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Week ahead for west Wales and the Midlands: Monday 12th to Sunday 18th November 2012

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Fairly dry and mild with some fog[/b]

A mostly dry week gone for the Midlands, but still wet weather to start and end the week here in west Wales giving one and a half inches in total. Rather cool, but never cold and with a few slight frosts too. Quite a lot of dry weather in the week ahead, especially for the Midlands once more, with west Wales more likely to see some rain at times. No day has reached the early November average of 12c thus far at Llanwnnen, so a fairly mild week ahead should be welcome by most normal people (although not by cold weather fanatics!), although it's looking cooler and more unsettled for next weekend.

Still the chance of a shower this afternoon for west Wales, but largely dry and sunny. A ground frost forming this evening, but a warm front arrives by morning clearing this from all but parts of the Midlands by dawn. We enter the warm sector of an Icelandic depression and so milder spell during Monday, which will be mostly cloudy with rain or drizzle at times, west Wales as usual being most prone to this. A mild afternoon for west Wales up to 12 or 13c, although the mild air not arriving until evening over the Midlands, by which time it will reach 10c. It will be quite a windy day. A very mild night to follow, no lower than 9c anywhere.
[attachment=144126:PPVG89 damp WS arrives Mon.png]

The cold front never makes it across and stalls over Ireland mid week, halted by a strong high pressure over central Europe. The ridge from this builds over southern England and Wales mid week, so Tuesday and Wednesday are essentially dry and mild days. Probably remaining cloudy on Tuesday with a fresh SW wind, even some drizzle at times for west Wales, but Wednesday looks a dry day with greater chance of sunny spells developing as winds turn more southerly. Fairly mild again both these days maxima 11 or 12c. With winds falling light during Wednesday night clearing skies will lead to a widespread ground frost and thick fog in places.
[attachment=144127:PPVJ89 WS m dry Tue.png][attachment=144128:PPVL89 R south dry mild Wed.png][attachment=144129:ecmt850.096 mild R dry Wed.png]

Things getting a bit iffy by Thursday as a low sinks to the south-west of Ireland, this perhaps threatening a little rain into west Wales on Thursday, but it is likely that the relatively high pressure over England and Wales keeps it generally dry and bright with sunny intervals, provided the morning fog clears that is. A touch cooler on Thursday maxima around the mid November average of 10 or 11c. Still the chance that more fog could form on Thursday night, but less widespread than on the previous night, and also lesser chance of ground frost too, as milder air starts to move up during the night.
[attachment=144130:met.96 slack foggy Thu.png]

The Euro high that has given the generally dry week declines by the weekend allowing a more westerly influence in. Friday sees mild southerly winds returning, and a front approaching Ireland, this perhaps bringing rain to west Wales later in the day. Temperatures reaching 12 to 14c, the best of the month to date. A more changeable look to next weekend with a band of rain slowly crossing the country to be followed by dry sunny weather (timings uncertain), and a fresher cool feel eventually to the weekend.
[attachment=144131:h850t850eu mild Fri.png][attachment=144132:ecmt850.144 Tr into west Sat.png][attachment=144133:h850t850eu mobile changeable cooler weekend.png]
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