasgow with a hazy look to it. In the afternoon I went for a drive over the Campsies. Lying snow covered much of the hills down to about 500ft, and it looked distinctly wintry beyond the car park with icicles, snow depths of 5 to 10cm, some drifts, trees covered in snow and on the other side of the Campsies there was lying snow throughout the valley around Fintry towards the hills of Loch Lomond, the Trossachs and Breadalbane but visiblity was very poor with a wintry haze over everything. The Fintry Hills and scenery looked wonderfully snowy and wintry with super colours and scenes and it was fascinating to see how the difference in temperatures on both sides of the Campsies influenced the snow cover. Elsewhere, it was another cold day with some snow showers in southern England and parts of Wales. A cold night and day to follow but very quiet before the breakdown occurs on Friday which could produce one final snowfall of this intruiging cold spell. Milder, wetter and windier for the weekend and possibly into next week but the synoptic situation in Europe will adjust following the change of pattern and it's a question of how well the models are managing the changes. And of course, there is the tropospheric effects from the SSW and this leads to a possibility of further HLB so things will remain changeable but certainly interesting with a variety of feasable outcomes ahead of us.
24th January:
And the cold spell goes on. A quieter day across the British Isles but still some snow flurries in places. No snow here, a cold day with temperatures at Glasgow airport of 4/1C, some sunshine and blue skies but it varied from place to place and during my drive around the Campsies it remained hazy around Loch Lomond and the Trossachs but some fantastic wintry scenes. The breakdown is coming with a front arriving from the west and it could bring some snowfall with it. If temperatures at Glasgow airport stay below 5C then it's another full day of the cold spell but it will end during the weekend with milder, wetter and windier weather. But it has been a memorable cold spell for many reasons, a decent duration of seasonal weather, some impressive snowfalls across the British Isles, 5 snow days in a row at Glasgow airport - the most since Nov/Dec 2010 - and some poor performances from the models. The only thing that my location lacked was a major snowfall but the cold spell made for an interesting chapter early in the year. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1261-snow-the-campsies-240112/"]http://forum.netweat...ampsies-240112/[/url]
25th January:
The cold spell continued for another full day 3/0C at Glasgow airport. A band moving in from the west brought widespread snowfall to many parts of Scotland and northern England with some further significant accumilations and distruption in places.I was in Bearsden all day, there was a covering of snow in the morning then it snow heavily throughout the afternoon, the ground was just a tad too wet for it to settle properly but roofs, grass, cars, pavements and stone walls etc were all white for a time. It has snowed quite a bit here in this spell and today had very heavy snowfall and there has been a covering of snow on numerous occasions but unfortuantly it wasn't much in the way of more significant depths. But I'm unaware of what it was like in Torrance and I think there is a chance that there could have been some depths there. Tomorrow could be sunny, if temperatures stay below 5C then the cold spell continues but there's a chance that it may end here. Then the following days low pressure systems bring heavy rainfall, and wind and milder temperatures and and it could remain unsettled throughout next week but this is subject to change.
26th January:
After 14 days the cold spell is finally over, with the temperature exceeding 5C at around Lunchtime. It was a cold start with some rain and a low of 1C, followed by some lovely sunshine and blue skies but cloud cover increased from the west in the afternoon and heavy rain soon arrived with it. The thin snow cover on the garden had melted by lunch. I went for a drive up the Campsies where depths were over 20cm and there were variations in snow cover across the region. Now milder air with 9C the high so far. But there was distruption in northern and eastern parts of England earlier with snowfall. The unsettled theme will continue with further rainfall and wind and generally less cold temperatures but there is a signal for a return to colder conditions in February.
27th January:
Mild in the arly hours with temperatures around 10C, but it was cooler after that and showery with some hail in the morning and claps of thunder and wintry showers in other parts of Scotland. Temperature dropped to around 2C. There was some sunshine in the morning folowed by a more prolonged period of oragnised showers and some clear spells in the evening aswell as further showers. It will stay changeable, temperatures not notably mild but sometimes cool/average or slightly above, come showery spells aswell as frontal rainfall and quite windy before turning colder towards the end of the week.
