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Weather Guide Sunday 30th September To Sunday 7th October (west Wales And The Midlands)

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[b]Headline: Mostly cool and unsettled, further rain or showers at times[/b]

A cool, even very cool week gone, on both last Sunday and Tuesday temperatures stayed below 11c here at Llanwnnen, 6c below the late September average figure. A wet week too, many of us getting close to 2 inches of rain, although our areas much less affected than the parts of northern England and Wales which saw 4 to 6 inches and flooding. All this rain has still failed to bring us up to the monthly average of 4 inches for September here in Ceredigion, although it has done in Warwickshire where the mean is only just over 2 inches for the month. Another cool and unsettled week to come with rain or showers on most days, the best to hope for temperature wise is the early October average of 16 or 17c. Great uncertainty for next weekend which could be cool or warm, wet or dry!

Mainly cloudy and quite windy through this afternoon and evening with some rain and drizzle on and off, more especially for west Wales, where some could turn quite heavy. Mostly dry after midnight, just a few showers coming into west Wales. Monday a breezy and quite cool day with sunny intervals and occasional showers, mainly in the west, with parts of the Midlands more likely remain dry. Maxima between 13 and 15c. For Tuesday, a complex low is sat to the south-east of Iceland with troughs and secondary systems crossing the UK from off the Atlantic. A very unsettled day with showers turning into longer spells of rain through the afternoon, some of this heavy. A fresh to strong south-west wind, and cool with highs of just 13c for west Wales and 15c at best for the Midlands on Tuesday afternoon, where there will at least be sunny spells before the rain.
[attachment=140880:brack1a showers LSR windy Tue.gif][attachment=140881:Recm722 v unsettled cool mid week.gif]

With a newly formed low crossing Scotland, Wednesday is a cool and breezy day with sunshine and showers. West Wales looks very prone to showers coming off the relatively warm Irish Sea throughout Wednesday, these being heavy with hail at times. Fewer showers getting through to the Midlands which will benefit from shelter from the Welsh hills, which will kill off most of the showers as they move east. A very cool day with all the showers for west Wales, perhaps no higher than 12c here, while with some decent sunny spells for the Midlands it should manage 14c.
[attachment=140882:brack2a cool showery wed.gif][attachment=140883:Rtavn904 very showery WW Wed.png]

Discrepancies have been showing in the model runs for Thursday onwards really in their outputs over the past few days. Once again it is ex hurricane Nadine that is partly responsible for this model variation. Yes, she is still alive and kicking out in the mid Atlantic west of the Azores! This time she decides to merge with a low system leaving Newfoundland off North America, with her energy impetus perhaps set to spread north-east towards the UK this next weekend? However, some of the latter model trends are indicating that the warm tropical energy of the Atlantic low complex remains out to our west, and instead a cool high pressure builds in over the UK in time for next weekend.
[attachment=140884:brack4 merging Nadine Thu with energy to our SW.gif][attachment=140885:Recm1202 merging Nadine Fri.gif]

Before this though, Thursday looks rather cool and showery, although a slight bump of relatively high pressure may limit showers compared to Wednesday. Friday looks like another cool and unsettled day with some further showers or longer spells of rain, as a small low system crosses either southern or eastern England. Perhaps a better chance of a dry afternoon for at least west Wales though? Temperatures poor for early October once more reaching just 12 to 14c.
[attachment=140886:Recm1442 cool some showers Fri.gif]

A tremendous amount of uncertainty then for the weekend, we either get a dry, coolish one, courtesy of high pressure building over the UK on Saturday, OR the energy of ex Nadine, perhaps by then to the west of Ireland, sweeps up from the south-west. This would mean some heavy rain from the trough introducing the tropical air during Saturday, but then a warm, sunny Sunday, with recent GFS output showing maxima of 22c for the Midlands next Sunday! We shall see, but reality probably lies somewhere between these two very different scenarios!
[attachment=140889:Rukm1441 H Sat.gif][attachment=140887:Rtavn1501 uncertain Wend milder SW flow perhaps.png][attachment=140888:Recm1682 cool H Sat dry.gif][attachment=140890:Rtavn1802 warmth weekend rain to dry ta Nadine.png][attachment=140892:Rtavn18617 warm Sun GFS.png][attachment=140893:Recm1922 dry Sun warm air to SW.gif]
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