Latest weekly guide: Christmas Eve to Sunday 30th Dec 2012 (west wales and the Midlands)
Entry posted by TonyH
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[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled, further spells of rain and localised flooding. Average to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A very wet wet week gone- totals of 50mm for Coventry and 79mm at Llanwnnen, 41mm of this falling in the 24 hours to midnight last night alone at the latter. Coventry and Warwickshire in 2012 has had double the rainfall that fell in 2011, 800mm or so against 400mm or so. Llanwwnen has had a thoroughly wet 1425mm to date in 2012, but should not beat the wettest year recently (1553mm in 2008). These figures will rise a fair bit more in the final week of 2012. With nowhere to go for even modest amounts of rain, this week is bound to see flooding in the news again to varying degrees. It has turned very mild over this weekend and during last night temperaures have been up to 12 or 13c! [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A respite from the incessant rains during Sunday but this is not going to last with the next system already making an appearance on the radar to the SW of Cornwall. A dry, mild but breezy Sunday with some sunny intervals. The next batch of rain comes from a developing wave on a long trailing front running from the English Channel to the Azores. Just how far north this gets tonight dictates how wet it will be, and also how far north the wet weather extends. West Wales looks like escaping with generally light rain tonight while the Midlands could get more signifacant falls, a further half inch or so expected to fall here, leading to additional flooding. Were the frontal wave to be 50 miles more north than predicted then this would bring SW and mid Wales into the risk of heavier rain tonight as well.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149850:PPVE89 wave rain Sun night.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]With the main low centred west of Ireland, another unsettled day on Monday with rain or showers at times, especially for west Wales where these may contain hail. Temperatures on Christmas Eve a little above average at 8 or 9c. What of the Big Day itself! Not as much as a frost to whiten the grass while opening our presents- so not very seasonal in the tradional expectations sense. Yet another trough of low pressure moves across Wales then England bringing further showery rain at times, but at least it will not be raining non stop like on Saturday, and with sunny intervals possible between the showers to get out for a walk! Best check the rainfall radar:[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html"]http://www.metoffice...adar/index.html[/url][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=radarv6;sess=4d42d0b0b318a682ba96ce7cede0677f"]http://www.netweathe...a96ce7cede0677f[/url][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Temperatures close to average reaching around 8c on Christmas Day. So although some rain about, this hopefully not enough to create travel difficulties on the Day itself. Enough clear intervals develping on Christmas night for a ground frost.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149851:PPVJ89unsettled Big Day.png][attachment=149853:ecmt850.048 showery rain Xmas Day.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Boxing Day, and we have a very fleeting ridge that should give at least a dry, bright and possibly frosty morning. However the next in the never ending Atlantic train of lows is steaming towards Ireland.This is set to bring further spells of rain, heavy at times into west Wales in the afternoon, and the Midlands by evening, it will also be windy later. Some heavy showers with hail for west Wales on Boxing Day evening once the main rain passes through along with with blustery winds. Enough clear spells overnight for a ground frost in places.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149852:PPVM89 next L Boxing Day.png][attachment=149857:viewimage more rain Boxing Day pm.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]During Thursday another of those transient little ridges crosses us, so another reprieve from the rains, but any dry weather only likely to be short-lived once more. So the possibilty of a drier interlude to get out and walk the waterlogged fields on Thursday before the next bout of wet weather! A touch colder too on Thursday maxima of 6 or 7c. The next Atlantic system is winding itself up later on Thorsday bringing more fronts in by evening or night. These get us into a warm sector with a long fetch of sub- Tropical mild SW winds which lasts through Friday. So Thursday night is one of those when it actually gets warmer rather than colder, temperatures UP to 10c by dawn on Friday. but with all this mild, moist air comes the threat of more really wet weather for Friday into Saturday. However, we may also be seing the influence of higher pressure over France on Friday, which would mean that the wet weather is restricted to west Wales, while the Midlands ecapes with just drizzle at times. A mild and windy day on Friday with temperatures reaching 12c. [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149854:PPVO89 drier R Thu.png][attachment=149858:viewimage transient R Thu.png] [attachment=149855:ecmt850.144 warm sector mild rain wind Fri.png][/size][/font][attachment=149860:viewimage end week drier Midlands rain WW.png]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Saturday rain will cross all parts followed by colder conditions on Sunday but as they say...this is a long way off! One near certainty is that few of us will have seen barely a snow flake throughout the whole of December. Wonder if this is set to change in the New Year?