28th January:
A wet day with a front moving in from the west bringing some rainfall and quite heavy at times too. It was also windy at times. A bit milder than average at 8/4C and the changeable conditions are set to continue this week, sometimes cool here in Scotland and at times mild in England but it may turn colder towards the end of the week.
29th January:
Some wild conditions today with the wind pickling up during the day with quite strong and fresh gusts right now and some damaging gusts further NW in Scotland. Some rainfall earlier, but an amazing colour to the clouds with the sun setting in the south west. A mild day with maximum temperature of 12C and minimum of 7c and i reached 14.5C at one spot in the UK which is the mildest since November. Here, at least there is currently partly clear skies with stars visible but plenty of clouds moving quickly in the strong wind. Further changeable conditions in the coming days but a colder end to the week is likely - it could end up being a colder interlude but the signals remain for a theme of seasonal and cold conditions into February.
30th January:
Another fresh day with some spells of rain in the form of showers with some sunny and clearer interludes between. Overall quite mild with temperatures of around 9/5C at Glasgow airport and occasionally strong gusts which made things feel pretty cold and unpleasant during the showers. It's quite similar to this time last night with scattered clouds moving swiftly across the sky with the stars, the moon and the night sky visible in the clear patches. Some rain tomorrow across the central lowlands and southern highlands and feeling fresh further north. But turning colder on Friday with northerly winds and wintry showers in places, a cold start to the weekend but milder and wetter conditions rolling ontop of high pressure arriiving from the north west on Sunday and the trend of colder interludes remains into the following week but as always details are not clear.
31st January:
There was some heavy rain and even some hail combined with wind here this morning. Surprisingly the sun did come out for in the afternoon with some pleasant clear skies but there was also some heavy showers around. During dusk and the evening the sky was partly clear with wintry colours in the sky at dusk and stars visible in the evening and clouds scattered around and some impressive cumulonimbus clouds dotted around the area. There may be a spell of rain tonight but it will be colder tomorrow with northerly winds to start February before a brief milder/ wet interlude from the NW is followed by cold north westerly flow bringing showers but it's very hard to call what will happen after the weekend but there's a decent chance of cold spells. There was some wet snow and rumbles of thunders across parts of the central lowlands and southern highlands today. Not confirmed, but max/min temps at Glasgow airport was around 8/4C.
2nd January: A much milder day with a high/low of 11/4C at Glasgow airport. The pleasant and seasonal conditions of yesterday was replaced by a milder atlantic flow as a result of high pressure to our south. It has been a largely dull and overcast day here with spells of light rain and drizzle and this should continue overnight and into tomorrow. This pattern should last from a good number of days but it's anyone's guess as to what follows - how will the current synoptic pattern correspond with stratospheric changes that are afoot.
3rd January:
Another largely overcast, classic atlantic day in the middle of winter. There were spells of drizzle and a little of wind at times. A very mild day too with temperatures at Glasgow airport above 10C all day and max of 12C. This sort of atlantic driven, mild, overcast and at times damp conditions should last for a wee while but the pattern change is on the horizon and as we grow ever closer toward a key period the models should be really exciting to be following right now.
4th January:
Another mild day here with max/min at Glasgow airport of 11/9C. A better day, mostly dry other than a little drizzle at times. There was some decent clear spells and some periods of brightness in the afternoon but the generally cloudy theme continued this evening and should do so for the next 4 days and there should be some spells of rain too as front move in ontop of the high into Scotland and Ireland - NE Scotland best for sunshine. Pretty mild too for the next few days but a pattern change is coming around midmonth but there's great variability at this stage in how the models experiment with the SSW that's very likely but this makes for exciting times with a potentially excellent outcome.
