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Weather Guide Monday 24th To Sunday 30th September 2012

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TonyH

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[font=verdana, sans-serif][b]Headline: [/b][b]Cool a[/b][b]nd very unsettled: showers or longer spells of rain; windy to mid week.[/b][/font]

[font=verdana, sans-serif]Last week's guide underestimated the showers that streamed off Cardigan Bay into Ceredigion from Monday to Wednesday and which gave a quarter of an inch of rain at Llanwnnen during this period. However other areas such as Warwickshire and Carmarthen saw very few showers and stayed mainly dry. A decidedly cool week, the highest reading being just 16c at Llanwnnen, very poor for September when it can still be much warmer than this. Many places saw a ground frost early on Saturday, even with the first air frost of the Autumn here at Llanwnnen, down to -1c - colder than any of the official Welsh weather stations![/font]

[font=verdana, sans-serif]As mentioned last week ex Hurricane Nadine is affecting our weather and will be partly responsible for the very wet week ahead. Coventry and Rugby have had only had 9mm rain so far this month, a figure that is set to rise quickly over the next few days. A deep low pressure, spawned from the warm, humid circulation of Nadine, out in the Atlantic west of Spain, is set to wander about the UK between Monday and Thursday bringing strong to gale force winds and spells of heavy rain, before eventually filling up in situ. A measure of the warm tropical air within this system is that parts of southern France are hitting 90 f today! [/font][font=verdana, sans-serif]The low pressure system born from this hot tropical air meeting the diving Jet Stream is currently over the Bay of Biscay, deepening and is headed our way, an awful lot of weather energy. [/font][font=verdana, sans-serif]No hot air getting this far north as we remain north of the Jet Stream, in fact another decidedly cool spell to come, with the low 60's the best we can hope for. Two to four inches of rain is modelled to fall over the next 4 days, with the highest totals likely for Wales, where localised flooding could be a problem, although at least the deluge is coming on the back of a dry spell.[/font]
[font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140506:Rtavn16218 very wet week!.png][/font]

[font=verdana, sans-serif]The cloud shield has already spread to most of England and Wales well ahead of the system, while the wind and rain is over southern parts on the first of a series of associated weather fronts set to move north today, tonight and through tomorrow. So a dull, windy afternoon and evening with rain soon spreading north, this becoming heavy at times and lasting through the evening. Very cool indeed today, temperatures only reaching 11 or 12 c ahead of the wet weather this afternoon. The exact track still somewhat unpredictable, but this deepening low set to move into southern England by Monday morning, so further spells of rain tonight and tomorrow morning, again heavy at times, and potentially some large totals-well in excess of an inch totting up by then. The low then gradually edges north through Monday which should see the worst of the rain clearing north with it, but some doubt over this. In any case a very cool, windy afternoon with showers or longer spells of rain, maxima just 12 to 14c. Interestingly by tomorrow afternoon our low will have merged with another low that has moved into the UK from the north-west so a double whammy of storms really tomorrow! No doubt that there will be gales in some regions from the low tonight and tomorrow, although at this stage it would seem that Wales and the Midlands are spared the worst of these with just typical strong Autumnal winds blowing off the leaves and twigs.[/font]
[font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140504:brack0a DL E Eng Mon cool wet windy.gif][attachment=140505:Rtavn301 Mon DL Eng wet cool windy.png][/font]

[font=verdana, sans-serif]The low then meanders south-west into Ireland for Tuesday which will be another very unsettled and windy day with showers or longer spells of rain, very heavy at times. At present Wales is modelled to have the worst of the rain on Tuesday with a further inch set to fall, however this may well change as we get nearer, but something to be aware of with respect to flooding possibilities on Tuesday. Cool again, and should the rain sit over Wales then maxima no higher than 12c here, while sunny intervals means a touch warmer for the Midlands up up 15c. Wednesday looking like another very disturbed day indeed with yet more showers or longer spells of rain, with the low now wandering about southern England. Wednesday then, the third successive day when heavy rains are expected to fall quite widely over Wales and the Midlands, and so further flooding prospects. Some of the showers could have hail and thunder too during Wednesday, and with less wind these storms could be slow- moving. Needless to say another mainly cloudy and cool day, although somewhat less cool than the start of the week. The kind of day when any sunny intervals just help the shower clouds to build up even more![/font]
[font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140507:brack1a Tue DL Irish Sea showerr LSR cool windy.gif][attachment=140508:Rtavn601 DL Irish Sea Tue.png][attachment=140509:Rtavn6017 potrentially v cool wet Tue Wales.png][attachment=140510:brack2a DL south Wed very disturbed cool again.gif][/font]

[font=verdana, sans-serif]At last, by Thursday our persistent low has filled up and is slowly edging away, so probably less in the way of heavy rain and showers, although far from being a dry day, still with occasional showers but also sunny intervals between. Temperatures closer to average up to 15 - 17c and with lighter winds again. An improvement of sorts. [/font]
[font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140511:brack4 L away less showers cool.gif][attachment=140512:Recm1202 Thu L gets east fewer showers still cool.gif][/font]

[font=verdana, sans-serif]Things may continue to improve somewhat into next weekend, although uncertainty abounds as usual. Some further rain or showers still likely during Friday and Saturday as a trough moves across, steadily this time from the west, so any rain clearing much more quickly. Although not exactly a fine, dry weekend, much less in the way of rain than the first part of this week, a chance to mop up! Feeling more pleasant in any sunny spells too, temperatures around the average for the end of September at 16 or 17c. Perversely, the beginning of October is looking warm and sunny! [/font]
[font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140513:Rukm1441 COL Fri m dry few showers warmer.gif][attachment=140514:Rtavn1621 drier warmer weekend.png][/font]
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