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Weather guide Monday 19th to Sunday 25th November 2012 (cf. west Wales and central Midlands)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Unsettled, rain and strong winds at times; average to mild temperatures[/b]

Most places reached 13 or 14c mid week, well above the mid November average (10c). Llanwnnen saw the highest reading of the month (13c) on Tuesday afternoon soon followed by the lowest (-1.6c) on Thursday morning. This was due to the importation of less mild Continental air late on Wednesday bringing clearing skies which caused all the fog and local frost on Thursday. It was notable how thick was the fog on the Bablake School, Coventry webcam even into Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile Aberystwyth had a lovely sunny and mild Thursday - big contrasts on that day as Lampeter remained mainly cloudy and cool. A reasonably dry week until the rain Friday evening and night. Plenty of rain in the coming week, heavy at times for west Wales, where a couple of inches is set to fall during the week. Temperatures on the mild side until it cools off by Friday, with frosts likely to be a feature over the weekend again.

A hard frost last night, the coldest of the season to date, down to -5.2c in this particular frost hollow, and colder than any of the official stations in the UK! A fine, fairly sunny afternoon as we are under this transient ridge of high pressure. Atlantic fronts are approaching as witnessed by an increasing veil of high Cirrus cloud through the afternoon which makes the sunshine more hazy over west Wales. So with increasing cloud and breeze this evening means no frost bar a brief touch for parts of the Midlands possibly. Rain and drizzle from later evening for west Wales lasting through to Monday morning, the rain not reaching the Midlands until the end of the night. The cold front brings a period of heavier rain with strong winds through west Wales tomorrow morning and onto the Midlands in the afternoon, this clearing west Wales to a few afternoon showers and sunny intervals. Temperatures reaching a fairly mild 10 to 12c during Monday afternoon.
[attachment=144809:PPVG89 Mon CF rain and wind.png]

From Tuesday through to Thursday we are influenced by a complex of lows close by to our west and north. This means a fairly mild and windy spell, with rain fronts never far away. Tuesday sees active fronts crossing all parts, with spells of rain and strong winds again, but as the winds are southerly we are in a mild air mass, maxima of 13 or 14c. The rain should clear by Tuesday night, then a bit of a respite from the rain during Wednesday and Thursday for the Midlands at least. This is due to a ridge of high pressure nosing towards eastern England and holding the fronts out west. This means that the rain fronts will be slow moving somewhere over western parts mid week. The wet zone was being predicted across west Wales, however this has trended further west over Ireland. There is then still the threat of wet weather edging in from time to time over west Wales during Wednesday and Thursday, although probably not the washout that was previously modelled. A stab at Wednesday and Thursday would be mostly cloudy and windy for west Wales with some rain and drizzle at times, this perhaps turning heavy at times, more especially over Pembrokeshire, where there could be localised flooding. For the Midlands a fairly dry but rather windy couple of days, plenty of cloud, but the sun managing to break through from time to time, and also the possibility of a little drizzle in places too. Continuing on the mild side for all areas, maxima between 10 and 12c with night frosts very unlikely.
[attachment=144810:PPVJ89 very unsettled mild windy Tue.png][attachment=144811:ecmt850.048 rain bands mild wind mon Tue.png][attachment=144812:h850t850eu respite Wed.png][attachment=144813:PPVO89 rain W dry E Thu.png][attachment=144814:ecmt850.096 rain west dry east Thu.png]

Finally, by Thursday night and Friday, the trough is slowly making its way across the UK bringing rain bands or showers to all parts, some of these heavy especially in the west. Lighter winds and a cooler feel for Friday, maxima of 8 to 10c. With clearing skies on Friday night a ground frost is likely.
[attachment=144815:met.120 Tr makes it Thu night.png]

The usual uncertainty by next weekend, our trough should have either weakened or edged away east by Saturday, allowing high pressure into the south. Tentatively then - another largely dry, rather cool and bright interlude for next weekend. Decent sunny intervals and just a few showers about, with frosty nights is how it's looking at the moment. There is though the alternative hypothesis that this could change to a continued unsettled outlook such is the range of possibilities on offer at this range.
[attachment=144816:h850t850eu weekend R.png][attachment=144817:ecmt850.168 rather unsettled again weeknd.png]
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Turning out even wetter a week than expected! Very wet for the Midlands today, over an inch with flooding, due to an active wave slowly crossing there this morning. So much for my 'respite' day!
[url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2012/brack/bracka20121121.gif"]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2012/brack/bracka20121121.gif[/url]

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