5th January:
Another mild day here. There was some sunshine breaking through the cloud cover in the morning but overcast skies resumed pretty soon with the cold front arriving in the evening. It soon cleared and now it is clear, calm with a starry sky which is nice to see after the previous overcast nights.
The background signals are really looking good for HLB over Greenland. The models are only starting to deal and map out the effects on the SSW so there's a lot of uncertainty and variability so it's about waiting and seeing how the synoptics unfold during the many days to come and it'll be a whilte until we firm up a clear picture about the pattern change. Certainly in about 5 days it will be colder air, probably staying settled aswell. It seems like high pressure will end up between Iceland and Scandinavia and this needs further observation and the Iberian High may push further northwards towards Greeland so there's a lot to look out for, it's early days and there's many hurdles that need to be jumped but the prospects going forward further into January is looking good. It'll be a pleasure to watch this unfold and this sort of spectacle doesn't deserve whinging (in the MT) if all doesn't go well. Loads of potential, it's gonna turn colder, very uncertain and variable but this makes for very exciting and interesting times. It will be fascinating to see this evolve and god knows what sort of progress will be made between this update and the next tomorrow night.
6th January:
Another mild, overcast day with some damp conditions from some weather fronts. The damp conditions should continue tomorrow before turning cooler behind the front and it should stay cool/cold through the rest of next week. The weekend is interesting as the models picked up the idea of high pressure north of Scotland and overnight it should some excellent potential but whatever it brought, it was always going to be a starter as the SSW occured today, the tropospheric effects will occur further down the line and the changes occuring over this coming week and next weekend is a result of the transition of different patters. It's a very variable outlook but the background signals remain decent for HLB that should occur later but the path to HLB remain unclear but whatever unfolds next week in the models will be fascinating and potentiall we could see the high pressure in the atlantic ridge northwards towards Greenland. But it's very early days in this pattern change but it seems that during the process of it all, we'll end up cooler next week, possibly followed up by surface cold and there is potential for the real effects of the SSW to occur later.
7th January:
Another very mild day but it has been dull, overcast, dark, gloomy and very wet with a bit of mist in the evening 10/9C at Glasgow airport. Tomorrow should be wet but clearing and colder air should follow leaving a sunny and cold day on Wednesday, Thursday looking cold too with a front moving in from the west and with high pressure towards Scandinavia, an easterly flow, so a cold weekend but the real uncertainty lurks beyond the weekend - a decent chance of it staying cold but we need to see what sort of charts and scenarios unfold throughout this week.
8th January:
Another mild day with maximum temperature of 11C, grey and wet to begin with but as the cold front cleared it was a clear afternoon allowing for a nice wintry sunset and dusk for once. A starry evening too. A cold night instore, currently 5C at Glasgow airport and there should be fog and mist patches across the British Isles. Tomorrow dry and cold, followed by a widespread frost in the north then a front moving in on Thursday. However with block to our north, a cold weekend looks likey and today, there has been big upgrades in the 12zs and GFS 18z about the snow prospects (particulary in England) for the weekend and it looked good in todays 12z runs for Greenland blocking at a semi-reliable time frame - but there's a lot of scatter in the ensembles so still very uncertain - and FI on some runs has been of epic proportions. Very exciting period of model watching coming up and indeed the actual weather itself should be equally thrilling to follow. Background signals looking good for cold later on - huge potential but very early days. Plus the most users on line was smashed for the GFS 18z.
