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Alps Weather Blog 24th November 2012

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J10

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[b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]
Over the past week, the pattern has been very similar , with low pressure around the UK, which has given the very wet weather and flooding, High Pressure to the East, with the Alps being mostly mild with generally southerly winds.

[url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url] At this stage, the main resorts being features are the glaciers so the mild weather does not have the impact lower down the slopes.

[b]Going Forward[/b]
It cannot have escaped anyone's notice that Northern Blocking has been forecast toward next weekend, the big questions are is it still the case, and what impact does this have for the weather going forward. The charts shown were from Saturday 06Hz, and this has underplayed the cold potential compared to some other charts.

[b]Daily Summaries [/b]

[b]Sat 24 November - [/b]Low Pressure 985mb centred over Iceland and another low pressure centred West of France, set to push in over the UK over next 24-48 hours. North of UK; High Pressure 1030mb centred Western Russia, the Alps again in between weather systems, so mild West/SW flow over the Alps.


[sharedmedia=core:attachments:145607]



[b]Sun 25 November - [/b]High Pressure building over Greenland and Azores, forming a block,two low pressure systems around UK, giving very unsettled conditions here. High Pressure 1030mb centred Western Russia,with Highish Pressure over much of mainland Europe. Light winds generally, but staying mild due to residual airmass.

[b]Mon 26 November - [/b]High Pressure building over Greenland and Azores, forming a block, a low pressure system over South Eastern UK, so remaining unsettled over UK, this gives Northerly winds for UK, and southerly/South Westerly winds for Alps on South Eastern flank of Low Pressure. Further North East into Europe very cold with High Pressure pushing into Arctic from Russia.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:145606]

[b]Tue 27 November - [/b]The pattern moves east, with low pressure east of UK, the Azores High nudging in just west of UK, the links up with Highish pressure over Greenland to give a tenuous block. Low Pressure generally for much of Europe, with a east west split over Alps, cooler the further west you are with Northerly winds, but milder further east with southerly winds. High Pressure continues to build on European side of Arctic.

[b]Wed 28 November - [s] [/s][/b]The low pressure previously to East of UK now moves South East, and is centred over Northern Italy, this gives colder weather for the Alps with North to North East winds, but still not massively cold. High Pressure over Greenland and European side of Arctic, Further west low pressure into the Atlantic, and the Azores High back in its normal place.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:145605]

[b]Outlook - [/b]A lot of uncertainty after this point. some models go for North Easterly winds to bring colder weather over The UK and North Western Europe, but his largely depends on the low pressure in the North Atlantic not interacting with the one over Europe.

I have attached 2 charts one from the 00Hz run, with goes with the not interaction route, and the 06Hz which goes with the interaction route.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:145604] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:145625]

[b]Alps Weather[/b]

[b]Sat 24 November - [/b]Mostly Dry, with Freezing Levels in range 2400m-2700m

[b]Sun 25 November - [/b]Patchy precipitation at times over western areas, with Freezing Levels in range 2200-2400 (west) 2600m-3000m (east)

[b]Mon 26 November - [/b]More General Precipitation for French Alps, and western parts of Switzerland Germany for the morning, becoming patchier in the afternoon but extending into most of Switzerland
with Freezing Levels in range 2200-2400 (west) 2600m-3000m (east)

[b]Tue 27 November - [/b]A cold front moving into western areas overnight, with very heavy precipitation for Eastern France, the far west of Italy, and also fringing SW Germany and Western Switzerland. Snow Levels (1400m on west of front to 1800m (east). By noon, the front has moves east, with the heaviest of precipitation bordering France and Italy and as far east as Milan, and as far north as Wengen. Snow Levels 1600 (w)-2000m (e). Freezing levels generally 1200-1400 west of front, 1800-2200 on front, and 2600-2800 (eastern Austria)

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:145628]

The precipitation continuing right through day, by midnight, heavy precipitation over much of Italy, and Southern Switzerland with some precipitation also for French Alps, rest of Switzerland, S Germany, and W Austria, Snow Levels, 1000-1400m France, 800-1600m Switzerland (NW-SE), 1000-1400m Germany (W-E), 1200-2000m Italy (NW-SE)

[b]Wed 28 November - [/b]The Precipitation continuing through much of Wednesday, with only NE Alps missing out, the heaviest precipitation over Italy and fringing southern Austria, and Switzerland, Snow Levels 800-1400m Western Alps to over 2000m Eastern Alps.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:145629]

[b]Outlook - [/b]Further precipitation seems likely from the low pressure in the area, and latest indications are for Freezing Levels to fall significantly to around 700m-900m North West Alps, and 1200-12600m elsewhere, but this will depend on the boundary on any low pressure system. A lot of uncertainty in the forecast at this point though.

[b]Summary - [/b]After recent mild weeks there is the potential for heavy snowfalls for the Alps, initially more especially for western higher slopes, but probably becoming more widespread to at least medium slopes by mid next week,
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