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Cooling down or warming up?

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HotCuppa

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I really have no idea where to begin with the new blog of the new year, but anyway.
For the past month or so, we have been receiving what I can only describe as moderately cooler than
normal temperatures, but not on the scale of 2010. If we compare both years, then it's fare to say that
this year would definitely be classed as much milder...why? because back in November 2010, the average
temperature during the final week of the month was around 2C which is significantly colder than this, in fact
we had decent overnight freezing spells.

I cannot say the same for this November no matter how I try to justify the air frosts we have received. The average
overnight temperature as never dipped below freezing in my back garden. I have three measuring systems in place
and all of them have been cleaned up and ready for this winter period.

Air frosts aside. There is a lot of speculation about there being a major cold spell and blocking going to occur
during the early stages of this month.

My take is that unless we see significant cold pooling here in the North, then the only thing we are going to see
is something transistory at the very least. I see nothing to even get excited about..unless you happen to live in
the very far North, for example in Scotland , North East etc. Even those in the east, will see snow showers from
time to time push in land, but as anyone with basic grasp of geography will tell you. Nothing will get over the
pennines.

One of our major problems here in the south of the region, is the amount we are protected or in this case hindered.
The Pennines to the East, The Warm Irish Sea to the West (this can be a good thing if the right conditions occur).
To the South The Welsh Mountains and higher terrain and to the North the exact same thing.

The best chance of snow, always occurs when the upper air temperature hits around -15C. This might seen extraordinary high
but when you factor in the source of exceptionally warm air from the Irish Sea, and other modifying vectors..it's like a once shot
in a thousand we get snow.

There are other scenarios that can play out, where the upper air can be a lot warmer and we still get the snow, but the synoptics
have to be perfect for that to occur. I am afraid to say this next 10 days, the much colder upper air is always likely to be towards
the North East..but there is still a lot of uncertainty, and added to this, is the likelyhood of it being dry and frosty overnight.

I think in the west, we are always liable to rain showers from time to time, especially over the next 10 days or so.
By the week leading up to christmas, I would envision most of the North of the Country is likely to be well under -10C or
even lower upper air, which may well lead to snowfall.

I think for the west right now, it's a case of not happening this time out..it's coming but it won't be here for at least another 10 days
or so, maybe a little longer...but this is the British weather and I suppose anything and everything does happen.
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