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Weather guide Monday 26th November to Sunday 2nd December 2012 (west Wales and Midlands centric!)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Wet start , turning cold later, snow possible next weekend[/b]

An exceptionally wet week with flooding in many areas. Warwickshire having an inch of rain on Wednesday flooding the Avon and other rivers, while it was west Wales turn for floods on Thursday, Llanwnnen getting 30mm. Another deluge in the past 24 hours, Coventry has just had it wettest November day in the 120 year record, and Llanwnnen and most of west Wales picked up another inch! Total rain fall figures for the past 7 days:

Llanwnnen 93mm
Coventry 88mm
Rugby 66mm




At least it was fairly mild! Turning colder in the coming week, more rain at times to Tuesday, then drier, but the threat that things turn wintry by the weekend. Frosts becoming a major feature from mid week onwards.

A respite for a time today before the next low pressure arrives from the SW, hard on the heels of the one responsible for all the flooding this weekend. A scattering of showers already into west Wales with further prolonged rain arriving later this afternoon. The rain should hold off until this evening for the Midlands where it is currently nice and sunny. This latest low crosses Wales then England during Monday bringing further spells of rain or showers at times, some of this again heavy, and exacerbating the flooding. After light winds on Monday morning, there will be a strengthening northerly for west Wales in the afternoon and the Midlands by evening, making it feel quite cold.
[attachment=145815:PPVA89 culprit.png][attachment=145816:PPVG89 Mon L.png]

The low gradually edges away into the Continent on Tuesday but still with a legacy of wrap around rain or showers in places, although some areas will appreciate a somewhat drier day. Quite a cold fresh NE wind in its wake and maxima of just 6 or 7c. Enough breeze on Tuesday night to prevent more than a touch of ground frost in places. With the low well away by Wednesday, this should be a mainly dry day, bar the odd shower here and there. The sun should also make a welcome appearance, although feeling chilly in a fresh NE breeze. Winds will drop off on Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure edges in from the west, so a cold and frosty night, as low as -3c in places, especially Llanwnnen!
[attachment=145817:ecmt850.048 unsettled chilly Tue.png][attachment=145818:PPVL89 L well away dry cold Wed.png]

Increasing uncertainty with the details for the latter part of the week, the one consensus being that it turns decidedly cold with frosty nights. Things are complicated as we are subject to various influences, with low pressure still close by over the Continent but high pressure trying to build to our north. The effect of this build of pressure to our north being to halt the progress of Atlantic lows and therefore keeping any milder conditions well away to our west.

On Thursday then a frosty start looks likely, then a trough of sorts moves down from the north or NW bringing some showers during the day in places, these perhaps wintry over high ground. This trough looks like introducing the cold air proper that then lasts over the weekend. Maxima of 4 to 6c on Thursday with a frosty night to follow, and any showers could well fall as snow over the hills. With low pressure close by to the east, and the possibility that further disturbances (complications) will track south in the generally northerly flow, Friday and the weekend is looking cold with the threat of wintry showers or even longer spells of rain, sleet or snow. Temperatures are certainly suggesting a strong possibility of snow, and for the hills of Wales and the Cotswolds the charts make a snow cover likely by the weekend, this perhaps also coming down to low levels at times too. However, we are usually very marginal for snow in the UK, and the presence of little lows coming down within the north flow means some less cold air would be entrained into these- hence the prediction of rain, sleet or snow. At least a chance then that some of us will be very cold with snow cover this time next week, GFS having highs of just 1 to 3c next Sunday with precipitation knocking about too!
[attachment=145819:ecmt850.096 colder Thu.png][attachment=145820:h850t850eu cold R Thu dry frost.png][attachment=145821:met.96 m dry Thu r cold.png][attachment=145822:ecmt850.168 cold frosty perhaps wintry showers weekend.png][attachment=145823:ukmaxtemp v cold weekend.png]

Whether we are in for a short cold snap or a more prolonged spell of Winter lasting well into December is not yet certain, although it looks like turning milder at least for a while during the following week.
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