9th January:
A stunning winter's sunset earlier with red skies to the west and a pale/purple sky to the west. There was a little rain in the early hours with some cloud from the west. There were alternating clear periods and some periods with increased cloud cover but generally it was a bright day - especially when compared to what we've seen so far this month. A cool day too with maximum of 8C and currently a low of 2C at Glasgow Airport. Hopefully by dawn there'll be the first air frost on 2013, and the first since the 13th or 14th of December. Tomorrow could be a cloudy day with the UK sat between two weather fronts but certainly it should be a cold day. The cold theme continues into Friday and especially the weekend should see frosts, cold temperatures by day and increased snow risk for UK, especially in England with the easterly wind but eastern Scotland could see something. Even though it's within the 5 day outlook, there'll be subtle changes which will have a big impact on what happens, so confidence is low regarding the detail of this weekend. A mixed day for high pressure extending to Greenland, the GFS op has had a shortwave drama near Iceland, but FI doesn't fit with the background signals. And much of the other models, and indeed GFS ensembles down support the GFS op and the ECM 12z was another stonker. High uncertainty but thrilling.
10th January:
A return to winter for the first time this month. Current maximum 3C at Glasgow airport and first Air frost - low of -2C - since just before mid-December. However the sun failed to turn up because of quite dense fog this morning and indeed right now and mist and grey skies persisted all day - largely dry too. The potential for snow starts later tomorrow and throughout the weekend into the start of next week. Probably more likely in the east but it's a very complicated picture so we'll only know until the last minute. Temperatures should be low too so this should make for an interesting weekend. And model watching has been gripping today with EPIC ECM runs, consistency in GFS in 06z and 12z with regards to how GFS differs from other models but 18z was an improvement - ensembles paint a different story for GFS - so it continues to be a very volatile affair and anything could happen.
11th January:
Temperatures at Glasgow airport close to normal for winter 6/3C. Quite grey and overcast to begin with, a few clear breaks but a beautiful dusk in the afternoon with clear skies and a wounderful wintry tint of light blue. Now there's a sheet of cloud with a little clear strip to the south. Some drizzle and light rain across the south west during the night, mostly cloudy for Scotland but some clear intervals in the north west. A chilly night too and the colder upper air and sub 528 dam air should spread from the west, a south easterly flow developing and some snow showers for parts of Scotland such as Angus during Saturday. On Sunday a band of precipitation moving in from the north west could bring some snow to Scotland and there are oppurtunities for snow during the early part of next week across the British Isles. Beyond Wednesday next week and it's uncertain.
12th January:
Went to Lochgoilhead during the morning and left in the afternoon. It seemed to be clear skies at dawn, a mixture of clear and cloud patches in the sky on the drive up and at Lochgoilhead, the sun occasionally coming up to give a very wintry golden colour on the mountains (light snow cover down to below 2000ft) and shimmering on the loch. Very chilly in the south easterly wind. Overcast on the way back. At Glasgow airport, another day with typical, quite chilly temperatures of 5/2C, no air frost but atleast the maximum was below 5C which makes things seasonal. It went down to below -7C in the highlands last night. A tiny bit of snow in some parts of eastern Scotland with showers, some snow in a few parts of eastern England with showers, and with a front coming down the from north west there has been some snow in parts of the highlands. Now overcast with this feature getting closer to the central belt. It's unclear whether it'll be snow away from the coast, or snow on the high ground but precipitation from this feature is meant to persist throughout the night, morning and afternoon. Some parts of the country will get a fair bit of snow. Another front follows, potential for snow but the warm sector could be problem. The models show a cold, settled week with the potential for some very low temperatures - through time we'll get more ideas about what the latter part of this coming week will be like.