[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149856:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A very wet wet week gone- totals of 50mm for Coventry and 79mm at Llanwnnen, 41mm of this falling in the 24 hours to midnight last night alone at the latter. Coventry and Warwickshire in 2012 has had double the rainfall that fell in 2011, 800mm or so against 400mm or so. Llanwwnen has had a thoroughly wet 1425mm to date in 2012, but should not beat the wettest year recently (1553mm in 2008). These figures will rise a fair bit more in the final week of 2012. With nowhere to go for even modest amounts of rain, this week is bound to see flooding in the news again to varying degrees. It has turned very mild over this weekend and during last night temperaures have been up to 12 or 13c! [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A respite from the incessant rains during Sunday but this is not going to last with the next system already making an appearance on the radar to the SW of Cornwall. A dry, mild but breezy Sunday with some sunny intervals. The next batch of rain comes from a developing wave on a long trailing front running from the English Channel to the Azores. Just how far north this gets tonight dictates how wet it will be, and also how far north the wet weather extends. West Wales looks like escaping with generally light rain tonight while the Midlands could get more signifacant falls, a further half inch or so expected to fall here, leading to additional flooding. Were the frontal wave to be 50 miles more north than predicted then this would bring SW and mid Wales into the risk of heavier rain tonight as well.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149850:PPVE89 wave rain Sun night.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]With the main low centred west of Ireland, another unsettled day on Monday with rain or showers at times, especially for west Wales where these may contain hail. Temperatures on Christmas Eve a little above average at 8 or 9c. What of the Big Day itself! Not as much as a frost to whiten the grass while opening our presents- so not very seasonal in the tradional expectations sense. Yet another trough of low pressure moves across Wales then England bringing further showery rain at times, but at least it will not be raining non stop like on Saturday, and with sunny intervals possible between the showers to get out for a walk! Best check the rainfall radar:[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html"]http://www.metoffice...adar/index.html[/url][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=radarv6;sess=4d42d0b0b318a682ba96ce7cede0677f"]http://www.netweathe...a96ce7cede0677f[/url][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Temperatures close to average reaching around 8c on Christmas Day. So although some rain about, this hopefully not enough to create travel difficulties on the Day itself. Enough clear intervals develping on Christmas night for a ground frost.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149851:PPVJ89unsettled Big Day.png][attachment=149853:ecmt850.048 showery rain Xmas Day.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Boxing Day, and we have a very fleeting ridge that should give at least a dry, bright and possibly frosty morning. However the next in the never ending Atlantic train of lows is steaming towards Ireland.This is set to bring further spells of rain, heavy at times into west Wales in the afternoon, and the Midlands by evening, it will also be windy later. Some heavy showers with hail for west Wales on Boxing Day evening once the main rain passes through along with with blustery winds. Enough clear spells overnight for a ground frost in places.[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149852:PPVM89 next L Boxing Day.png][attachment=149857:viewimage more rain Boxing Day pm.png][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]During Thursday another of those transient little ridges crosses us, so another reprieve from the rains, but any dry weather only likely to be short-lived once more. So the possibilty of a drier interlude to get out and walk the waterlogged fields on Thursday before the next bout of wet weather! A touch colder too on Thursday maxima of 6 or 7c. The next Atlantic system is winding itself up later on Thorsday bringing more fronts in by evening or night. These get us into a warm sector with a long fetch of sub- Tropical mild SW winds which lasts through Friday. So Thursday night is one of those when it actually gets warmer rather than colder, temperatures UP to 10c by dawn on Friday. but with all this mild, moist air comes the threat of more really wet weather for Friday into Saturday. However, we may also be seing the influence of higher pressure over France on Friday, which would mean that the wet weather is restricted to west Wales, while the Midlands ecapes with just drizzle at times. A mild and windy day on Friday with temperatures reaching 12c. [/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149854:PPVO89 drier R Thu.png][attachment=149858:viewimage transient R Thu.png] [attachment=149855:ecmt850.144 warm sector mild rain wind Fri.png][/size][/font][attachment=149860:viewimage end week drier Midlands rain WW.png]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Saturday rain will cross all parts followed by colder conditions on Sunday but as they say...this is a long way off! One near certainty is that few of us will have seen barely a snow flake throughout the whole of December. Wonder if this is set to change in the New Year?[/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149856:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][/size][/font]
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