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Weather Guide Monday 10th To Sunday 16th September (west Wales And Central Midlands Compared)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Unsettled with some rain at times, and often windy; cool to average temperatures. Fine prospects next weekend[/b]

A virtually bone dry week just gone for a change, and a warm one too. Temperatures reached 25c in Warwickshire and 22c at Llanwnnen, very respectable levels now we are into September. Sunday is the day of changeover to cooler and more unsettled conditions that will predominate in the coming week. Occasional rain, although not with especially large amounts, along with some strong winds at times during this week ahead. Good prospects currently for next weekend.

The warmth and sunshine is hanging on for one last day over the Midlands, temperatures up to 25c once more. However although fairly warm this morning, it is now cloudy and quite windy here in west Wales. After a lovely Sunday, it will cloud over by this evening for the Midlands but remain dry. For west Wales this afternoon, mostly cloudy and quite windy and some rain will spread over during the course of the afternoon and this evening, although probably not so heavy for most parts. Some mostly light rain at times for many places tonight, and a fairly warm night too with all the cloud. This rain is along a cold front attached to a deep low over Iceland, and we are still in this low's circulation during Monday. A generally dry day for the Midlands on Monday with sunny spells, and a dry morning for west Wales too. However, there is a second cold front slowly crossing Ireland which will bring some more rain into west Wales later in the afternoon and into the evening, and slow progress, but some of this rain getting into the Midlands too during Monday night. Temperatures close to the average on Monday reaching 18 to 20c in a moderate south-west breeze, so perhaps feeling quite pleasant for the Midlands tomorrow.
[attachment=139663:brack0a second CF approaches.gif]

With the cold front clear, Tuesday is a bright and breezy day with a few showers scattered about. Temperatures down so reaching just 15 to 18c, and feeling cool with a fresh westerly wind. More fronts come swiftly in off the Atlantic during Tuesday night bringing bands of rain, these lasting well into Wednesday, and this time some of the rain could be heavy, so this should be the wettest day of the week. It will also be quite windy and cool on Wednesday with temperatures of 18c at best.
[attachment=139664:brack1a bright breezy cooler Tue.gif][attachment=139665:Rtavn602 cool breezy Tue.png][attachment=139666:brack2a succession of fronts Wed windy.gif][attachment=139667:Rtavn781 rain cool Wed.png]

We are within the broad warm sector of the next and deep Atlantic low by Thursday morning, with high pressure over the Bay of Biscay having an influence. The Midlands may well have a mostly dry day with some warm sunny intervals developing, but cloudier for west Wales with a little rain or drizzle in places too. Temperatures reaching 18c or so for west Wales but up to 21c where it brightens over the Midlands on Thursday.This contrast is due to our being in a warm Tropical maritime airmass which commonly dries out after crossing the Welsh hills to give warm, bright weather for the Midlands, while west Wales often stays dull and damp. More general rain for all likely during Thursday night as the cold front comes through. This deep low then moves into Scandinavia during Friday, so more strong winds to come, but with any rain soon clearing to sunny intervals and showers, some of which will be heavy. With the north-west winds quite a cool day on Friday.
[attachment=139668:Recm962 R Thu.gif][attachment=139670:Rukm961 Biscay H drier Thu.gif][attachment=139669:Rtavn1022 warm sector windy Thu.png][attachment=139671:Rtavn1261 DL Scand Fri showery.png]


Next weekend is looking promising at this stage (a long way off!) for coinciding with a dry, bright and rather warm interlude. The ECM model even keeps high pressure in charge well into the following week, so Summer may not be quite done for yet! Should these (one models) charts come off then it will be very warm, well into the 70's f by a week Monday, we shall see?
[attachment=139672:Rtavn1621 weekend H.png][attachment=139673:Recm1682 H south warm dry weekend prospect.gif]
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