13th January:
I woke up to fairly moderate-heavy snowfall at 9am which is the first here (Bearsden, and also most likely Torrance aswell) and at Glasgow airport this year. It left a covering of 1cm on top of the car and the trees, cars, grass, roofs and some drive way were all white - surpasses anything that we saw in January or February 2012. But once the snow stopped falling before lunchtime, it was a wet affair and the snow melted quite quickly. I went for a drive to the whangie and in the upper part of Milngavie, Craigton and on the road towards Queen's view there was a lot of lying snow and a winter wonderland - but the precipitation was rain. Then to my surprise, just after that there was no sign of any snow whatsoever in Kilearn, Drymen and Fintry - the whole valley was green. The Campsies was white however with snow falling. Came through Torrance and it was raining but I noticed the remains of some of the lying snow on a few gardens so it was the first falling and lying snow of the year there too - in my snow diary, I've said depth of 1cm which is the highest depth I recorded today at one of the two sites I spend my time at). The snow generally across Scotland was of a wet nature with little significant accumilations across lower levels. Now the same band is bringing snow to large parts of England. A cold day at Glasgow airport, an air frost and maxima/minima of 3/0C makes for a cold winter's day. Tomorrow, another band in the morning but mostly rain in Scotland - then followed by an easterly flow for a few days, pretty cold, then possibly a snowy breakdown for the end of the week but this is very uncertain as we don't know the details that will decide whether it'll be snow, how significant it will be and where, and whether it will be a breakdown at all.
14th January:
It rained during the night but it brought snow to Aberdeenshire and quite a few areas of England but hardly stunning. Some lovely winter sunshine and clear skies through the day and the crescent moon was visible at dusk. With winds turning to more of a north easterly there is currently precipitation in eastern areas. An band of decaying snow showers crossed the area recently and I saw the area of thin cloud cover (with the orange glow of Glasgow) move south across the central belt with the fantastic crystal clear, starry and dark night sky. A cold day at Glasgow airport 4/0C. The next few days probably cold and dry, then there is the potential for a very significant breakdown for the weekend and the cold theme may be maintained beyond anything after this weekend is uncertain.
15th January:
The cold spell continues. Maximum temperature of 3C and currently -4C at Glasgow airport. -12.7C at Braemar and Dyce has recorded it's coldest temperatures since Boxing Day 2010. A glorious winter's day here with frost and a stunning winter dusk with crystal clear sky, not a breath of wind and a crescent moon. There was a little snow in eastern parts of Scotland and in some eastern areas of England and sattelite imagery should that a number of areas have lying snow (mostly on the higher ground). There was further distruption in east Anglia and there's low level lying snow in Aberdeenshire. A front out to the west may bring rain to the western isles of Scotland, if it pushes further inland then there could be snow. Tomorrow, could be a cloudier day here but another cold one. Into Thursday and the cold conditions continue possibly some precipitation here coming off the Irish Sea. For the end of the week there is a battle between the atlantic and cold air. Scotland should keep surface cold and cold uppers, but there's uncertainty about how Scotland could be affected with the band of precipitation that will certainly bring a significant snow event to parts of the British Isles between Friday and Monday. It's a complicated affair but it seems Scotland may hang onto the cold air through next week with possible reloads and potentially a more significant blocking pattern further down the line.
16th January:
The coldest day of 2013 so far. Maximum of 1C and minimum -4C at Glasgow airport. And there was a snow flurry here in the afternoon, part of a patchy band of precipitation moving in from the west that's bringing snow to Wales. A very cold night in Aberdeen - coldest since December 2010 and it dropped to -13C in Norflok. There was some sunshine in the early afternoon but it's dry, cold and cloudy. Overnight it should remain cloudy here but during the day the clear skies in the east should be more widespread during the afternoon. Then Friday is interesting, battleground sets up as a front meeting the cold air turns to snow - met office warning covering much of the UK, amber in parts of England and Wales. But there's lots of uncertainties regarding how heavy and how far east the snow will fall over Scotland - south west of Scotland most favourable for distruptive snowfall. But it looks like staying cold throughout the weekend, snow showers in a SEly flow in eastern Scotland and staying cold into the first part of next week. ECM 12z was a cracker so there's still model variability post Sunday thus lot's of uncertainty but we are in thrilling times.
17th January:
Another cold day -2/0C at Glasgow airport and very cold at some spots in the UK last night. Thin cloud cover but quite bright, at dusk I could see the clear skies further east with a classic wintry orange/pink haze on the horizon. A strong wind making things feel very chilly as a result of low pressure moving in from the west. Scotland shouldn't be affected by the frontal snowfall but much of the rest of the UK should be affected and today the met office issued the first red warning for snow in two years - for south Wales. Today there has been snow showers around the north sea in a SEly wind and light snow across Wales and England. Tomorrow, snowy for many, drier in Scotland but snow showers for eastern parts of Scotland and overnight the snow risk could increase across a much larger area of Scotland. Staying cold throughout the weekend with an easterly flow and the potential for snow with convection off the north sea. The first three days of next week at least will see the cold spell continue and after that it is uncertain.
18th January:
Probably the most eventful day for snow in the UK since December 2010. The band of precipitation dumped snow over much of Northern Ireland, Wales and England with significant distruption and depths as high as 30cm. There was dedicated special news reports about the situation. Here a lovely but very cold winter's day with a strong wind and plenty of sunshine with the moon visible at dusk but cloud cover increased later in the evening and there was a little bit of snow. A very complicated picture but today probably had the best north sea convective snow shower activity since 2010 with intense squall lines in the evening in northern England and eastern Scotland in a strong SEly. Snow fell in these areas throughout the day but during the evening there was quite intense snowfall in eastern parts of Scotland and the squall line extended as far as the Isle of Skye and the remainder of the front that brought distruption to other parts of the UK brought some snow to southern parts of Scotland. Much of the UK saw snow today and has lying snow and in many areas significant accumilations and even Scotland joined despite the BBC/Met office not forecasting the convective showers at all well. A very cold day here and at Glasgow airport it was 2/-1C today which is very decent seasonal temperatures. Tomorrow, a cold and strong easterly wind should feed snow showers into eastern areas but it could end up being more widespread and a similar theme for Sunday but details will change. Potentially another significant snow event in E England on Sunday and this spreading northwards could make for an interesting day on Monday here in Scotland. Beyond that there is variability between the models with some suggesting the cold spell will continue to last. Despite the lack of lying snow here in comparison to other areas, I've enjoyed the activity across the country and the length and temperatures and weather we've had here has been very seasonal and shall continue to do so and there is a greater risk of snow here in the coming days. Very active period we are in and we've seen some very interesting and exciting weather in the UK.v
19th January 2013:
Today was another cold one 4/0C withb some snow here and at Glasgow airport with just a few showers in he easterly wind. More activity furher east and some light snow across various parts of the UK. Pleasant winter's sunshine earlier but turned a bit cloudier later. A quite day instore tomorrow but Monday could see some snow as the cold snap continues into next week. Sady 4 people were killed in an avalanche at Glencoe.
20th January:
A cloudy, grey day and cold with some snow flurries - 2/1C at Glasgow airport as of 11pm. Some snow flurries in a easterly wind affecting Scotland parts of Ireland whilst an area of low pressure moving north from the continent has brought significant snowfall to SE England aswell as bringing some snowfall for the Midlands, northern England and northern Wales and it's moving further north. More significant snowfall overnight in NE England then spreading into E Scotland, possibly some snow here and hopefully accumilations but it's all about waiting and seeing. There could be further snow for parts of Scotland in the following days, the cold spell lasting till atleast Thursday.
21st January:
A very cold day here (2/1C at Glasgow airport) but there was a strong easterly wind making things feel bitter. On top of that, throughout the morning and afternoon there was snow, there was a covering of snow in the morning with pavements, gardens, driveways etc... all white with a depth of under a cm but that all disapeared very quickly. Atleast there was another lying snow day and i has already been snowier than last January at Glasgow airport with 4 days. Snowfall was variable across Scotland but the borders have been hit very badly and north east England had snow and a little bit of snow in NI. Some significant snow depths of up to a foot in places - certainly this has been the most notable cold spell in the UK since December 2010 but Glasgow and central Scotland has escaped the worst of the snow but it has been a fairly lengthy cold spell. Wind and snow to continue overnight across parts of Scotland lingering all day tomorrow in NE parts. Another cold and cloudy day to follow, then becoming more settled with the potential for some very low minimum values in places. It seems likely that the cold spell will end by Friday but there could be a snow event to come with the breakdown. The atlantic may come back for a while but I wonder what February will jhave instore - could we see another notable cold spell following the effects of the SSW - it will be interesting to find out and certainly will be interesting to see what the mean temperature for January will be, it could be below average despite a very mild first third. Hopefully February will deliver some snow events and interesting weather in what has been a fascinating winter so far.
22nd January:
I think it snowed overnight with an area of precipitation that moed northwards across the central belt and Glasgow airport recorded its 5th day of snow this month. Quite grey the turned a bit clearer in the afternoon for a nice wintry dusk and conditions are much calmer with some clear spells. Maximum of 3C and minimum of -1C, more snow in eastern Scotland and some snow in southern and central parts of England. Depths of over a foot in Deeside . Staying cold and quiet over the next few days before this interesting cold spell will end with possibly a frontal snowfall on Friday followed by milder, wetter and windier conditions - but for how long?
23rd January:
A really cold day with some snow in the morning which was a surprise which left a brief dusting at Bearsden. Temperatures of 2/-2C at Glasgow airport, a mostly overcast day but with a wintry looking cloud cover and some clear patches looking south of Glasgow with a hazy look to it. In the afternoon I went for a drive over the Campsies. Lying snow covered much of the hills down to about 500ft, and it looked distinctly wintry beyond the car park with icicles, snow depths of 5 to 10cm, some drifts, trees covered in snow and on the other side of the Campsies there was lying snow throughout the valley around Fintry towards the hills of Loch Lomond, the Trossachs and Breadalbane but visiblity was very poor with a wintry haze over everything. The Fintry Hills and scenery looked wonderfully snowy and wintry with super colours and scenes and it was fascinating to see how the difference in temperatures on both sides of the Campsies influenced the snow cover. Elsewhere, it was another cold day with some snow showers in southern England and parts of Wales. A cold night and day to follow but very quiet before the breakdown occurs on Friday which could produce one final snowfall of this intruiging cold spell. Milder, wetter and windier for the weekend and possibly into next week but the synoptic situation in Europe will adjust following the change of pattern and it's a question of how well the models are managing the changes. And of course, there is the tropospheric effects from the SSW and this leads to a possibility of further HLB so things will remain changeable but certainly interesting with a variety of feasable outcomes ahead of us.
24th January:
And the cold spell goes on. A quieter day across the British Isles but still some snow flurries in places. No snow here, a cold day with temperatures at Glasgow airport of 4/1C, some sunshine and blue skies but it varied from place to place and during my drive around the Campsies it remained hazy around Loch Lomond and the Trossachs but some fantastic wintry scenes. The breakdown is coming with a front arriving from the west and it could bring some snowfall with it. If temperatures at Glasgow airport stay below 5C then it's another full day of the cold spell but it will end during the weekend with milder, wetter and windier weather. But it has been a memorable cold spell for many reasons, a decent duration of seasonal weather, some impressive snowfalls across the British Isles, 5 snow days in a row at Glasgow airport - the most since Nov/Dec 2010 - and some poor performances from the models. The only thing that my location lacked was a major snowfall but the cold spell made for an interesting chapter early in the year. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1261-snow-the-campsies-240112/"]http://forum.netweat...ampsies-240112/[/url]
25th January:
The cold spell continued for another full day 3/0C at Glasgow airport. A band moving in from the west brought widespread snowfall to many parts of Scotland and northern England with some further significant accumilations and distruption in places.I was in Bearsden all day, there was a covering of snow in the morning then it snow heavily throughout the afternoon, the ground was just a tad too wet for it to settle properly but roofs, grass, cars, pavements and stone walls etc were all white for a time. It has snowed quite a bit here in this spell and today had very heavy snowfall and there has been a covering of snow on numerous occasions but unfortuantly it wasn't much in the way of more significant depths. But I'm unaware of what it was like in Torrance and I think there is a chance that there could have been some depths there. Tomorrow could be sunny, if temperatures stay below 5C then the cold spell continues but there's a chance that it may end here. Then the following days low pressure systems bring heavy rainfall, and wind and milder temperatures and and it could remain unsettled throughout next week but this is subject to change.
26th January:
After 14 days the cold spell is finally over, with the temperature exceeding 5C at around Lunchtime. It was a cold start with some rain and a low of 1C, followed by some lovely sunshine and blue skies but cloud cover increased from the west in the afternoon and heavy rain soon arrived with it. The thin snow cover on the garden had melted by lunch. I went for a drive up the Campsies where depths were over 20cm and there were variations in snow cover across the region. Now milder air with 9C the high so far. But there was distruption in northern and eastern parts of England earlier with snowfall. The unsettled theme will continue with further rainfall and wind and generally less cold temperatures but there is a signal for a return to colder conditions in February.
27th January:
Mild in the arly hours with temperatures around 10C, but it was cooler after that and showery with some hail in the morning and claps of thunder and wintry showers in other parts of Scotland. Temperature dropped to around 2C. There was some sunshine in the morning folowed by a more prolonged period of oragnised showers and some clear spells in the evening aswell as further showers. It will stay changeable, temperatures not notably mild but sometimes cool/average or slightly above, come showery spells aswell as frontal rainfall and quite windy before turning colder towards the end of the week.
28th January:
A wet day with a front moving in from the west bringing some rainfall and quite heavy at times too. It was also windy at times. A bit milder than average at 8/4C and the changeable conditions are set to continue this week, sometimes cool here in Scotland and at times mild in England but it may turn colder towards the end of the week.
29th January:
Some wild conditions today with the wind pickling up during the day with quite strong and fresh gusts right now and some damaging gusts further NW in Scotland. Some rainfall earlier, but an amazing colour to the clouds with the sun setting in the south west. A mild day with maximum temperature of 12C and minimum of 7c and i reached 14.5C at one spot in the UK which is the mildest since November. Here, at least there is currently partly clear skies with stars visible but plenty of clouds moving quickly in the strong wind. Further changeable conditions in the coming days but a colder end to the week is likely - it could end up being a colder interlude but the signals remain for a theme of seasonal and cold conditions into February.
30th January:
Another fresh day with some spells of rain in the form of showers with some sunny and clearer interludes between. Overall quite mild with temperatures of around 9/5C at Glasgow airport and occasionally strong gusts which made things feel pretty cold and unpleasant during the showers. It's quite similar to this time last night with scattered clouds moving swiftly across the sky with the stars, the moon and the night sky visible in the clear patches. Some rain tomorrow across the central lowlands and southern highlands and feeling fresh further north. But turning colder on Friday with northerly winds and wintry showers in places, a cold start to the weekend but milder and wetter conditions rolling ontop of high pressure arriiving from the north west on Sunday and the trend of colder interludes remains into the following week but as always details are not clear.
31st January:
There was some heavy rain and even some hail combined with wind here this morning. Surprisingly the sun did come out for in the afternoon with some pleasant clear skies but there was also some heavy showers around. During dusk and the evening the sky was partly clear with wintry colours in the sky at dusk and stars visible in the evening and clouds scattered around and some impressive cumulonimbus clouds dotted around the area. There may be a spell of rain tonight but it will be colder tomorrow with northerly winds to start February before a brief milder/ wet interlude from the NW is followed by cold north westerly flow bringing showers but it's very hard to call what will happen after the weekend but there's a decent chance of cold spells. There was some wet snow and rumbles of thunders across parts of the central lowlands and southern highlands today. Not confirmed, but max/min temps at Glasgow airport was around 8/4C.
0 Comments
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.